South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[jy]

Matt my point beyond tonights nonsense is something is not quite right,Countryfile on Sunday runs to a usual pattern,Mon and Tuesday they can do,Weds they say uncertainty creeping in,Thursday and Friday,look at BBC updates,as for South Today,my cat Big Ted,is more accurate.

[matt111]

14 minutes ago, jy said:

Matt my point beyond tonights nonsense is something is not quite right,Countryfile on Sunday runs to a usual pattern,Mon and Tuesday they can do,Weds they say uncertainty creeping in,Thursday and Friday,look at BBC updates,as for South Today,my cat Big Ted,is more accurate.

Yes their week ahead forecast isn't great.

Also I don't see the point in the outlook going out so far, and that applies to all the BBC regions. The old one only went out a few days which was far more likely to be accurate than the current one. 

[wiltshire weather]

So, even now there's still uncertainty regarding this week (from Weds onwards).

With the way it's trending, I'm still not going to put my hat, scarf and gloves away just yet!

[matt111]

6 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

So, even now there's still uncertainty regarding this week (from Weds onwards).

With the way it's trending, I'm still not going to put my hat, scarf and gloves away just yet!

Yes the potential for Wednesday seems to have come out of nowhere. 

[Leon1]

It's coming back! A bit. I had a feeling they would come back either late Sunday or early Monday so I wasn't too far off!

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin All, a damp start after overnight rainfall. Overcast and a light breeze in from the SW, currently 8.6C.

[Zephyr]

EURO4 still toying with the snow idea down to +36

 

[Leon1]

Shame it's raining before 

[wiltshire weather]

So the chopping and changing of the models continues today with varying solutions over the next few days.

Still, a likelihood of some wintriness tomorrow, probably sleet and wet snow for many as shown on the NW short range model:

I note though that our favourite short ranger of late, the HIRLAM doesn't show any snow at all for our region.

 

As for the Easter weekend, with low pressure either over the SW or nearby, Friday/Saturday is likely to be wet, breezy and pretty miserable. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wintriness as temps are going to be below average.

Sunday looks like we might be in between two LP systems so maybe the dryer day, Monday sees another LP moving in with more wet weather, could be some more wintriness as temperatures have dropped away Sunday night.

As for the following week, seems as though the models are sniffing out a colder pattern again with a northerly setting up for a few days. The GFS 6z has flipped to this from a milder solution and the overnight ECM hinted at this I think. Cold enough for some more widespread snow it seems as well:

 

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

So the chopping and changing of the models continues today with varying solutions over the next few days.

Still, a likelihood of some wintriness tomorrow, probably sleet and wet snow for many as shown on the NW short range model:

I note though that our favourite short ranger of late, the HIRLAM doesn't show any snow at all for our region.

 

As for the Easter weekend, with low pressure either over the SW or nearby, Friday/Saturday is likely to be wet, breezy and pretty miserable. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wintriness as temps are going to be below average.

Sunday looks like we might be in between two LP systems so maybe the dryer day, Monday sees another LP moving in with more wet weather, could be some more wintriness as temperatures have dropped away Sunday night.

As for the following week, seems as though the models are sniffing out a colder pattern again with a northerly setting up for a few days. The GFS 6z has flipped to this from a milder solution and the overnight ECM hinted at this I think. Cold enough for some more widespread snow it seems as well:

 

I thought hirlam was all for it yesterdays runs? 

See what happens on the 12z 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Nights King

[wiltshire weather]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I thought hirlam was all for it yesterdays runs? 

See what happens on the 12z 

Certainly was, but dropped it on the 0z run, whos to say it wont bring it back again !

[Nights King]

Just now, wiltshire weather said:

Certainly was, but dropped it on the 0z run, whos to say it wont bring it back again !

Be interesting to see if anything id like it to move in slightly earlier in day. I leave for work at 7.30 so lose elevation from then and id love to see some big heavy wet snow flakes as ive only seen the fine dry variety so far this year 

[Frosty hollows]

On 26/03/2018 at 08:44, jy said:

Reports suggest Red Kites only found in the Chilterns in Southern England,so a day out to see these birds is in order.

We have them here. Had a pair used to land on the school field

[Nights King]

9 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

We have them here. Had a pair used to land on the school field

We have them in the mendip hills also. 

[matt111]

Brightening up a bit now after a dull wet start earlier. First signs of the sun breaking through. Milder than yesterday at 12.2°C. 

[karlos1983]

I’m on a 1000ft hill in west wales, might bode well ?

[Andy Bown]

I've managed to arrange childcare so I can deliver my fortnightly papers on a bright, breezy afternoon rather than in tomorrow mornings vile conditions!

[Mapantz]

Mainly cloudy, some bright & sunny spells, though. Also the warmest day of the year.. 13.8°C 

[jethro]

Afternoon, after a damp and dreary start here it turned into a lovely spring day again, warm, sunny and only a slight breeze. Keeping fingers crossed that winter has finally done for us but the chart posted above has a sense of de ja vue about it; 4th April, again, same date in 2000 brought a foot of snow to the hills here.

[matt111]

I remember 4tht April well as it’s my mums birthday. I think it was 2013 we went out for a meal for he birthday and it snowed the whole day leading up to it but didn’t settle at all. 

[Nights King]

50 minutes ago, jethro said:

Afternoon, after a damp and dreary start here it turned into a lovely spring day again, warm, sunny and only a slight breeze. Keeping fingers crossed that winter has finally done for us but the chart posted above has a sense of de ja vue about it; 4th April, again, same date in 2000 brought a foot of snow to the hills here.

We can but dream jeth at least this time it would be a pleasant memory for you :-p 

[Mapantz]

I've noticed that the few coldies still hanging on are becoming rather petty towards fellow members that post some charts showing milder air for parts of  the UK. It really is pathetic! I can't wait for them to all sod off when temperatures do show signs of increasing properly.

[Leon1]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've noticed that the few coldies still hanging on are becoming rather petty towards fellow members that post some charts showing milder air for parts of  the UK. It really is pathetic! I can't wait for them to all sod off when temperatures do show signs of increasing properly.

wooah, I still want cold but I would never be like that.

[EllyTech]

Temp 10C  Humidity 66%  Dewpoint 3C

A dull, damp day. Currently thin stratus at dusk.

Edited March 27, 2018 by EllyTech

[Mike Poole]

A slow start to Spring this year, for sure.  But here in the SW and Central England we've probably had more than we could have expected in terms of great snowy cold weather.  And from now on with little chance of snow, about time for a warm up hopefully.  As I said in the MOD thread, there's still uncertainty at quite short timescales, compare ECM at T96:

With ARPEGE at same time:

First heading to mild/warm, latter cold.  The issue is how much of a ridge builds between those two lows.  Not resolved yet, but probably will be tomorrow.  But even if the warmer solution wins out (I expect it to) the weather will hardly be pleasant with all the rain.  Still, baby steps to summer...