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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM !!!

Yes yes.... a bit slow lol, but bloody hell! 

144.....?

Edit

??????

IMG_3423.thumb.PNG.56457c0f92cf5ec3309007d6a1500eaa.PNG

Edited by chris55
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Liking the ECM T144hrs output .

Even better than the UKMO.

As that lady said in Total Recall. Get ready for a surprise ! :cold-emoji:

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

ECM1-168.GIF?09-0

Oh no, I don't think I can do it all again!

Edited by SN0WM4N
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The UK had its coldest  March day since records began last week.

It now needs to aim for the latest point in spring where a sub zero maximum was recorded.

The only way to get that is from the beast from the easts love child ! :)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Exciting stuff from the Ecm 12z..hope it happens, if it does then exeter will be changing their Meh updates rather quickly!!:D:cold-emoji:

Gfs 12z came close to a Boom too!..could it really happen again?☺?:D

144_mslp500.png

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850_arc.png

168_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

The beast has landed, here we go again.:yahoo:

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Popular Post
Posted

BOOM

YES,looks like those who missed the snow get a second chance.Bitter air moving in AGAIN

 

March the new winter month:cold:

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Oh my ! ECM day 8 mini beast arrives !

All this happens because of events around T120hrs .

Elongated Atlantic trough , then a more negative tilt at T144hrs.

If you get the good start the mini beast has a chance .

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Oh my ! ECM day 8 mini beast arrives !

All this happens because of events around T120hrs .

Elongated Atlantic trough , then a more negative tilt at T144hrs.

If you get the good start the mini beast has a chance .

The mini beast looks good :) mini'ish but still beastly :0

 

 

 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Can't believe this is happening lol ?. When I see the Icon , GFS and UKMO earlier I just New the easterly was coming on the ECM . We haven't had an easterly in years , are we about to get 2 in 2 weeks ? Let's hope so ?

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Could this be the time in ages ECM picks something up first and takes it to reality? GFS is close but no cigar and GEM says no

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.e083bbd4a26b889d759d3a3fa9a45ff1.GIFgfs-1-216.thumb.png.7a8e338235be5b978fcf0a19e7436b72.pnggem-1-216.thumb.png.1472df8f0108728c52fe045d3637743b.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Don't know if my heart can take the excitement of another siberian chase...but I'll risk it..:D the Ecm 12z has reignited hopes for coldies again!!:cold-emoji: 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Could this be the time in ages ECM picks something up first and takes it to reality? GFS is close but no cigar and GEM says no

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.e083bbd4a26b889d759d3a3fa9a45ff1.GIFgfs-1-216.thumb.png.7a8e338235be5b978fcf0a19e7436b72.pnggem-1-216.thumb.png.1472df8f0108728c52fe045d3637743b.png

If the GFS removes the bloated trough at T120hrs hrs then it could evolve towards the ECM.

That really is crucial as that elongated troughing helps to push some warmer air nw ahead of it and better trough disruption afterwards with more forcing from the ne.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Didn't expect to post in here again this season but wow! The ecm is incredible. I actually prefer this version of the beast to last week's. This one doesn't mess about and gets to the UK in quick fashion so the angle of attack is cleaner. Last week's took an age to get to our shores and because of this, the winds veered south easterly too soon for my liking. This in turn cut short the cold spell. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

An Ian Brown WTF moment...

Wow! Not as severe as the last but all precipitation snow here temps not much above freezing, really quite something.

57C46FFC-A36F-4E6E-A8BE-C96B0B077E21.thumb.png.c87bf276aff254a9a41f8d277384a8c1.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Omg-im quickly back out of hibernation...

Dramatic stuff!!!!

Here we go again folks!!!!!??

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