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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards


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I'm losing the will to live.  Once again, for those at the back. The main snow risk isn't until 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. The colde

So the cold is almost at an end with a steady thaw expected over the coming days. As such the region will be one again. May I just say that the last week has been a real experience and I must tha

Some people need to grow up. If you want to bicker and snipe do it via PM. Because the rest of us don’t want to know.

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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 minutes ago, Bob Lee said:

    Gone are streamers so Metoffice warning jumping the gun? 

    I think its to cover all bases & theres enough uncertainty to put there

    its a difficult one because the 2009 upper windflow was EESE but we hit the jackpot with the upper air cold pool-

    So possibly a toned down version-

    Its nice not knowing with a bit of mystery- but equally its better to know your slap bang in the perfect zone & going to get boat loads !

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

     

    So maybe not those original elevated todays we had first expected - moderated downwards to 2-10cm widespread- maybe a bit deeper in the more favourable spots

    with 24 hours to go theres still 50 or so miles scope for change but not enough to move the upper cold pool directly overhead again...

    Agreed, but I've been thinking for a while a low may well form on the western extent of the cold pool, sure enough the models are now suggesting that. At times this area has done real well out of such situations, my most recent example obviously being Dec 10.

    I'd say your range is looking good, but with the small caveat that the big daddy solution is out there which could easily double those figures.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, kold weather said:

    Agreed, but I've been thinking for a while a low may well form on the western extent of the cold pool, sure enough the models are now suggesting that. At times this area has done real well out of such situations, my most recent example obviously being Dec 10.

    I'd say your range is looking good, but with the small caveat that the big daddy solution is out there which could easily double those figures.

    Yep lets hope big daddy gets up early tomorrow !

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    Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

    Just over a month til the move to The Midlands and low and behold an Amber warning for snow. I shall be on snow watch again. Personally not sure we will get much if any but we shall see.

    Sun out. Blue sky and clouds. Chicken' enjoying the garden. A tad chilly though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yep lets hope big daddy gets up early tomorrow !

    I love the HIRLAM because the frontal zone never actually clears us and it just restrengthens overtop, basically mod snow in the morning, light through afternoon and then back into the heavier stuff early-mid evening and it stays all night. Raw output from HIRLAM gets to 15-20cms over adecent part of our area with some heavy stuff still falling over the west of the region, so could still add 5cms ont that figure for a 'total storm' outcome. Still, that is probably by far the best case.

    GFS to be fair is doing similar but on a weaker scale.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    I love the HIRLAM because the frontal zone never actually clears us and it just restrengthens overtop, basically mod snow in the morning, light through afternoon and then back into the heavier stuff early-mid evening and it stays all night. Raw output from HIRLAM gets to 15-20cms over adecent part of our area with some heavy stuff still falling over the west of the region, so could still add 5cms ont that figure for a 'total storm' outcome. Still, that is probably by far the best case.

    GFS to be fair is doing similar but on a weaker scale.

    Just checked your new location...

    Your in the wrong thread lol.

    Banned.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    24 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

    Amber warning out for parts of the SE (and London) for Saturday into Sunday 

    It’s just missing us :-( Hope it changes for the better by the next update time ? 

    About time the luck changed for the snow starved Thames valley

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Five miles to the east of amber so annoying.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    REALLY. An AMBER warning. 

    I AM MEANT TO BE OFF NW FOR MY SUMMER LUL!!!!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    06z Euro4 is out, shows steady snowfall for the region but no sign of anything particularly heavy so I guess no streamer.

    Slightly heavier stuff actually around the Met Office warning area.

    18031712_1606.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Barn, Kent
  • Location: New Barn, Kent
    36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yep lets hope big daddy gets up early tomorrow !

    Steve, 

    How do you think we’ll fair up here in NW Kent please?

    Always value your thoughts mate

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
    1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

    Just had a quick look basically nothing has yet been decided, when it comes to where will get the heavy snow. We know the cold is coming, time to start looking at radar from when we wake up tomorrow.

    Dilemma, dilemma, even though the house is warm, there only needs to be a cold draft on the baby bird for it to be fatal, it is relatvely too big for the parents to sit on it and keep it warm now, but its still tiny and has only a thin cover of feathers, I might end up (yet again) with a baby bird down my bra for a few days.

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    30 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    It’s just missing us :-( Hope it changes for the better by the next update time ? 

    About time the luck changed for the snow starved Thames valley

    True, but I wouldn't worry too much about that, it'll no doubt come down to radar watching.

    The HIRLAM still looks quite promising for our area and did quite well last time round.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    Wow having spent all winter either far from snow or literally miles or even YARDS from the warning zones, I seem to be slap bang in the middle of an Amber this time!!!!:yahoo: Sooo unexpected and as much as I was wanting Spring, I've gotta make the most of this as probably won't see it again for another 5yrs, lol!x

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    18 minutes ago, cjwardy said:

    Steve, 

    How do you think we’ll fair up here in NW Kent please?

    Always value your thoughts mate

    on the cusp

    suspected convective snow 1-5cm

    plus Frontal snow from the south 1-5cm

    North of 5cm 50/50 higher chance further SW you go-

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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    There you go! 

    Thames streamer is likely 

    Screenshot_20180316-102533.thumb.png.0c334cba53d2edd16ae49277b95e6720.png

    Im smack bang in the middle of that warning last time we saw this it went red but not expecting that this time 

    Hello Surrey,

    and so am I.

    I have rather mixed feelings on this one as my eldest son has to go up to London on Tuesday for a hospital appointment that he should not really miss. Hopefully there will not be any travel disruption by then.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Model output this morning all over the place with snow amounts just 24-36 hours out, though it looks likely the Met Office are running with the idea of the cold front moving in from the NE on Saturday stalling across southern most counties of England later in the day and overnight into Sunday, as it comes up against developing low over northern France impeding further movement south.

    Some of the higher res models such as HIRLAM and ARPEGE going with the idea of slow-moving area of snowfall across SE England tomorrow and into early Sunday before it clears away westwards during Sunday. Lift along the slow-moving frontal boundary coupled with convergence for favoured areas along and downwind of the Thames Estuary likely to play a key part in enhancing snowfall in places.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    What's your thoughts on Maidstone Steve. We did pretty well a couple of weeks ago.  Cheers!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    10 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

    Wow having spent all winter either far from snow or literally miles or even YARDS from the warning zones, I seem to be slap bang in the middle of an Amber this time!!!!:yahoo: Sooo unexpected and as much as I was wanting Spring, I've gotta make the most of this as probably won't see it again for another 5yrs, lol!x

    I’m tempted to drive to Leatherhead on Sat night ❄️❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Petersfield, South Downs, Hampshire, 180m ASL
  • Location: Petersfield, South Downs, Hampshire, 180m ASL

    *Resists schoolboy humour on the shape of the warning*

    Screen Shot 2018-03-16 at 12.01.59.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!!
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex

    I'm right on the line between East and West Sussex, we certainly havent seen any noteworthy snow in this immediate area over this Beastly period so keeping fingers crossed for this weekend. 

    It all seemed so likely yesterday, today not so much. I do hope my fellow Sussex peeps get to see some decent snow at this last chance saloon. I'd hate to be in the party of remembering 2018 Beast for all the snow that fell around us ?

    Either way, a plethora of drinks is at the ready for lamppost watching. I wish ALL of you in the SE bucket loads of snow ???

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