South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin All, currently 3.9°C and overcast.Low overnight was 2.4°C clearly held up due to the cloud.Clear view out over the channel this morning no mist as we have a slight breeze in place, from the SW.

[karlos1983]

9 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Computer says no you must have viewed a different pub run to me! It shows several potential snow events in SW England and Southern & Central England. Great stuff. 

Whilst they might look good at face value, I’d say they were a bit to marginal. But as I said yesterday morning, wouldn’t surprise me if the models drop the idea or depth of cold before picking it back up again. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by karlos1983

[Frosty hollows]

Overnight low of 5c in the capital of bloomin Narnia.  So that's it! I declare spring open! Especially as the merchant of death to all weather (aka express) claims we're going to freeze over at Easter

[jy]

Some obvious glee in various areas about Easter snow ect,fair enough its the weather,but its starting to impact on a wider scale,Mates of mine who run outdoor kiosks,small garden centres ect are starting to cringe at the thought of a cold rain or snow related Easter,money for stock being paid out,no punters to fill the till,the other thing now is the rise numerically of folk that are self employed,this covers masses of trades...no work...no money,not sure what style of weather will keep everyone happy,but lets hope nature finds a way.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I NEED HEAT!!!! It'LL BE BLINKING WINTER AGAIN BEFORE WE KNOW IT!

[Deep Channel low]

00hrs 22.3.18 ECM snow depth for Good Friday 1pm, everybody pray and cross everything,

[Georgie]

I'm lurking in here waiting for whispers of Snow I'm off till  after Easter ? so will be lurking a lot. Georgie

[jtay]

Got to zoom in to see any snow round here now...

[karlos1983]

26 minutes ago, Deep Channel low said:

00hrs 22.3.18 ECM snow depth for Good Friday 1pm, everybody pray and cross everything,

Holy Crap!!   name a limb, you can have it if that comes off!!! 

[Dorsetbred]

56 minutes ago, Deep Channel low said:

00hrs 22.3.18 ECM snow depth for Good Friday 1pm, everybody pray and cross everything,

Now watch the number of people on here SOAR! I think it would take a miracle to dump that much snow over Dorset..

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Now you see ... Ordinarily I would say get lost I ain't believing it til it falls out the sky ... But i've been made a permanant believer again. I'm on the polar express first! :-D

[karlos1983]

33 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Now watch the number of people on here SOAR! I think it would take a miracle to dump that much snow over Dorset..

Miracle #3 of March? So far in March I’ve had 31cm’s of snow. 17cm (1st) + 9cm (17/18th) + 5cm (18/19th) 

Do you not like a busy thread, makes it much more enjoyable.  Hopefully encourages more people to post in the quieter months. 

[festivalking]

We're still about just avoiding the moaning mini posts that' all ?

I would call today' weather as beige.  Cloudy not breezy not cold not overly mild just a bit boring. So cold weather stormy weather plume type weather I'll have it all rather than today's borefest 

Mmm that's an ironic post if ever there was one

Edited March 22, 2018 by festivalking

[jtay]

57 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Now watch the number of people on here SOAR! I think it would take a miracle to dump that much snow over Dorset..

It does say 3.2, not 32.

~3.2in is pretty standard, these days.

[Frosty hollows]

22 minutes ago, festivalking said:

We're still about just avoiding the moaning mini posts that' all ?

I would call today' weather as beige.  Cloudy not breezy not cold not overly mild just a bit boring. So cold weather stormy weather plume type weather I'll have it all rather than today's borefest 

Mmm that's an ironic post if ever there was one

It's like spring here and TK Maxx opened up the road.  Today isn't beige. 

[Frosty hollows]

Do you know what I reckon? If the Christmas emojis disappeared, winter might go with it .Off you trot. Time for some bbq and ?? emojis ???

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Do you know what I reckon? If the Christmas emojis disappeared, winter might go with it .Off you trot. Time for some bbq and ?? emojis ???

Na 

[wiltshire weather]

There are so many options on the table for Easter at the moment I'm just going to refrain from posting any more snapshots of model runs until some agreement is reached!

At least I'll try to stop myself anyway... 

Edited March 22, 2018 by wiltshire weather

[offerman]

NOTE THE PART ABOUT THE GULF STREAM: 

World sees rapid upsurge in extreme weather: report

Paris (AFP) - A world addled by climate change has seen a four-fold increase in major flooding events since 1980, and a doubling of significant storms, droughts and heat waves, Europe's national science academies jointly reported Wednesday.

In Europe, where precise data reaches back decades, the number of severe floods has jumped five fold since 1995, according to the report, which updates a 2013 assessment.

"There has been, and continues to be, a significant increase in the frequency of extreme weather events," said Michael Norton, environmental programme director for the European Academies' Science Advisory Council.

"They underline the importance of avoiding greenhouse gases, which are fundamentally responsible for driving these changes," he told AFP.

For impacts that cannot be avoided, he added, "this makes climate proofing all the more urgent."

In Europe, efforts to shore up defences against river flooding have proven effective: despite an increase in frequency of such events, economic loses on the continent have remained static.

"Rather than just coping with disasters after they strike, we need to shift to proactive management of all drivers of risks," commented Munich Climate Insurance Initiative director Soenke Kreft, who did not contribute to the report.

In the United States, however, the damage wrought by storms doubled, on average, from $10 billion in 1980 to $20 billion in 2015, adjusted for inflation, according to the report, based in part on data from insurance giant Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE.

The update also assessed new findings on possible changes in the Gulf Stream, powerful ocean currents running between the Arctic region and the Caribbean that warm the air in northwestern Europe and the US eastern seaboard.

Climate 'hotspots'

The weakening of the Gulf Stream "is now a credible hypothesis," said Norton.

"Some of the underlying drivers of extreme weather which were speculative four years ago are looking less speculative." 

The prospect of the Gulf Stream -- also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) -- slowing, or even shutting down entirely, "must be taken as a serious possibility," he added.

Scientists have estimated that winters in Britain and much of western Europe would be several degrees Celsius colder under such a scenario.

The study also examined recent disruptions of the polar Jet Stream, a band of west-to-east winds that circulate at bullet-train speed some 10 kilometres above Earth's surface at the upper boundary of the troposphere.

Recent research has linked severe winters in North America and Europe, as well some extreme summer weather, to Jet Stream fluctuations possibly driven by global warming in the Arctic, where temperatures have risen twice as fast as for the planet as a whole. 

"The linkage between climate change and individual weather events -- such as the 'Beast from the East' -- in inherently uncertain," commented Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia.

But the new report "is fully consistent with global trends," he added."For example, there have been roughly ten times more warm record-breaking temperatures than cold one in the last 150 years."

A 2016 study in Climatic Change forecast that, by mid-century, pockets of southern Europe will face at least one severe climate hazard every year of the scale now occurring only once every 100 years.

By 2100, according to these predictions, Europe's entire Mediterranean seaboard will be confronted annually with extreme droughts, coastal floods or heatwaves.

And a few "hotspots" will be hit every year by two or more such formerly once-in-hundred-years hazards, which also 

 

 

[jethro]

Afternoon all, it was a beige day here too, well actually more like dove grey. Wall to wall cloud, chilly and never really getting light. Useful weather for gardening but growth of everything still completely on hold, even the grass isn't growing which says something about the ground temps as it needs an average of 6c or below for grass to stop growing.

[jethro]

6 minutes ago, offerman said:

NOTE THE PART ABOUT THE GULF STREAM: 

World sees rapid upsurge in extreme weather: report

Paris (AFP) - A world addled by climate change has seen a four-fold increase in major flooding events since 1980, and a doubling of significant storms, droughts and heat waves, Europe's national science academies jointly reported Wednesday.

In Europe, where precise data reaches back decades, the number of severe floods has jumped five fold since 1995, according to the report, which updates a 2013 assessment.

"There has been, and continues to be, a significant increase in the frequency of extreme weather events," said Michael Norton, environmental programme director for the European Academies' Science Advisory Council.

"They underline the importance of avoiding greenhouse gases, which are fundamentally responsible for driving these changes," he told AFP.

For impacts that cannot be avoided, he added, "this makes climate proofing all the more urgent."

In Europe, efforts to shore up defences against river flooding have proven effective: despite an increase in frequency of such events, economic loses on the continent have remained static.

"Rather than just coping with disasters after they strike, we need to shift to proactive management of all drivers of risks," commented Munich Climate Insurance Initiative director Soenke Kreft, who did not contribute to the report.

In the United States, however, the damage wrought by storms doubled, on average, from $10 billion in 1980 to $20 billion in 2015, adjusted for inflation, according to the report, based in part on data from insurance giant Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE.

The update also assessed new findings on possible changes in the Gulf Stream, powerful ocean currents running between the Arctic region and the Caribbean that warm the air in northwestern Europe and the US eastern seaboard.

Climate 'hotspots'

The weakening of the Gulf Stream "is now a credible hypothesis," said Norton.

"Some of the underlying drivers of extreme weather which were speculative four years ago are looking less speculative." 

The prospect of the Gulf Stream -- also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) -- slowing, or even shutting down entirely, "must be taken as a serious possibility," he added.

Scientists have estimated that winters in Britain and much of western Europe would be several degrees Celsius colder under such a scenario.

The study also examined recent disruptions of the polar Jet Stream, a band of west-to-east winds that circulate at bullet-train speed some 10 kilometres above Earth's surface at the upper boundary of the troposphere.

Recent research has linked severe winters in North America and Europe, as well some extreme summer weather, to Jet Stream fluctuations possibly driven by global warming in the Arctic, where temperatures have risen twice as fast as for the planet as a whole. 

"The linkage between climate change and individual weather events -- such as the 'Beast from the East' -- in inherently uncertain," commented Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia.

But the new report "is fully consistent with global trends," he added."For example, there have been roughly ten times more warm record-breaking temperatures than cold one in the last 150 years."

A 2016 study in Climatic Change forecast that, by mid-century, pockets of southern Europe will face at least one severe climate hazard every year of the scale now occurring only once every 100 years.

By 2100, according to these predictions, Europe's entire Mediterranean seaboard will be confronted annually with extreme droughts, coastal floods or heatwaves.

And a few "hotspots" will be hit every year by two or more such formerly once-in-hundred-years hazards, which also 

 

 

Not getting into the whole climate change debate thing (wrong place for it) but I would like to add one thing to the above...... The Sun is currently declining towards solar minima, the experts seem to be somewhat perplexed at the way it has been behaving and are predicting a strong likelihood that we may be heading into a deep, prolonged solar minima, the likes of which hasn't been seen since Dickensian times. I'm not suggesting that the planet will cool, nor that a quiet sun will mitigate or even cancel out the climate warming we've experienced, it does however have the potential to impact upon our part of the globe. Past deep minima have resulted in much colder winters here, (also wet summers or conversely very warm, dry summers) after the cold winter of 2010 there was a big study undertaken that showed strong correlation between the cold winter and the declining sun spot numbers, the explanation given was that the declining sun impacted upon UV levels which in turn impacted upon the jet stream and the Hadley cells, promoting a meandering or southerly flow for the jet stream and a higher likelihood of Northern blocking, allowing cold air to flood south in our direction.

So, if the sun goes quiet and stays quiet and the gulf stream is slowing too, I suggest we all should look at the insulation in our homes because we're going to need it ;-)

[Leon1]

why cant we just see some model agreement for once! i suspect it won't really come into place of what easter will be like until sometime late this weekend or early next week.

[wiltshire weather]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

why cant we just see some model agreement for once! i suspect it won't really come into place of what easter will be like until sometime late this weekend or early next week.

I think you may be right !

[wiltshire weather]

Just to illustrate the big differences currently in the models, 144hr charts from UKMO, GFS, ICON and GEM 12z runs:

   

[matt111]

Doesn’t exactly feel mild today with a fairly cold breeze, not springlike at all.