South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[AWD]

Based on a blend of 0z model data;

- pretty much anywhere could see snow flurries or snow showers over the next 48hrs

- accumulative snowfall looks greatest over Dorset, West & South Somerset, Devon & North Cornwall.  The moors at most risk of significant snowfall overnight tonight.

- small patchy accumulations elsewhere if you are lucky enough to receive numerous showers.  Areas north of the M4 at lower risk of accumulative snowfall.

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

You excited for the snow later mate?

Yes I am but im so anxious it will miss... my reputation at work hangs in the balance 

[andy_leics22]

In Oxford for the weekend and I can confirm moderate snow is now falling  horizontal snow as well due to the strength of the wind!

[Bristawl Si]

V light rain here. Tonite/tom looks best for snow in Cornwall, Devon and S Somerset.

V different 'build up' to last time. Then we had a few days of cold and v cold overnight. Yday it was 12c here.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Bristle boy

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, andy_leics22 said:

In Oxford for the weekend and I can confirm moderate snow is now falling  horizontal snow as well due to the strength of the wind!

Is it powder snow like Beast V1.0

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

V light rain here. Tonite/tom looks best for snow in Cornwall, Devon and S Somerset

I expect the amber warning to be dropped for east of region and extended west maybe later..

[karlos1983]

Sleep could be an issue tonight 

[EllyTech]

6 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

The overnight HIRLAM really shows most of our area getting a lot of snow tomorrow. Not so much for us up in the NE but certainly for the West Country. I notice that it's also now showing a new disturbance zipping across later on Sunday now as well....

I like the sound of Bring Back1962-63\s quasi-stationary troughs. This means there's a higher chance that the precip will keep coming and dumping snow on us.

[wiltshire weather]

5 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

I like the sound of Bring Back1962-63\s quasi-stationary troughs. This means there's a higher chance that the precip will keep coming and dumping snow on us.

I really hope I'm wrong, but we 'northerners', in England anyway as opposed to the Welsh contingent, look too be just to far North for most of the action! 

Edited March 17, 2018 by wiltshire weather

[andy_leics22]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Is it powder snow like Beast V1.0

Well, it was powdery at the beginning when it was lighter but now it's picked up, it's now bigger, wetter flakes but still settling on grass and cars!

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

I really hope I'm wrong, but we 'northerners', in England anyway as opposed to the Welsh contingent, look to be just to far North for most of the action!

I don't think we will get as much as Dorset/Devon etc. And for me, that's a happy compromise as I feel sure there will be enough of a covering here to keep the children happy until bedtime Sunday - but at the same time,  giving my Broad Beans a chance at life. The beast almost took them out, and they now need healing Spring warmth.! 

[dryjoy]

I’d usually be dead excited about this, and to some extent I still am, but we’re supposed to be travelling off on holiday to Minehead from our village near blandford on Monday. Our daughter is going to have a very difficult time if we have to delay our trip. She is on the autism spectrum, and would find any delay very difficult to cope with. 

[karlos1983]

Weeeeeeeeeeeee

EDiT: transition now happening, we’ve gone from rain to sleet. Expect snow to follow pretty quickly as the temp continues to slide!! Earlier than expected 

Edited March 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[Leon1]

Already seen a few flakes falling, only for a minute. Hopefully that band up around Oxford now is going to pep up now as it approaches...

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Weeeeeeeeeeeee

Strange to see such a plummet as day breaks and the spring sun rises in the sky 

[Stormyskies56]

Snowing lightly in Swindon ?

[andy_leics22]

3 minutes ago, dryjoy said:

I’d usually be dead excited about this, and to some extent I still am, but we’re supposed to be travelling off on holiday to Minehead from our village near blandford on Monday. Our daughter is going to have a very difficult time if we have to delay our trip. She is on the autism spectrum, and would find any delay very difficult to cope with. 

Hope the roads are clear by then! They should be as I think the gritters will be working overtime on Sunday night into Monday. It looks like the worst of it will be over by Monday anyway and the temp picks up a bit too.

I worked for 4 years as a learning disabilities support worker so I completely understand your situation!

[EllyTech]

Just now, Nights King said:

Strange to see such a plummet as day breaks and the spring sun rises in the sky 

Lost a degree C here already since my last report.

Temp 0C  Humidity 83%  Dewpoint -1C  

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Strange to see such a plummet as day breaks and the spring sun rises in the sky 

Love days like this!! By mid day it could be 0c!! A full 12.0C colder than the same time yesterday!! Insane 

[Nights King]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Love days like this!! By mid day it could be 0c!! A full 12.0C colder than the same time yesterday!! Insane 

Some rapid evaporative cooling taking place with the ground now too!

Drying out very fast with a strong gusty wind. -0.6c

 

[EllyTech]

Fine, light snow still falling. Ditto with the ground drying out.

[Frosty hollows]

Was 3c when i got up. Now 0c DP0c too

[dryjoy]

7 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

Hope the roads are clear by then! They should be as I think the gritters will be working overtime on Sunday night into Monday. It looks like the worst of it will be over by Monday anyway and the temp picks up a bit too.

I worked for 4 years as a learning disabilities support worker so I completely understand your situation!

Thanks. I’m very much hoping it’ll be as you say, it’d be great if we can enjoy the snow together tomorrow and then get away without too many problems on Monday. 

[Singularity]

Well you know what, the frequency and intensity of showers piling in off the N Sea is well beyond any model predictions I've seen, so if the flow behaves well enough for a bit of Thames streamer action behind the frontal boundary, there could be a good few cm for some in the east of our region ahead of the overnight potential.

As for what goes on overnight and through tomorrow, still very wide model spread there, with WRF-NMM tending to focus more on CS England, while HIRLAM hammers the western parts hardest (but not without a fair bit for the east too, as already noted by others). 

ECM now hammers the whole region with heavy snow for a time, but western parts for longest (BA's red warning inspiration?). From that I can see the amber warning being extended across to the Solent area, and yes, a red seems a good shout for inland Devon and Cornwall.

[wiltshire weather]

Just starting to snow here, a few flakes blowing in the wind.

Temp now down to 1.6degC

Really must get myself a proper weather station this year, any recommendations?