South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[karlos1983]

30 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Our old friend the HIRLAM model is also now getting within range.

Precipitation charts Friday into Saturday show the decaying front moving SW with some light snow associated with it as the cold air digs in.

Aperge also looking very tasty!! 06z only runs out to +72, so more would follow.

  

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by karlos1983

[Mapantz]

I think the above charts are rather ambitious, and not taking snow melt in to consideration.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I think the above charts are rather ambitious, and not taking snow melt in to consideration.

I think the above chart is rather pessimistic and didn't fare to well last time round  

[Dorsetbred]

Due to the direction and strength of the easterly wind over the weekend, the Dorset dome has been blown WSW, and now covers most of Devon. We thank you in your patience, normal service will be restored as soon as monday!

 

[festivalking]

11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Due to the direction and strength of the easterly wind over the weekend, the Dorset dome has been blown WSW, and now covers most of Devon. We thank you in your patience, normal service will be restored as soon as monday!

 

Anytime! Cheque in the post?

[Georgie]

We have has a weather warning in North Somerset is there any chance it will come this far west?

 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Georgie said:

We have has a weather warning in North Somerset is there any chance it will come this far west?

 

nowhere in our region is exempt, although the further South and East looking in better shape IMO at the moment.. but it really depends on what happens with the disturbance Saturday night through Sunday, because if it doesn't develop or pushed south, the showers probably wont cut it for any of us. We are in the game for now, next 24 hours hopefully will firm up one way or the other. The MetO clearly think there's a good chance of it happening, hence the warnings, we shall see. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

nowhere in our region is exempt, although the further South and East looking in better shape IMO at the moment.. but it really depends on what happens with the disturbance Saturday night through Sunday, because if it doesn't develop or pushed south, the showers probably wont cut it for any of us. We are in the game for now, next 24 hours hopefully will firm up one way or the other. The MetO clearly think there's a good chance of it happening, hence the warnings, we shall see. 

Will it snow in Cardiff ?

[karlos1983]

If we do get another snow event this weekend, do we consider this a decent winter...? 

For me Yes & No........ No because it had potential to be so much better on a few occasions, Yes because we have had one of the most memorable snow events in recent times, technically it wasn't winter though  I think another decent snow event will pull me towards a Yes Yes Yes. 

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If we do get another snow event this weekend, do we consider this a decent winter...? 

For me Yes & No........ No because it had potential to be so much better on a few occasions, Yes because we have had one of the most memorable snow events in recent times, technically it wasn't winter though  I think another decent snow event will pull me towards a Yes Yes Yes. 

I’d agree with that. We missed out on a lot earlier in the winter the snow we did have was worth the wait and another snow event will do nicely to finish off the winter, even if as you say, it’s not technically winter now. 

[warmintim]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I’d agree with that. We missed out on a lot earlier in the winter the snow we did have was worth the wait and another snow event will do nicely to finish off the winter, even if as you say, it’s not technically winter now. 

It'll always be subjective (places not that far from me had several proper falls of snow before the Beast, whereas I only had snow falling, with very little accumulation. I have to say that all I've ever wanted is a spell like the 1st Beast, once a year. If that was guaranteed, I'd be a happy weather watcher. That its been 5 years since the most recent decent fall makes this a special winter that I'll recall fondly along with 2009, 2010 (twice) and 2013.

[jtay]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If we do get another snow event this weekend, do we consider this a decent winter...? 

For me Yes & No........ No because it had potential to be so much better on a few occasions, Yes because we have had one of the most memorable snow events in recent times, technically it wasn't winter though  I think another decent snow event will pull me towards a Yes Yes Yes. 

It feels like it's been a long one.

[karlos1983]

Just now, jtay said:

It feels like it's been a long one.

Not arrrfff! I'm beat!! 

[wiltshire weather]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I think the above charts are rather ambitious, and not taking snow melt in to consideration.

2

It will be interesting to see how it pans out with wall to wall cloud cover Sat/Sun for my locale and temperatures forecast to barely get above freezing from 6am Saturday until 9am Monday ! 

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I think the above chart is rather pessimistic and didn't fare to well last time round  

Have a look through the archive thread, some of the NetWx snow depth charts were actually very good. ARPEGE always over-eggs precipitation values, probably why it's near the bottom of the pile when it comes to forecast verification accuracy. 

[MP-R]

Nowhere near as many showers as expected so far today. 

Can't decide if I'm looking forward to the prospect of snow or not. Perhaps if I decided not to, it will snow lol.

[MattTarrant]

26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Have a look through the archive thread, some of the NetWx snow depth charts were actually very good. ARPEGE always over-eggs precipitation values, probably why it's near the bottom of the pile when it comes to forecast verification accuracy. 

ARPEGE handled Storm Emma accumulation values well, though obviously as mentioned by yourself it likely fared a little worse in other setups in the past. In regards to the verification statistics of the 'High Res Models' (Yourself Posted A Graph A Few Weeks Back), Arome delivered the highest score though seemingly struggled from the 26th (Feb) to 3rd (March).

If ARPEGE continues to be analysed a very crude rule of thumb may potentially be used; 

. In a broad precipitation (snow) setup, subtract 1 - 3 cm off the total. 5cm predicted (0z Run 1 March) In Swansea Region, only 2/3cm Fell. 

. In a showery setup, conclude a less broad nature to snow accumulations. 

. Within 36hr it models well the areas of heaviest snow. 

HIRLAM & Euro4 perform consistently also albeit Euro4 having a weakness in North Westerly airflow's. 

Edited March 15, 2018 by MattTarrant

[lettice]

What a lovely day its been today, sunny 10-11.8c, very light ESE wind.
But its looking a little grey now.

Had a big update as the forecasts has gone through the day. From Sat night through till 6pm Sunday, every hour showing light snow.

[Mapantz]

Managed 12.3°C today. Even got the first lawn mow of the year in.

[EllyTech]

3 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Will it snow in Cardiff ?

[A.J]

3 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Will it snow in Cardiff ?

[Mapantz]

It almost looks like a Summer thunderstorm coming up from the South - very dark.

[Dorsetbred]

4 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Will it snow in Cardiff ?

 

[Dorsetbred]

Leading edge of tonight's cloud has just arrived over the top of us here, now we wait for the rain..

[EllyTech]

'Unstable' type of dark, smokey cloud above, with a little scud tool.