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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards


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And it's 'eyes down' for the full house......Tonight's bingo card!  

BINGO!    Full House.....  ;-)   Oh my goodness, my giddy aunt What is this, spring with a new slant? I said I didn't want you, go away snow But I'm here again, eyes all aglow

To help pass the time, lets play a game....Netweather South West Thread Bingo.....no prizes for the winner apart from the accolade of being a bit of a smarty pants

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Latest 12z Arpege model shows a respectable "spring" covering of snow across many parts of our region by the end of the weekend;

snowdepth_054.thumb.jpg.b862ac4c41bec0065ebc06ecc71f1491.jpg

 

How much of this would actually survive the stronger sun etc remains to be seen.

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Just now, AWD said:

Latest 12z Arpege model shows a respectable "spring" covering of snow across many parts of our region by the end of the weekend;

snowdepth_084.thumb.jpg.72c467f6a6cd57e8b9330a3a20bb4936.jpg

How much of this would actually survive the stronger sun etc remains to be seen.

well, if we take this as gospel, less than 1cm down here will disappear in microseconds...

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Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

No wonder people get confused.

Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

No wonder people get confused.

Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

LOL - It makes you think sometimes where the BBC get their information from....

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39 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Bought just one carton of long life milk. You know what happens to the supermarkets when some snow is in the offing. 

giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

 

   Yep, I now have milk and bread. And gin. I’m sorted.

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21 minutes ago, Gary R Betreen said:

I am in Cricklade/Cirencester on Sat/Sun/Mon.  Coming from Manchester.   What does anyone think about Sunday in Cricklade, heavy snow?

@Jayfromcardiff  Will it snow in Cricklade? :D

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29 minutes ago, Gary R Betreen said:

I am in Cricklade/Cirencester on Sat/Sun/Mon.  Coming from Manchester.   What does anyone think about Sunday in Cricklade, heavy snow?

I'd go for snow definitely,  heavy maybe. Too early to call it accurately. 

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Latest 12z EURO4 suggests elevation will play a part, keeping any accumulative snowfall to higher parts of the region such as Exmoor, Dartmoor & the Mendips;

18031812_1612.thumb.gif.0015414b7ba2e08d5c8cf6d65c7e69eb.gif

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z EURO4 suggests elevation will play a part, keeping any accumulative snowfall to higher parts of the region such as Exmoor, Dartmoor & the Mendips;

18031812_1612.thumb.gif.0015414b7ba2e08d5c8cf6d65c7e69eb.gif

3 dollops on the Cotswold Hills. That's our lot. 

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24 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z Hirlam goes quite wild with snow accumulations across the UK by midday Sunday;

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.8e820763ecd9e3d4457089385acabf64.jpg

Hmm, Irish coast south of Dublin looking like it'll get another pasting.  Do hope this pub in Sallins dug itself out and stocked up on the dark stuff for St Patricks day......

Sallins Friday morning (Picture: James Lawless)

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nmm_uk1-42-18-0.png?16-17 nmm_uk1-42-20-0.png?16-17

The highest resolution variant of WRF-NMM paints a very interesting picture for tomorrow morning; we wake up to dreary old rain showers but by mid-morning there should be a sharp transition to snow taking place as the low-dew point air kicks in, at which point those wanting a covering will be urging the showers to keep their intensity up as long as they can in the face of the drier continental feed.

The rest of the day looks to be either light showers or longer spells of very light snow;

nmm_uk1-42-26-0.png?16-17

So I see the mid-morning period as the best chance to get a covering in place for the day. It won't be easy though given the lack of recent freezing - I expect it will take a bit of luck to see the snow rate overcome the melt rate before the heavier showers clear away.

Overnight into Sunday, the more persistent and heavier area of snow has been trending further west as the disturbance doesn't edge north as soon as was looking to be the case.

nmm_uk1-42-36-0.png?16-18

The Met Office seem to be working on the assumption that either this trend will continue with the likes of WRF-NMM, or that the ECM 00z will be on the money with its surprisingly far to the west solution.

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2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I giveth the Hirlam

hirlam-45-48-0.png?16-17

15-20 cm for Princetown!

I'll snap your hand off for 7-9 cm thanks on March 18th :drunk:

according to that map, I've got yellow snow again....lol

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