Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh come on ECM. I'm still catching up on sleep from the last chase!

Seriously, this has no support from the ensembles. Need to see this repeated before getting carried away.

This eps suite isn't out though yet so you never know - there might be a few members although definitely scepticism should remain as ive never seen one of these 'ECM 240 suddenly picking out a potent Easterly with no support and then verifying' scenarios that people go on about so support would have to grow very quickly to be taken seriously BUT the GEM op albeit with a variation was drawing frigid air closer to our NE and there were some GEFS hinting also and another cluster going for genuine Greenland height rises.

[Frosty.]

Well it's day 10 but I wouldn't mind this being the trend..drops the northerly idea of recent runs but who would care about that if we have another Beast on the way!..great finish to the Ecm 12z..wish I could have seen days 11..12..13! 

[stodge]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This eps suite isn't out though yet so you never know - there might be a few members although definitely scepticism should remain as ive never seen one of these 'ECM 240 suddenly picking out a potent Easterly with no support and then verifying' scenarios that people go on about so support would have to grow very quickly to be taken seriously BUT the GEM op albeit with a variation was drawing frigid air closer to our NE and there were some GEFS hinting also and another cluster going for genuine Greenland height rises.

Indeed and both GEM and ECM this morning were hinting at a new HP to the north of Scandinavia.

It's reasonable to be cautious and sceptical without being too much of a "wet blanket" - if I was in Denmark I'd be getting interested and that's a seriously cold pool of air (-20 to -24 uppers) to the north of that LP moving into Finland and the Baltic States.

Let's see where the morning takes us - even the 12Z GEFS has one or two members hinting at the NE height rise so I'd question it has "no support". It's a wild card at this time and unlikely to verify.

[Daniel*]

ECM is very interesting it’s lined up for an easterly feed again ! seemingly winter is not finished with us based on OP still a lot of deep cold air available not far away, honestly it wouldn’t be overly surprising if we saw a cold spell albeit more muted to last. Still could see some unseasonable cold..

Edited March 7, 2018 by Daniel*

[cold snap]

Deep cold incoming on the ECM 240.

All the ingredients in place.

Who's coming back on the beast from the east ride?

Doubt it has much support 

[stodge]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM is very interesting it’s lined up for an easterly feed again ! seemingly winter is not finished with us based on OP still a lot of deep cold air available not far away, honestly it wouldn’t be overly surprising if we saw a cold spell albeit more muted to last. Still could see some unseasonable cold..

Actually what would be less surprising is if we saw a warm spell followed by a cold spell - that happens quite often in spring so it's 15c one day and 5c the next.

Without the mitigation of an Atlantic jet, it's highly likely we could see some sharp oscillations this month.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh come on ECM. I'm still catching up on sleep from the last chase!

Seriously, this has no support from the ensembles. Need to see this repeated before getting carried away.

It doesn’t ?

the day 8 cluster had the anomoly to our ne - the difference days 9/10 is the polar ridge which is notoriously difficult to model 

yesterday’s spreads had a ne Scandi  high 

whilst this is an unlikely solution, l I wasn’t surprised to see it emerging 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

Deep cold incoming on the ECM 240.

All the ingredients in place.

Who's coming back on the beast from the east ride?

Doubt it has much support 

I looked at this and thought Beast from East 2.0 it’s actually scary how alike the trigger is. 

If we did mange deep cold then cold rain would be off the menu at least even at this time of year.. I bet this has limited support but we gotta start somewhere, let’s be honest here whatever happens warmth ain’t happening. So if it’s going to be cool, then it may as well be cold to make things more interesting. 

Also interesting would be the convection with strengthening sun.   

[cold snap]

32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM struggling to get the Atlantic troughing into mainland Europe and drops the tease of the mini beast from the east  perhaps trying to  paying a visit !

 

It's all there in black and white .part 2 beast from the East anyone 

[cold snap]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I looked at this and thought Beast from East 2.0 it’s actually scary how alike the trigger is. 

If we did mange deep cold then cold rain would be off the menu at least even at this time of year.. I bet this has limited support but we gotta start somewhere, let’s be honest here whatever happens warmth ain’t happening. So if it’s going to be cool, then it may as well be cold to make things more interesting. 

Also interesting would be the convection with strengthening sun.   

There will be no cold rain if that pattern came to fruition.Snow on the menu again.

[phil nw.]

 Interestingly gefs T240 shows some signs of +ve ht anomalies to our ne so the ECM t240hrs may have some support in it's ens when they come out.

It does look very cyclonic around the UK for the next 10days on those gefs that's for sure.The Atlantic troughing being squeezed this way between +ve ht anomalies north and south.Promising to be often wet and rather cold and with chances of some more snow further north and over higher elevations at times.

[Winter80s]

Turn up 4 the books tonight n the midlands.  Not a surprise if it happens.  As I predicted.  Beast us lurking

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has low pressure to our SW rain in the south and west drier the further north and east you go

[stodge]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has low pressure to our SW rain in the south and west drier the further north and east you go

I'd also note the ridge south from Greenland into the mid Atlantic.

[Summer Sun]

The area where the ECM 12z Op takes the 850's down towards -20 or lower compared with the mean

Safe to say it has gone off on one

Edited March 7, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Gray-Wolf]

There is a ghost in the machine!

Somewhere there is a mighty amount of energy waiting to manifest in the models but the models are not sure yet just what to do with it?

If it is to be the Arctic again spilling its guts then it will bode very badly for the year as we haul out into spring.

[phil nw.]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The area where the ECM 12z Op takes the 850's down towards -20 or lower compared with the mean

Safe to say it has gone off on one

It looks like from the longitude reading it's for much further east SS!

[bluearmy]

Some support on the spreads and a little on the mean - I doubt we will see that ridge in the morning

the extended this evening even more convincing on the mid Atlantic ridge and associated euro trough 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

It looks like from the longitude reading it's for much further east SS!

He does say that on his post Phil 

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

He does say that on his post Phil 

Ah yes-"the area" i see-Estonia ed,Latvia.

Edited March 7, 2018 by phil nw.

[Mike Poole]

It's kind of strange in here after the cold spell. Some wanting Spring, some wanting more Winter, maybe most a bit epic-spell-posting weariness, but the ECM 12z mean looks to me like an ongoing rain fest at least for the South, horrible.  For those trying to salvage something, at the moment I don't see it, here at T240:

GEFS mean at same time:

Abandon hope all who enter here!

Edited March 7, 2018 by Mike Poole

[nobble]

27 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

There is a ghost in the machine!

Somewhere there is a mighty amount of energy waiting to manifest in the models but the models are not sure yet just what to do with it?

If it is to be the Arctic again spilling its guts then it will bode very badly for the year as we haul out into spring.

Regarding recovery of temps ?

[cold snap]

Enough amplification is going to be hard to find now.if it doesn't amplify enough then it's cold wet and windy 

[Bartlett High]

We've had a great end to winter looking forward to some spring warmth now TBH  hope the ECM is wrong!.

[Chesil View]

The thing is most cold spells start off as an op or ensemble run that appears to have "gone off on one" ?