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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards


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And it's 'eyes down' for the full house......Tonight's bingo card!  

BINGO!    Full House.....  ;-)   Oh my goodness, my giddy aunt What is this, spring with a new slant? I said I didn't want you, go away snow But I'm here again, eyes all aglow

To help pass the time, lets play a game....Netweather South West Thread Bingo.....no prizes for the winner apart from the accolade of being a bit of a smarty pants

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5 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

According to the radar, rain is already turning to snow in some parts of the region. 

20180317_071554.png

I am under one of those pink spots but I can confirm no snow or rain at this moment! Temp going down fast though and wind getting up!

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Temperature dropping fast here, 3.1c a drop of 3c in under 2 hours.

wind really picked up as well, seems windier than big daddy Beast #1

Edited by karlos1983
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Temperature dropping fast here, 3.1c a drop of 3c in under 2 hours.

wind really picked up as well, seems windier than big daddy Beast #1

Yes, temp seems to be dropping fast. There isn't meant to be any disruptive snow here through the day is there? I have two boys heading to work soon. During the last beast everywhere closed suddenly and it was bedlam with everyone trying to get home. One of my boys had to walk 4 miles home in it

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7 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Quick update on my planted tank, before I head to Bedfordshire.

1b58db76cb530888c0e77dda246163aa.jpg 206a8844d9e74fe4bad50fa3c6104943.jpg aedbce1c7d8ce4f427166e82b0c7fe26.jpg 404ed665f29e7c11a254735049b9f0a7.jpg

https://warehamwx.co.uk/lychee/#15212425696706

https://warehamwx.co.uk/lychee/#15200334392331

Fantastic looking tank Mapantz. I've got a tiny 47L but I'm just a beginner so that's enough for me to manage.  When we had Beast 1 a couple of weeks ago our power was on and off like crazy. The house got freezing so I wrapped the little things in a blanket. In their tank of course ???

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EARLY MORNING UPDATE

Right now, I'll look at the overnight developments and what's in store for us today. Later this morning I'll look at the snow prospects for tomorrow and Monday. I'm delighted to say that the Meteoceil UK view radar fault has been fixed overnight just in time for the incoming cold and snow. So let's start with that:

          Live UK Rain/Snow Radar                            NW Radar 0740 Sat                                  Live Euro Satelitte                           Live Euro Infra Red Satelitte                 Fronts & Troughs at 0000 GMT Sat  

lastsnowradar_uk.gif     0740.thumb.PNG.6c76dc4fba966b73cd4c119dd0d6a664.PNG     anim_ir.gif    anim_ir_color.gif    analyse-2018-03-17-00.png

The snow is very close to us already! The cold front which was over eastern and northern England at midnight is now aligned from the Thames estuary and west-north-westwards through the south Midlands and into central Wales. The very cold continental air is immediately behind it. There is some fairly light snow associated with it which "had" been dying out. It looks like this band may reinvigorate a little as it pushes into our region during the next couple of hours (it's 0645 as I write this bit) - so "perhaps" a light dusting. The ground temps are still high (see below) right now and it'll struggle to settle and will melt initially. Then the focus for the rest of today and tonight will be on the snow showers that will follow on from later this morning. The lower level convection is almost as strong as it was 2 to 3 weeks ago. Just look at the almost continuous snow showers pilling into to all eastern parts from Scotland down to The Wash. They are already pushing well inland. You can clearly see the undercutting from the east with the low level grey cloud on both satelitte images. 

               Live Euro Pressure                     Pressure 24 hours to 0550 GMT  Sat          ECM 0z T+0 for 0000 GMT Sat                   Met O Fax 0600 Sat Mar 17th               Met O Fax 0000 Sun Mar 18th    

pression2_eur2.png   tempresult_pfe2.gif   ECH1-0.GIF   20180317.0650.PPVA89.png  20180317.0442.PPVE89.png 

The Scandi HP has settled over southern Norway, intensified overnight and almost completed its axis re-orientation from north/south to east /west. A very strong easterly-south-easterly flow is in place with strengthening easterly winds. The flow will back a little more to the east (with east-north-easterly winds) during today. In the current ECM chart you can see that this easterly has a feed from northern Siberia, through northern Russia, eastern Scandinavia, north-east Europe, then across Europe into the UK. This morning's fax (hot off the press) shows a complex succession of fronts and troughs clearing through our region. These are catching each other up and this is why the snow band associated with them is re-invigorating slightly. By midnight you can see that quasi stationery troughs have formed during today (the black toothed lines). One of these runs into Lincs just north of The Wash and another is the "Thames Streamer" There is also a wriggle developing on the front that cleared us this morning. That's the first sign of tomorrow's snowfall (more on that later this morning). 

               Live Euro 2 M Temps                    Temps 24 hours to 0600 GMT  Sat             Live Euro Dew Point Temps                    Live Euro Windchill Temps               ECM 0z T+0  850s as at 0000 GMT Sat

temp_eur2.png   tempresult_evm7.gif   pointrosee_eur2.png   windchill_eur2.png   ECH0-0.GIF

You can see that sub zero temps have now pushed down across all of northern and north-west Europe as far as Belgium as well as into Suffolk. The 7c on the south coast in our region will be replaced by a 1c during the next 2 to 3 hours. If anything the values are slightly lower than forecast. It looks like much of the UK will be at or just below zero by midday. The very low 850s are also pushing in. I would say the peak of the cold will be early on Sunday morning. I'll leave you with a cross section of temperature charts (without comment).  More later this morning on the snow.

            Live UK 2 M Temps                      2 M temps for 0600 GMT Sat Mar 17th  2 M temps for 1200 GMT Sat Mar 17th   2 M temps for 1800 GMT Sat Mar 17th   2 M temps for 0000 GMT Sun Mar 18th 

temp_uk.png  arpege-41-6-0.png?17-04  arpege-41-13-0.png?17-04  arpege-41-18-0.png?17-04   arpege-41-24-0.png?17-04

       Live UK Dew Point Temps               850 temps for 0600 GMT Sat Mar 17th  850 temps for 1200 GMT Sat Mar 17th   850 temps for 1800 GMT Sat Mar 17th   850 temps for 0000 GMT Sun Mar 18th 

pointrosee_uk.png  arpege-16-6-0.png?17-04  arpege-16-12-0.png?17-04  arpege-16-18-0.png?17-04  arpege-16-24-0.png?17-04 

        Live UK Wind Chill Temps               Wind Chill temps for 1800 GMT Sat       Dew Point temps for 1800 GMT Sat        Ground temps for 0600 GMT Sat            Ground temps for 0000 GMT Sun

windchill_uk.png  arpege-43-18-0.png?17-04  arpege-18-18-0.png?17-04  6-543UK.GIF?17-0  24-543UK.GIF?17-0

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts
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Morning snow lovers.

Light snow. Not settling as yet. Radar looking promising.

Brisk North Easterly Breeze.

Temp 1C  Humidity 82%  Dewpoint -1C Pressure 1008.0

Edited by EllyTech
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3 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Morning snow lovers.

Light snow. Not settling as yet. Radar looking promising.

Brisk Easterly Breeze.

Temp 1C  Humidity 82%  Dewpoint -1C Pressure 1008.0

Morning. Hopefully we all do well tonight.

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Dry here in Frome. Temp really dropping , wind picked up, very very cold feel.  

 

Over night rain almosted evaporated off the ground ground in the wind. 

If it snows heavy later then it could settles at ground temps fall right down too. 

Not really sure of our area here is due for snow as ot looks more Devon Cornwall way that most likely for persistent heavy disruptive snow. 

I expect we will see a few flurries for Frome Warminster Trowbridge Westbury areas .

 

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2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Dry here in Frome. Temp really dropping , wind picked up, very very cold feel.  

 

Over night rain almosted evaporated off the ground ground in the wind. 

If it snows heavy later then it could settles at ground temps fall right down too. 

Not really sure of our area here is due for snow as ot looks more Devon Cornwall way that most likely for persistent heavy disruptive snow. 

I expect we will see a few flurries for Frome Warminster Trowbridge Westbury areas .

 

Seems to be moving west on forecasts :cc_confused:

Temperature in free fall still - 0.5c now. 

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The overnight HIRLAM really shows most of our area getting a lot of snow tomorrow. Not so much for us up in the NE but certainly for the West Country. I notice that it's also now showing a new disturbance zipping across later on Sunday now as well....

tempresult_hiw0.gif

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