South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[jethro]

Just took these, everything nicely covered, I'm guessing a couple of cms.

[Bristawl Si]

Is it time to retreat to 'the sack' (wifey already tucked up and away with fairies) OR is next hour worth sitting up for? Thoughts

[A.J]

18 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

You have Sade with you?

 

he's a smooth operator lol

[kumquat]

10 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Will this hit or miss the iow? ???

That's surely hitting?

[Daniel]

I'm in the Southampton area I can confirm I am getting blizzard conditions here.

[EllyTech]

How tame it all feels compared to the other week?

 Temp -1C  Humidity 86%  Dewpoint -3C

 

[slinky1989]

My view over Swindon as of now. Settling readily and even got drifts of 3-4cm in places so far. Much bigger flakes and more level snow than last time.

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Is it time to retreat to 'the sack' (wifey already tucked up and away with fairies) OR is next hour worth sitting up for? Thoughts

I'd stay up and wait because the warning only started 15 minutes ago and the heavier snow hasn't even arrived yet.

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

I'm in the Southampton area I can confirm I am getting blizzard conditions here.

Yup definitely picked up here in the last few minutes, a nice little covering away from the roads too.

[wightwootton]

Picking up on the IOW now, quite large flakes and blowing around

[EllyTech]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

I'm in the Southampton area I can confirm I am getting blizzard conditions here.

You've got a quasi-stationary dollop going on over you. Which means, it's going to stay with you for a fair while.

[Mapantz]

She's starting to wake up!

[Guest]

                                                                                                                                                    TIME FOR AN UPDATE

My long posts on here with all the charts take an hour or two to prepare. They're quickly out-of-date. So, I'll break them down into much shorter ones covering a few different angles each time. 

        Live UK Rain/Snow Radar                            Live Infra Red Satelitte              These 3 Satelitte images are from a restricted site; I have special permission to copy them but I cannot disclose the source

            

Jet Stream showing upper low/cold pool         48 hour Pressure forecast                  48 hour wind direction  & speed                          Live 2 m Temps                                 Live Dew Point temps

              

You can clearly see the rotation in the Channel centred between the Cherbourg Peninsular and the Isle of Wight. This is evident in the radar, satelitte, pressure and wind charts. Arpege was again almost spot on. You can see the initial bulge in the pattern moving from the eastern Channel westwards and a small LP cell develops on that wave and pushes along close to the south coast from IOW westwards. The jet chart shows the upper LP pushing southwestwards through southern England. This has moved in all the way from eastern Europe and some of the lowest uppers (sub -12s) were dragged into the east with it (sub -10s over all of our region). The circulation in the mid Channel is not at the surface - so the very cold easterly is maintained. With the winds only coming off the land (east-north-easterlies) there should be no danger of any modification from the sea. Instead the moisture there will get into the middle level circulation and enhance the precipitation. The snow area has been moving from south east England and intensifying in the circulation. It's taking a slightly north-west route before turning south-westwards towards our region. It also engages with the shower activity on its northern edge. The snow in the western Channel is from the cold front that cleared our region earlier yesterday morning. It stalled and the LP is actually linking with it and reinvigorating it as it wriggles around as an occluded front (I'll show the fax chart on my next update). Most of the very heavy snow will develop rapidly over the Channel and merge with the snow moving westward. This is almost a three-pronged attack. I'll stick to what I suggested earlier. 5 to 10 cm in the south-east, 10 to 20 cm further west and potentially 30 cm + in parts of the south-west, locally more especially over the moors. Potential for a strong blizzard and even a red warning for the far south (IOW westwards and up to 20 to 50 miles inland) and much of Devon and Cornwall. Still some good accumulations further north, perhaps up to the south Midlands and south Wales. The snow is already growing heavier and the main event should be peaking within 3 hours. A lot more white (heavy snow) should be appearing on the radar within an hour or so. My lamp post goes off at 1 am but I'll be up for quite a few hours yet (at least).   

Edited March 18, 2018 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[matt111]

So who's lampposts are still on? They are here. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by matt111

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'd stay up and wait because the warning only started 15 minutes ago and the heavier snow hasn't even arrived yet.

Oakey dokey. I'll pour another Bacardi

[Joneseye]

As always I've been mainly lurking and analysing the last 6-7 weeks of our 'extended winter'. Heck my eldest said to me today 'Daddy why is it snowing in spring, it's not meant to snow in spring daddy' - yeah this year is different, darling...

Anyway if any of you lovely people read this. The point is as always micro level details of precip amounts in these situations are guidelines. There is some superb knowledge, experience and interpretation from the more knowledgeable posters on this forum.

I looked at the radar at 2255 and thought.. you know what its over for my location so close the the M4 (Bingo). In the back of my mind I kept seeing the images and reading the words of some of the excellent analysis about what might develop to the east. I peek back an hour later and there it is Sussex way developing.

 

 

 

 

[CheesepuffScott]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So who's lampposts are still on? They are here. 

Same! Actually don't think mine go off until sunrise, but I haven't really took notice

[EllyTech]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

She's starting to wake up!

Fair play to the Met Office. They might as well have fired a starting pistol.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, matt111 said:

So who's lampposts are still on? They are here. 

Ours go out in next 30 mins. South Glos council can afford to blow £millions of council taxpayers loot on swanky new council HQ but whinge about cuts to this, that and tother!! Sorry...wrong thread.

[Joneseye]

4 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

                                                                                                                                                    TIME FOR AN UPDATE

My long posts on here with all the charts take an hour or two to prepare. They're quickly out-of-date. So, I'll break them down into much shorter ones covering a few different angles each time. 

   

I'm sure I speak for many on here in saying THANKYOU!

the time and effort you put into your posts. How you illustrate your thinking and breaking things down into laymans terms is greatly appreciated.

[matt111]

All us Hampshire folk are lucky as none of the councils in the county switch the lights off until it get's light. 

Light snow still falling here while we await the heavier bit. 

[kumquat]

15 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What's everyone's snow depths at the moment? Got around 1cm here.

0.5 milliKentimetres...on the Murr scale. I honestly think we'll see 10cm now. The snow Gods from the South and East are aligning in a curved arc. Orion's bow is upon us.

[Derecho]

Lots of snowflakes here now, the daily mail disapproves.

The snowflakes are also getting bigger too 

[wightwootton]

1 minute ago, EllyTech said:

Fair play to the Met Office. They might as well have fired a starting pistol.

What rainfall radar is this EllyTech?

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

0.5 milliKentimetres...on the Murr scale. I honestly think we'll see 10cm now. The snow Gods from the South and East are aligning in a curved arc. Orion's bow is upon us.

Yep I'm still not getting my hopes up too much but I'm pretty sure most will see 10cm if not more.