South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[festivalking]

On and off snow since 2pm. Slight covering. Pub lots of fun tonight wish I was 24 again!

[chris55]

Looks like we are starting to see some circulation centred around the isle of white with the ppn beginning to pivot.

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

white with snow. Snow flakes large and fast. Lots of them......

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

there's nothing quite like a saturday night and having Positive Vorticity Advection in mapants .....lololol

don't worry I've already fetched me coat...lol

Just had an enjoyable read of the SE regional thread, funny as hell, a few members have lost the plot....handbags at dawn....lol

 

Yep I see we're yet again going to out-do them with the snow totals, I did warn them days ago that the same happened last time. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by Jayfromcardiff

[karlos1983]

and then there’s tomorrow ?

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Looks like we are starting to see some circulation centred around the isle of white with the ppn beginning to pivot.

 

Is this a good thing?

[kent]

4 minutes ago, jethro said:

Go up to Lansdown, it always snows there. Look on the bright side, being in a valley means you've got loads of hills to choose from for sledging in the morning, if you're feeling brave sledge down Brassknocker hill, it'll be traffic free because nothing will be able to get up it ;-)

Jethro lives between Bath and Wells.

In Netweather poetry she excels.

If the snow is deep enough I bet she will,

Be on her sledge down Brassknocker hill.

[matt111]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

and then there’s tomorrow ?

Oh go on then. 

Could the covering we hopefully get tonight end up lasting longer than the beast itself when it lasted 1 and a half days here after the day it fell? 

[A.J]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Yep I see we're yet again going to out-do then with the snow totals, I did warn them days ago that the same happened last time. 

it would be good military procedure to undergo a stealth mission into said thread and drop a few bombs........but being the mild mannered and all round 'good guy' I'd never suggest to do such a thing...... 

[stevofunnelcl]

beast from the east, somehow manages to lightly skip some more eastern areas, but delivers further west

Ahh well, count the number of times, we miss out, and other area's get pasted. Nice to have something different for a change

I can't believe i'm lamp-post watching, when it's an Amber

[Catacol]

6 minutes ago, Bazray said:

What are your thoughts of what will happen overnight Cat? Do you think the met o predictions are about right?

I'm no great sage on short term nowcasting... but my favourite tool is the Euro4 model which gives more detail I think than Arpege and is generally pretty accurate. It has maintained its position on the SW being hit by the sweet spot for several runs now... and as such for Devon and Somerset I feel quite optimistic. Main action will be tomorrow morning.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by Catacol

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

it would be good military procedure to undergo a stealth mission into said thread and drop a few bombs........but being the mild mannered and all round 'good guy' I'd never suggest to do such a thing...... 

Let's just say I'll be getting quite a few pics and videos of the snow overnight and they'll get some updates on the 'MURR SCALE' 

[Mike Poole]

I' m sorry to say that the 18z HIRLAM has backtracked a bit for everyone in the south.

Cumulative snow through to to Monday:

Still some interest for our region, but that Met Office warning for the SE todger-shaped region is looking wafer thin now!  I've just been looking at the   SE thread, (I'm right on the border) and it's not been pretty.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[karlos1983]

My heaviest snow of the evening now. Accumulating nicely at last 

[Evening thunder]

Argh. Quite heavy looking snow has formed over the Blackdowns but I'm in a gap, with moderate snow also not far to my SW for the last few hours (at one point the radar showed us under the edge but we weren't, wind probably blew it a couple miles away by the time it reached the ground lol). It's clearly topographically induced, but hope it doesn't stay like this all night...

The earlier little bit of snow that didn't really settle here looked quite pretty on nearby hills, this a sheltered spot just above Exmouth.

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I' m sorry to say that the 18z HIRLAM has backtracked a bit for everyone in the south.

Cumulative snow through to to Monday:

Still some interest for our region, but that Met Office for the SE todger-shaped warning is looking wafer thin now!  I've just been looking at the   SE thread, (I'm right on the border) and it's not been pretty.

Better off looking at radars from now on, I certainly won't be analysing models once the snow starts properly.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I' m sorry to say that the 18z HIRLAM has backtracked a bit for everyone in the south.

Cumulative snow through to to Monday:

Still some interest for our region, but that Met Office warning for the SE todger-shaped warning is looking wafer thin now!  I've just been looking at the   SE thread, (I'm right on the border) and it's not been pretty.

At least cornwall gets a ton 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Better off looking at radars from now on, I certainly won't be analysing models once the snow starts properly.

Plus that’s now not taken the snowfall it saw throughout the day, which didn’t settle. So it might look a downgrade, but looks fine to me. On course.

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I' m sorry to say that the 18z HIRLAM has backtracked a bit for everyone in the south.

Cumulative snow through to to Monday:

Still some interest for our region, but that Met Office warning for the SE todger-shaped warning is looking wafer thin now!  I've just been looking at the   SE thread, (I'm right on the border) and it's not been pretty.

still yellow snow for me.....you'd really think at 47 I'd be potty trained by now...lol

[Catacol]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I' m sorry to say that the 18z HIRLAM has backtracked a bit for everyone in the south.

Cumulative snow through to to Monday:

Still some interest for our region, but that Met Office warning for the SE todger-shaped warning is looking wafer thin now!  I've just been looking at the   SE thread, (I'm right on the border) and it's not been pretty.

Cumulative snow charts arent worth the pixels they are shown on. That chart generally shows the warnings are in the right place - the rest is down to luck. How on earth can people be getting jumpy now?!! Good grief - this has only just started....

 

[Nick Croker]

Nice and white outside now and got to go out and get my daughter from the pub later which could be interesting.

 

[jethro]

9 minutes ago, kent said:

Jethro lives between Bath and Wells.

In Netweather poetry she excels.

If the snow is deep enough I bet she will,

Be on her sledge down Brassknocker hill.

Brilliant!

[Mapantz]

Just went out for a smoke and used the full 13,000 lumens in the sky. It was rather hypnotic!

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

and then there’s tomorrow ?

Yes this "round 2" (or is it 3?) definitely trending upwards for the south coast.

Don't know about you but I've found this evening like torture trying to work out what's going on!! All week I've been thinking "wait until you see the radar" - well I can see the radar and I still don't know if it's going to happen here tonight! Mind you, west of Hampshire looks like a case of how much rather than if!

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Cumulative snow charts arent worth the pixels they are shown on. That chart generally shows the warnings are in the right place - the rest is down to luck. How on earth can people be getting jumpy now?!! Good grief - this has only just started....

 

Lesson learnt in 5 minutes, don't present evidence that goes against people's expectations.  Sorry. Won't do it again.