South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

This is why I do not use GFS CAPE charts. Bristol is circa  1700 j/kg on that map.. a look at the extended skew-t shows it around 500 j/kg

Maybe I should've been more clear, the CAPE chart I posted was from the Netweather NMM model, maybe it's time I use the same caution with that model as with the GFS. Are skew-t's really much more accurate over forecast models and if so how do we know?

EDIT: Ironically this is the GFS 12z run... Which is the same as the skew-t.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

You're certainly correct about the cooling sea effect, we picked up 27.4C today largely due to the lack of the cooling sea breeze, as was yesterday..

Certainly was much cooler when the sea breeze picked up. As I posted earlier I was surprised how much of a difference there was here with the breeze compared to only a few miles inland. 

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Are skew-t's really much more accurate over forecast models and if so how do we know?

Skew-t's build up a profile of the atmosphere through all of the layers. Granted, extended skew-t is only a forecast, but it is far more accurate than hi-res/GFS charts. You can view a skew-t on the morning of an event and it will give you an exact sounding of the atmosphere - almost realtime observations.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Mapantz

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Skew-t's build up a profile of the atmosphere through all of the layers. Granted, extended skew-t is only a forecast, but it is far more accurate than hi-res/GFS charts. You can view a skew-t on the morning of an event and it will give you an exact sounding of the atmosphere - realtime observations.

Sounds reasonable, I've never truly understood how Skew-T data was collected and its accuracy which is why I've never really used it. Looks good though!

[MP-R]

31 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looks like that's the case, I can't see many showers forming before late afternoon.

The fax charts show the trough moving west to east at the spine of the country at midnight into Sunday.

Majority of showers should form before that, many being initiated about 6pm ish... Before lasting well into the evening/night.

Major risk seems north of M4 anyway according to NMM.

Perfect sort of day! Love reading your convective forecasts by the way. Very nicely put together.

[Ben Sainsbury]

25 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Perfect sort of day! Love reading your convective forecasts by the way. Very nicely put together.

There is nothing better to me as an "amateur meteorologist" receiving these types of comments. Being 18 and looking to study meteorology these comments are what motivate me to learn more, thank you and hopefully we'll have many more of these events over the coming months.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Dorsetbred]

39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Skew-t's build up a profile of the atmosphere through all of the layers. Granted, extended skew-t is only a forecast, but it is far more accurate than hi-res/GFS charts. You can view a skew-t on the morning of an event and it will give you an exact sounding of the atmosphere - almost realtime observations.

Aren't the realtime reports limited to specific towns / airports?

[EllyTech]

24C top temp today. Could have fooled me. Felt like 27C in the Sun. Wall to wall Sunshine. 

[Evening thunder]

23.6C today at 13:23 before the sea breeze arrived and briefly dropped it below 20C, however it was 20-22C for much of the afternoon.
That's just 0.2C short of my station record in April 2011. I wonder how high it would have got without the coastal influences.

This day 1 month ago I woke to over 15cm of snow!

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Evening thunder

[Frosty hollows]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

You didn't promise them a snowman did you, FH?

They're only 2 weeks late for that ?

Can't be many times of the year you land in London with the same ground temperature you left in Dubai!

[Frosty hollows]

5 hours ago, Mapantz said:

They'll arrive in jackets and complain that it's chilly.

It maxed out at 26.5°C - took me by surprise!

Funnily enough they sent me a WhatsApp from Dubai airport and they're wearing sleeves ?

[Mapantz]

It is still 17.7°C here. Rarely hold that temperature in Summer at this time.

[offerman]

Well the last of the snow has finally melted here

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After I took it out of the freezer :-) 

[Frosty hollows]

Still 23C here. Unusual enough in the height of summer. Gonna be a sticky night ?

[Leon1]

1 month ago:   

     

 

Today:

Weird what a month can do!  

Edited April 19, 2018 by Leon1

[CheesepuffScott]

37 minutes ago, offerman said:

Well the last of the snow has finally melted here

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After I took it out of the freezer :-) 

A piece I took as a souvenir and out in the freezer is going strong

[Lyn-M]

Max was 25.4°C here today, the highest April temperature since 2011 when four consecutive days of 23°C+ were followed by 26°C on the 23rd.  Friend returned from a week in Gran Canaria today and said that it was warmer here than there, but they had had similar temperatures for a week, not just two days!

[CheesepuffScott]

13 minutes ago, Lyn-M said:

Max was 25.4°C here today, the highest April temperature since 2011 when four consecutive days of 23°C+ were followed by 26°C on the 23rd.  Friend returned from a week in Gran Canaria today and said that it was warmer here than there, but they had had similar temperatures for a week, not just two days!

A friend who went to Fuerteventura said it was cloudy and just 16C for 3 days! Shocking.

[EllyTech]

Starting my day with 9C and mist. Cooler than yesterday but when the mist burns off, it will be a hot one. 

[MP-R]

13 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

There is nothing better to me as an "amateur meteorologist" receiving these types of comments. Being 18 and looking to study meteorology these comments are what motivate me to learn more, thank you and hopefully we'll have many more of these events over the coming months.

Happy to be of assistance hehe. Keep it up! Hopefully plenty more good setups this season.

Foggy and cool this morning.

[Ben Sainsbury]

53 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Happy to be of assistance hehe. Keep it up! Hopefully plenty more good setups this season.

Foggy and cool this morning.

Very dull start, looks like the mist is taking much longer to clear, a little concerned as looks like winds coming off the Bristol Channel towards the Bristol Area.

[Bob G]

Maxed out at 31.6 IMBY yesterday - I think my screen would benefit from a fresh coat of paint, it is looking decidedly grey

[Uncle Gargy]

Such a miserable morning. Thick fog and only 12c. Shows no signs of thinning before noon.

[jtay]

The Sun has broken through, so we've got another cracking day lined up.

@jy- It looks your Red Kite has moved in round here now. Took these last night. It roosted in the trees about 100 yards away from the back garden and it was back swooping around at 7ish this morning.

The OH says that she's been telling me it's been here for a week, or so and that I really should listen. At least I think that's what she said.

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Very dull start, looks like the mist is taking much longer to clear, a little concerned as looks like winds coming off the Bristol Channel towards the Bristol Area.

Thank you cold SSTs! Rather disappointing isn't it - oh well, got plenty of university work to be getting on with.