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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Speaking of panic buying, where’s @*Stormforce~beka*:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

My camelia is sticking it's buds up to the least from the east and putting on show. And I've not fed it yet, but armed and ready....

20180316_173031.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest 12z Arpege model shows a respectable "spring" covering of snow across many parts of our region by the end of the weekend;

snowdepth_054.thumb.jpg.b862ac4c41bec0065ebc06ecc71f1491.jpg

 

How much of this would actually survive the stronger sun etc remains to be seen.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Just now, AWD said:

Latest 12z Arpege model shows a respectable "spring" covering of snow across many parts of our region by the end of the weekend;

snowdepth_084.thumb.jpg.72c467f6a6cd57e8b9330a3a20bb4936.jpg

How much of this would actually survive the stronger sun etc remains to be seen.

well, if we take this as gospel, less than 1cm down here will disappear in microseconds...

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest 12z Hirlam goes quite wild with snow accumulations across the UK by midday Sunday;

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.8e820763ecd9e3d4457089385acabf64.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

No wonder people get confused.

Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lol the latest BBC forecast pointed out the amber warning in the SW... but it then showed the snow to the SW of the amber warning region.

image.thumb.png.1c7a7c1700c92df7dcd3fd211e0dbe02.png  image.thumb.png.62939868abc614e3ec87f9e2c8396d9e.png

No wonder people get confused.

Warnings from the met office say one thing, the BBC say another, I know which one of the two I'd trust...

LOL - It makes you think sometimes where the BBC get their information from....

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

LOL - It makes you think sometimes where the BBC get their information from....

Spirograph from Cardiff. 

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
39 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Bought just one carton of long life milk. You know what happens to the supermarkets when some snow is in the offing. 

giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

 

   Yep, I now have milk and bread. And gin. I’m sorted.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
21 minutes ago, Gary R Betreen said:

I am in Cricklade/Cirencester on Sat/Sun/Mon.  Coming from Manchester.   What does anyone think about Sunday in Cricklade, heavy snow?

@Jayfromcardiff  Will it snow in Cricklade? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
29 minutes ago, Gary R Betreen said:

I am in Cricklade/Cirencester on Sat/Sun/Mon.  Coming from Manchester.   What does anyone think about Sunday in Cricklade, heavy snow?

I'd go for snow definitely,  heavy maybe. Too early to call it accurately. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest 12z EURO4 suggests elevation will play a part, keeping any accumulative snowfall to higher parts of the region such as Exmoor, Dartmoor & the Mendips;

18031812_1612.thumb.gif.0015414b7ba2e08d5c8cf6d65c7e69eb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
1 minute ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z EURO4 suggests elevation will play a part, keeping any accumulative snowfall to higher parts of the region such as Exmoor, Dartmoor & the Mendips;

18031812_1612.thumb.gif.0015414b7ba2e08d5c8cf6d65c7e69eb.gif

3 dollops on the Cotswold Hills. That's our lot. 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
24 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z Hirlam goes quite wild with snow accumulations across the UK by midday Sunday;

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.8e820763ecd9e3d4457089385acabf64.jpg

Hmm, Irish coast south of Dublin looking like it'll get another pasting.  Do hope this pub in Sallins dug itself out and stocked up on the dark stuff for St Patricks day......

Sallins Friday morning (Picture: James Lawless)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

nmm_uk1-42-18-0.png?16-17 nmm_uk1-42-20-0.png?16-17

The highest resolution variant of WRF-NMM paints a very interesting picture for tomorrow morning; we wake up to dreary old rain showers but by mid-morning there should be a sharp transition to snow taking place as the low-dew point air kicks in, at which point those wanting a covering will be urging the showers to keep their intensity up as long as they can in the face of the drier continental feed.

The rest of the day looks to be either light showers or longer spells of very light snow;

nmm_uk1-42-26-0.png?16-17

So I see the mid-morning period as the best chance to get a covering in place for the day. It won't be easy though given the lack of recent freezing - I expect it will take a bit of luck to see the snow rate overcome the melt rate before the heavier showers clear away.

Overnight into Sunday, the more persistent and heavier area of snow has been trending further west as the disturbance doesn't edge north as soon as was looking to be the case.

nmm_uk1-42-36-0.png?16-18

The Met Office seem to be working on the assumption that either this trend will continue with the likes of WRF-NMM, or that the ECM 00z will be on the money with its surprisingly far to the west solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest forecast for Bristol based on the 12z Arpege;

 

IMG_20180316_181859.thumb.png.04ccfce8a39d4018b09a0d6cd270f8f0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I giveth the Hirlam

hirlam-45-48-0.png?16-17

15-20 cm for Princetown!

I'll snap your hand off for 7-9 cm thanks on March 18th :drunk:

according to that map, I've got yellow snow again....lol

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