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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards


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And it's 'eyes down' for the full house......Tonight's bingo card!  

BINGO!    Full House.....  ;-)   Oh my goodness, my giddy aunt What is this, spring with a new slant? I said I didn't want you, go away snow But I'm here again, eyes all aglow

To help pass the time, lets play a game....Netweather South West Thread Bingo.....no prizes for the winner apart from the accolade of being a bit of a smarty pants

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2 hours ago, Nights King said:

 

Yep! That’s what I was on about earlier - my birthday (or day before) 18 years ago. It’s going to happen again... I can feel it in my bones. :yahoo:

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Nice to be getting a slow goodbye to the snow for once, rather than rain washing it away. Still some good coverings round here away from where the sun hit late in the day. Portsmouth city centre must have had a good hit this morning as still a good couple of inches on the train tracks just before dark this evening. 

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3 hours ago, Nights King said:

I dropped my dream off in the mod thread... expect it to get deleted soon :ninja:

One mans dream is another girls nightmare. I'll never forget that day!

 

For non locals to here, the pictures I posted earlier were from in and around this village. And useless but interesting fact....if anyone saw the film last year 'Another woman's son'  it was shot here too.

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3 hours ago, Rich_Clements said:

Anyone know what summer 2000 was like I can't remember ?

Wet. Very wet at times.

That was the year I started at the swanky hotel I was on about earlier, there had been a new bit completed and we had to landscape the surrounding grounds for opening night. It was a steep bank and we were laying turf in torrential rain, normally you tamp it down with the back of a rake to make sure there are no air pockets underneath. We had to have a line of folks not just tamping it down but holding onto the row of turf whilst we laid the next row in order to stop the whole lot sliding down the hill. Nightmare!

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54 minutes ago, Eat Sleep Models Repeat said:

WTF. That ECM. Steve Murr sausage?? Beast from the East. Easter bunny!... 

 

Don't you know about the Steve Murr sausage? It's a real term bud...........;-)

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5 hours ago, Rich_Clements said:

Anyone know what summer 2000 was like I can't remember ?

Yes, I remember that year as my youngest was 7 months old and my eldest' first Easter at primary school . 

It was bitterly cold absolutely bitter and the summer if I remember rightly wasn't up to standard  unlike  the year before which was humid and thundery. But plenty of sunshine in between . 

1998 had a snowy Easter-  my 3rd baby was born then and that summer was downright miserable . Cool and wet .

Funny how you remember things isn't it . 

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44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some fresh snowflakes on the road here too! Not a covering but where on earth did that come from?

Off the front end of the NNE flow that has developed and likely to bring rain later. (Actually I know you know that and it was a rhetorical question, but it's early!)

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Morning all, after an overnight low of  -1.3°C the sun is now powering up and the temperature is rising nicely already a warming 1.6°C. Like others a brief snow shower left a light dusting which has now all but disappeared.

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APRIL 2000

You really must stop distracting me as I've got a huge back log in my work :D I've noted all the posts re: the 4th April 2000 snowfall and the very wet year that followed. Here are a few charts for that day:

  archives-2000-4-4-0-0.png  archives-2000-4-4-0-5.png  archives-2000-4-4-0-1.png  archivesuk-2000-4-4-0-5.png  archivesuk-2017-4-4-0-7.png

If you go to these reanalysis sites you can find so much more. You can check every day and then run through the charts which include northern hemisphere and other views. Here are the links

NCEP Archives - Reanalysis of Daily Charts from 1871 to Date:       http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?month=4&day=1&year=2000&map=0&hour=0&mode=2&type=ncep

ECM Archives -  Reanalysis of Daily Charts from 1979 to 2017:   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=1&month=4&day=4&year=2000&map=5&type=era&region=uk

Here are some Met O reports:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000recordrain.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000wintry.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000wet.html

The Met O library contains a vast amount of archive data. I often quote from the monthly weather reports. Unfortunately there is a 7 year gap (including 2000) when the old style reports ceased until the new system started.   Here are the links:

Jan 1884 to Dec 1993 - monthly:    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report

Jan 1994 to Dec 2000 - monthly:     There is a gap in the Met Office records - they stopped the old reports and didn't replace them until  2001

Jan 2001 to date - monthly:            https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2001

Better still we have the "Daily Weather Reports" for the whole period from as far back as 1860 without gaps. These take a little longer to find. They're in their digital archive library and you need to search, refine details and wait for pdf files to load up. Here's the link to all the 2000 charts - stored for each month:   https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/archive/sdb%3AdeliverableUnit|2e7a0c97-8ed9-4b8d-95b3-22d0d4b2d2ed/ 

....and the link to April 2000: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile|e303e6c1-6800-494c-b85d-86e000051a2f/   which will download to this:   file:///C:/Users/David/Downloads/DWS_2000_04.pdf

The month has 124 pages of daily data and 4 pages for each day. Here are those 4 pages snipped:

   5ab0c317c5fb8_4.4_00a.thumb.PNG.a31eecd5344627a3325b4fb4c6246f49.PNG         5ab0c3217ca76_4.4_00b.thumb.PNG.dba29631d09b0870a3305fe6619f2fe5.PNG       5ab0c334f280f_4.4_00x1.thumb.PNG.f6ca668dda8844d3f80676fff34f8e8d.PNG       5ab0c32a20652_4.4_00x.thumb.PNG.8ad8f5690cdd3190608f83d5c4e9d0c5.PNG

and close ups of a couple of sections:

   5ab0c2f70e16b_4.4_00z.thumb.PNG.9e7936255e8ad7e96c94b6c270640f8a.PNG         5ab0c33d1b671_4.4_00y.thumb.PNG.90175eb1712bcdc53eb1952c6b60ef86.PNG

Finally. I feel that I should slightly disagree with those who are likening the weather that we might see this Easter - quite probably with cold winds from a northerly quarter with some wintry showers around or perhaps some more widespread snow (but "probably" less cold and less snowy than "Beast 1" or "Beast 2") to 2000.  I'll be doing a MOD report on this in a week or so. That's where the analogue ends. The broader patterns and set ups were very different in 2000 to 2018. A mostly mild and very dry March in 2000, gave way to that Arctic outbreak followed by very wet conditions during April and further very wet weather in spring and summer 2000.  Once we get over the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming and the final warming which is likely to produce these further cold spells into early April, there is "likely" to be some significant improvements later in April and through the rest of spring and early summer.  The La Nina is weakening to ENSO neutral during the next few weeks. This period is "usually" associated with very weak jet streams. In spring this is likely to produce some dry and settled weather and probably some pleasantly warm conditions. Once we get over the repeating cold patterns with some wet weather in between, we are likely to see a rapid change and warm up. I would be very surprised to see a wet and cool early summer. Nothing is certain but the broad indications are there.

I provided all the links so that anyone who is interested in spending hours or days going through this vast amount of data and archive records and reports can do so. I use it regularly but I must have a break now for a few days to catch up with work.  David :)  

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

APRIL 2000

You really must stop distracting me as I've got a huge back log in my work :D I've noted all the posts re: the 4th April 2000 snowfall and the very .......

What an interesting read. Thanks David.

Now stop distracting me with fascinating posts so I can also get some work done ?

WW

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Thank you David for all your hard work and effort , it is very much appreciated .very  well set out,  very thoughtful and easy to understand for those of us who can't quite get our heads around things .( me really ! ) .

i hope that you catch up with your work very soon .

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I am awaiting confirmation from the Guiness Book Of Records that a statement elsewhere has estimated that Winter 18/19 is over,reasoning seems to be low sunspots,medium Leopards spots,but record breaking Teenage Spots being behind this ground breaking statement.You wont believe me im sure,but ive seen the statement with my own eyes,even our own highly respected mad thread are struggling to come to terms with......the earliest Winter is over prediction in weather forum history.

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3 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Well I certainly wasn't expecting any more snow this week but there is a fresh dusting on all surfaces!!!!

Not sure when it came down (#crucial - is today another day of snow?). Yes - I did enjoy seeing that.

Some good drifts in the same places as two weeks ago on the way to Bath. I saw some forming out on a walk yesterday morning, so if it had stayed colder longer could have been good, Cannot complain though - three weeks ago, spring was round the corner, little settled snow imby, another winter done and then...

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I just love your posts David. So informative. Fantastic explanations of where we are, how we got there and where we are headed. I love to delve into the MAD thread but come away more confused than when I went in, so your clear input is very much appreciated 

I looked forward to your updates each day whilst the beasts were at our door. Come back soon.

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1 hour ago, warmintim said:

Not sure when it came down (#crucial - is today another day of snow?). Yes - I did enjoy seeing that.

Reviewing the Net Weather radar a broken line of showers moved South across us between 05.00-05.30 .

I'm counting it as another day of snow lol.

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Stunning drive into Kingsbridge this morning, beautiful clear morning with views of the snow-covered fields all the way to Dartmoor in the distance! Still some drifting on the sides of the road but nothing terrible here.

What's weird this morning is our neighbour's back garden still has thick snow, but if you look at the flats over the road you can see a clear heat haze over the roof. Only a matter of time now!

Anyway, Beast 2 was definitely the most enjoyable of the two for me personally. We didn't have to endure the extreme cold of Beast 1 but got plenty of snow and a lovely day off yesterday to enjoy the sun as the schools were all shut.

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12 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Reviewing the Net Weather radar a broken line of showers moved South across us between 05.00-05.30 .

I'm counting it as another day of snow lol.

It passed over here at 5:30ish delivering, from what I could make out, nothing.

However, when I walked 2k South to Downton a bit later, there were flakes on the path in the water meadows. Not many, but they were there.

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