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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
    38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

    image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

    No wonder people get confused.

    Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

    I bet the BBC forecasters must hate this set up with warnings issued by the MET and the forecast issued by METEO.  It just makes them look stupid when their graphics don't match.  I hope the Beeb are reviewing the accuracy of the new forecasts.

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    And it's 'eyes down' for the full house......Tonight's bingo card!  

    BINGO!    Full House.....  ;-)   Oh my goodness, my giddy aunt What is this, spring with a new slant? I said I didn't want you, go away snow But I'm here again, eyes all aglow

    To help pass the time, lets play a game....Netweather South West Thread Bingo.....no prizes for the winner apart from the accolade of being a bit of a smarty pants

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM 12Z also has Devon/Cornwall in the sweet spot.

    Warnings may well go further west tomorrow if this keeps up!

    Hundreds of miles west of HIRLAM for the first half of tomorrow night... crazy uncertainty.

    I was thinking it seemed a bit unrealistically fast to move the disturbance west prior to development but this now makes it two runs on the trot doing so and with the Met Office supporting it (albeit with uncertainty stressed) so I am starting to wonder if tomorrow morning might end up being the best of it here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    1 hour ago, khodds said:

    Ok.. Saturday night could be interesting.. I’m at Shepton prison until 3am again... ? 

    Give me a shout if you get stuck.. mother lives on garston street next to prison. :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    Exciting times again for all in the south west and one that’s beginning to look very interesting for us cornish folk. I feel The Amber warning will be extended tomorrow morning to us down here in The duchy. Best of luck and enjoy the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    @Singularity - yes that front tomorrow morning could be interesting! How many times have we seen a front that's supposed to fizzle out actually pep up and persist through the day??

    Good point there - if the cloud breaks up a bit and a little surface heating wherever snow hasn't managed to settle much, that could spice things up a bit.

    Shame we can't look to the sea breeze for convergence here; we'd need Channel SSTs of 0*C or less to set that up. That'd require a winter to remember in the first place :laugh:.

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    Looks like this weekend is going to be even more of a radar watch than the last snowy episode!

    I'm just hoping we get a nice dumping of snow overnight Sat/Sun so that we can take the grandkids sledging in the morning before it all melts, although I think in our regions it may be cloudy most of the day, so limited sun related snowmelt hopefully.

    Will def be glued to the radar Saturday night to see where this little disturbance looks like its heading. Landfall a little further east and then pushing a tad north before it heads west will see all of us in the snow belt!

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    2 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    Looks like this weekend is going to be even more of a radar watch than the last snowy episode!

    I'm just hoping we get a nice dumping of snow overnight Sat/Sun so that we can take the grandkids sledging in the morning before it all melts, although I think in our regions it may be cloudy most of the day, so limited sun related snowmelt hopefully.

    Will def be glued to the radar Saturday night to see where this little disturbance looks like its heading. Landfall a little further east and then pushing a tad north before it heads west will see all of us in the snow belt!

    A bit further west and most of us will miss out though :help:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.69349a53211440cfe29bb21b40b57bc6.png

    Latest Meto precip forecast for Sunday night backing HIRLAM it seems.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    22 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Hundreds of miles west of HIRLAM for the first half of tomorrow night... crazy uncertainty.

    I was thinking it seemed a bit unrealistically fast to move the disturbance west prior to development but this now makes it two runs on the trot doing so and with the Met Office supporting it (albeit with uncertainty stressed) so I am starting to wonder if tomorrow morning might end up being the best of it here.

    Who knows!! GFS is similar in developing the feature further east. I have a suspicion the HIRLAM will be wrong this time, though. ARGEPE/ECM combination seems quite convincing?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.69349a53211440cfe29bb21b40b57bc6.png

    Latest Meto precip forecast for Sunday night backing HIRLAM it seems.
     

    that would be a great one! tbf though, i'm not expecting half as much as last time where we got 16cm level and 150cm drifts! i'd be happy with 4+cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    Just now, Leon1 said:

    that would be a great one! tbf though, i'm not expecting half as much as last time where we got 16cm level and 150cm drifts! i'd be happy with 4+cm

    Yup I feel there is still a risk I may be a bit too far east for the heavy stuff but if the HIRLAM comes off along with the more intense bursts forecast tomorrow by the GFS I will be more then happy.

    But i'll just be glad to see people get their wish for snow :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    A bit further west and most of us will miss out though :help:

    That's why I'm hoping it makes landfall further east ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

    image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

    No wonder people get confused.

    Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

    A case of model limitations, obviously the model that creates the graphics is not necessarily seeing the snowfall at this range hence the graphics (we are seeing divergence between the high res models in our Internet world as well)

    I did like how she skipped the nighttime graphics with the warning graphic though........highlighted the risk vs the graphics.

    it was much easier when they had magnetic symbols....;) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    ECM also showing that this might not be our last gasp for the winter/spring.

    ECH1-216.GIF?16-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    27 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    Give me a shout if you get stuck.. mother lives on garston street next to prison. :hi:

    That’s really kind of you - thank you very much ?. I’ll definitely bare that in mind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    TV forecasts just now on ITV and BeebNews24 looked v underwhelming re snow for here (imby) this weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    TV forecasts just now on ITV and BeebNews24 looked v underwhelming re snow for here (imby) this weekend.

    What did Ian's Points West forecast look like?  Missed it, just got in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    TV forecasts just now on ITV and BeebNews24 looked v underwhelming re snow for here (imby) this weekend.

    Luckily for you then the forecasts dont actually dictate the weather on the ground.... :crazy:

    Think we should have better idea by morning one way or other.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    33 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    Oh can we get this over with PLEASE?

    Time to leave until Monday, methinks before the board floods...

    What’s the issue? Yellow warnings and Amber warnings cover our entire region, pretty standard that most want to discuss it...... 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

    Was a lovely dry sunny day today, 11c mostly with a high of 12.1c through midday. Temp has dropped fast last few hours and is now 8.1c.
    Wind has dropped to 1-2mph and is now Easterly after being ESE during the rest of the day, 1001.8 hPa.
    Not looking like the temps are going to drop to near zero utill tomorrow afternoon, so temp and dewpoint watching time will be then.
    Dewpoint is currently 6.9c

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

    Ian mentioned the system forecast to bring the snow tomorrow night/Sunday doesn’t exist yet hence the Met having to rely on the models and as we have seen from the posts above are showing different solutions regards the amount of snow and where. Expect corrections to that Amber warning between now and Sunday. I don’t think this is a done deal yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    6 minutes ago, AWD said:

    What did Ian's Points West forecast look like?  Missed it, just got in.

    Didnt see Ian's. I was referring to National ITV and News24Beeb.

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