SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

Knowing this thread I'm quite surprised no one has caved in yet. I hope the stalled front decides to pep up a bit, nothing more annoying than snizzle which is what I would expect normally from a stalling front around here, obviously normally drizzle.

Edited March 16, 2018 by alexisj9

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Mixed emotions from me today- 

Heres the Summary:

Some people say its hard to forecast a streamer-

Its not- Its a peice of cake just using the 500 charts & the windflow barbs- hence 36-48 hours ago the upper air cold pool was modelled to hit us direct with boat loads of convective snow fall-

The difficult bit is actualy getting to the point where the modelling of said streamer actually lands!

So in the last 24 hours the 'hit' from the upper air cold pool & lowest uppers has moved up towards lincs-

That will put us in a slightly less favourable position for convection ( Sat into sun ) however what that does is throw higher uncertainty into the forecast because the models are still placing lots of PPN in the SE which are still associated with the upper low 

However gone are the streamers - The favourable areas have perhaps moves away from North Kent / SE london - more towards West / East Sussex which is closer proximity to the low - 

The 06z Hirlam does show the PPN clearing by Sunday morning-

However because we seem to squeeze another full day of cold sunday now ( IKON 06Z 66-78 then the threat of more snow showers moves back in-

So maybe not those original elevated todays we had first expected - moderated downwards to 2-10cm widespread- maybe a bit deeper in the more favourable spots

with 24 hours to go theres still 50 or so miles scope for change but not enough to move the upper cold pool directly overhead again...

Thanks Steve.

Great summary, as always.

[Number 23]

5 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

"Snow penetrating deep inland"

[onepingonly]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Knowing this thread I'm quite surprised no one has caved in yet.

Exactly my thinking. Maybe all too scared of getting banned before the big event.

[sunnijim]

15 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

Caption Competition time! 

'Areas around London to get a few inches on Saturday night'.

[alexisj9]

Finally the heavy snow symbol has made it to Dover on meto app, only for 4 hours, 19:00 till 22:00, I wonder.

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

Could be in for some of the white stuff tonight...if anyone's up for it!

[lassie23]

It was nice to feel the warmth of the sun this morning, so glad it's spring now and the chase for snow has ended

[shaky]

28 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

I guess thats going to be injecting a lot of fluid in the form of snow?

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

It was nice to feel the warmth of the sun this morning, so glad it's spring now and the chase for snow has ended

Suns gone here now, got milky looking sky instead. 

[kold weather]

34 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Model output this morning all over the place with snow amounts just 24-36 hours out, though it looks likely the Met Office are running with the idea of the cold front moving in from the NE on Saturday stalling across southern most counties of England later in the day and overnight into Sunday, as it comes up against developing low over northern France impeding further movement south.

Some of the higher res models such as HIRLAM and ARPEGE going with the idea of slow-moving area of snowfall across SE England tomorrow and into early Sunday before it clears away westwards during Sunday. Lift along the slow-moving frontal boundary coupled with convergence for favoured areas along and downwind of the Thames Estuary likely to play a key part in enhancing snowfall in places.

Yep that is how I'm reading it as well, worth watching that front on Saturday morning to see how much intensity it can sustain. I'm not convinced much will settle on Sat morning down here UNLESS the front is of the strength of the GFS/HIRLAM forecasted to help pull the colder air down towards the ground which is clearly aloft.

Sat evening into Sunday is reallygiving me early Dec 10 vibes right now, the actual amounts that fell were higher than I first thought, widely 20cms across southern parts of the region.

[snowray]

No doubt about it, the hirlam model that performed so well in the Beast part one is showing the best outcome for the sequel in our region, lets hope its close to the mark and we hit the Jackpot to a memorable couple of days.

Acumul @ +T48

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Suns gone here now, got milky looking sky instead. 

put your pint bottles out, hopefully it will be semi skimmed that falls from the milky clouds

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Finally the heavy snow symbol has made it to Dover on meto app, only for 4 hours, 19:00 till 22:00, I wonder.

The further east we can get them heavy snow symbols the better this time round. The streamer would be fab but if not then just as good is the heavy snow coming up from the continent, ideally we want this snow moving up from east Kent and in towards the Thames Estuary, it then starts to move west and will give just about all of the region a good few hours of snow, this is the stuff that could be heavy Saturday evening and into the early hours of Sunday.

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Suns gone here now, got milky looking sky instead. 

It's coming!

[Me & angel fiance]

Hi all

This has got to be the first snow event ever in my life that I have NOT wanted anything to happen. 

We are meant to be moving over the weekend. Hiring the van here in Stevenage, loading it up Saturday night, driving it down to Ramsgate Sunday, unloading to storage there on Monday, driving the van back to Stevenage on Tuesday, and then collecting our home for the next few months - our caravan from Essex and towing her back down to Ramsgate. Then we are settling down. So I been so busy doing stuff, I haven't taken any notice of the weather really, the past few weeks, and then bam I hear something about Amber warnings. A quick check on the Met O and now it's all slowly going pearshaped possibly.. Aaaggh. 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

put your pint bottles out, hopefully it will be semi skimmed that falls from the milky clouds

Don't think there any moisture in them, just didn't expect to see this milky high cloud build in, ruining today's sun shine.

[Frostbite1980]

11 minutes ago, Hearts in Herts said:

Hi all

This has got to be the first snow event ever in my life that I have NOT wanted anything to happen. 

We are meant to be moving over the weekend. Hiring the van here in Stevenage, loading it up Saturday night, driving it down to Ramsgate Sunday, unloading to storage there on Monday, driving the van back to Stevenage on Tuesday, and then collecting our home for the next few months - our caravan from Essex and towing her back down to Ramsgate. Then we are settling down. So I been so busy doing stuff, I haven't taken any notice of the weather really, the past few weeks, and then bam I hear something about Amber warnings. A quick check on the Met O and now it's all slowly going pearshaped possibly.. Aaaggh. 

I wouldn’t worry about Herts end it’s more driving to Kent that may be tricky. Good luck with the move ?

[snowking]

57 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Model output this morning all over the place with snow amounts just 24-36 hours out, though it looks likely the Met Office are running with the idea of the cold front moving in from the NE on Saturday stalling across southern most counties of England later in the day and overnight into Sunday, as it comes up against developing low over northern France impeding further movement south.

Some of the higher res models such as HIRLAM and ARPEGE going with the idea of slow-moving area of snowfall across SE England tomorrow and into early Sunday before it clears away westwards during Sunday. Lift along the slow-moving frontal boundary coupled with convergence for favoured areas along and downwind of the Thames Estuary likely to play a key part in enhancing snowfall in places.

Far more elegantly put than I could ever manage.

I was a little surprised to see the amber warning appear I must say but I suspect it is the longevity of the snowfall as shown on the 6z E4, as opposed to the intensity, that has led to that warning. Presumably the UKV must be showing similar

I still remain a little sceptical of the need for that warning area I must say, but will be more than happy to be proven wrong...just as long as I can get to the pub for the rugby

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Don't think there any moisture in them, just didn't expect to see this milky high cloud build in, ruining today's sun shine.

That milky cloud is clearing here as it goes, just had a shower, sun now out. Gravesend up to 14c, never expected it to be this mild today.

[Atmogenic]

I'm probably one of the only ones here who would rather have the snow go away and keep with warmth and storms, We had our little bit of winter late Feb/early march and now that the sun is getting warmer having additional snow would be pointless. It will cause nothing special and it would melt within a few days unlike in December or January where it can be laying on the ground for weeks, so for me the further north the better.

[Me & angel fiance]

2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I wouldn’t worry about Herts end it’s more driving to Kent that may be tricky. Good luck with the move ?

Yes looking at the warning areas (which I know can shift), we are going from a yellow to a yellow area, with a journey right through the middle of an Amber.. My fiancé wants us to change it to the following weekend, and I don't want to but.. Thank you 

[lawrenk]

24 minutes ago, snowray said:

No doubt about it, the hirlam model that performed so well in the Beast part one is showing the best outcome for the sequel in our region, lets hope its close to the mark and we hit the Jackpot to a memorable couple of days.

Acumul @ +T48

For once in my life I am right in the sweet spot on that (little grey blob) in the middle of the orange.

Agreed, HIRLAM has always been the best model!

[Dami]

58 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

*Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

I don't know. You lot. You perfectly can see it 's a 'Y' and stands for 'yeah baby' Cor deary dear.  Met O are obviously very excited about this snow. 

 

[Methuselah]

It'd better snow; I've cleaned my windows so that I can analyse the flakes' finer detail as they fall!