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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
    8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Just checked radar and looked like the sun is helping to build showers in the south today, let's see what they do later.

    I was hoping this would happen to minimize the warming effect of the sun on the ground so temps can scoot down quicker tonight

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    I'm losing the will to live.  Once again, for those at the back. The main snow risk isn't until 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. The colde

    So the cold is almost at an end with a steady thaw expected over the coming days. As such the region will be one again. May I just say that the last week has been a real experience and I must tha

    Some people need to grow up. If you want to bicker and snipe do it via PM. Because the rest of us don’t want to know.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    42 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

    It’s very quiet this morning. Need advice really. It’s my baby girls 2nd birthday on Sunday.  My husband has told me that he’s invited his perantsbt come down from London for some lunch. I didn’t invite anyone just because I was aware of the weather situation.  He then tells me that he’s invited my mum and dad. I did a food shop on Tuesday and didn’t get “party food”  I was just going through do a little party for the family then something next week.  Question 1: How bad might this be ??? Question 2: all my apps including meto are telling me it’s going to snow from 6am sat morning? Is this a potential??? I was goIng to get food tomorrow morning early??????? HELLLLLLLPPPPPP

    It’s not going to be bad and you will be fine to get out to get food and for your parents to get home fine 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    All kicking off a bit in the MAD thread as to who will get what this weekend.

    All good fun!

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    so the way i see is 

    overnight tonight a band of snow will slowly sink SW towards the london area 

    possibly giving 1-3 cm ( not bad )

    around 6am before clearing 

    then from the word go snow showers coming of the sea and quite wide spread ( hit and miss but quite frequently)

    possible anything from 0- 5cm maybe more 

    then sunday maybe a front pushing up from france giving 1-5cm maybe more 

    RADAR watching starts tonight then :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    I still have light snow from 5 am tomorrow through till 3 am Sunday, just wondering how light, and if constant or showers. It doesn't look like shower symbols. Obviously I normal don't even bother looking at automated forecast, just trying to work out where we are going.

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    Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

    Amber warning just issued for some parts of the region. On phone so can’t post link

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    There you go! 

    Thames streamer is likely 

    Screenshot_20180316-102533.thumb.png.0c334cba53d2edd16ae49277b95e6720.png

    Im smack bang in the middle of that warning last time we saw this it went red but not expecting that this time 

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
    2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    There you go! 

    Thames streamer is likely 

    Screenshot_20180316-102533.thumb.png.0c334cba53d2edd16ae49277b95e6720.png

    Damn it! Just outside, probably be looking to my north and getting extremely jealous! haha!

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunder
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
    5 minutes ago, LeighD said:

    Amber warning just issued for some parts of the region. On phone so can’t post link

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-17&regionType=area

    Snow Radar app also looking very nice from 10am Sat to Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Very interesting from the Met office, allpublic models this morning have moved away from a streamer and towards the solution that the frontal zone never really clears south and instead re-energises from the E/SE across S.England. Better for a wider area for sure.

    Still, they will have their reasons for that warning, so keep watch.

    As for Sat-Sun, keep a VERY close eye on it, evolution is very dynamic, could be only 1-2cms and the wholeshifts to the west rapidly, equally the low could form earlier, in which case the whole of the south could get VERY snowy. Best case scenario could see widespread 20-30cms, more probable would be something like 1-2nd Dec 2010, (say 10-20cms fairly widely), most likely would be a slower forming low, with constant light-mod snow, probably 5-10cms.

    Very much early days still.

    Also,worth noting the HIRLAM isgoing for the extreme option, as it nailed 'emma', I feel it perhaps needs more weighting put onto it than I'd have previously given it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Can't believe we're looking at this on 16th March. Imagine if the first Easterly had been mid-Jan and this was hitting in early Feb. Would've been quite the winter!

    As it stands if I get 5-10 cms (still TBC obviously) that would be three snowfalls in that range in the space of three months. Not a bad return at all really.

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    So Met leaning towards   Thames streamer setting up , was on the fax yesterday but removed today , very much a fluid here and now , models not much use over 48 hr period all about radar and hires

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Woo in the amber not surprised in the slightest, this time I see areas south of London over north downs cropping the most sweet spot probably localised 15-20cm I’m calling. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 hours ago, Southender said:

    Convergence line removed from the Thames on latest fax which is a shame. But still plenty to look forward to this weekend.

    Yes that is a pity, that T72 fax chart yesterday was too good to be true.

    Also is the little feature in the channel thats moving up from France slightly further west this morning? If it shifts westward some parts of the east might miss out on the heavier snow.

     

    fax48s-1.gif

    fax60s-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Mixed emotions from me today- 

    Heres the Summary:

    Some people say its hard to forecast a streamer-

    Its not- Its a peice of cake just using the 500 charts & the windflow barbs- hence 36-48 hours ago the upper air cold pool was modelled to hit us direct with boat loads of convective snow fall-

    The difficult bit is actualy getting to the point where the modelling of said streamer actually lands!

    So in the last 24 hours the 'hit' from the upper air cold pool & lowest uppers has moved up towards lincs-

    That will put us in a slightly less favourable position for convection ( Sat into sun ) however what that does is throw higher uncertainty into the forecast because the models are still placing lots of PPN in the SE which are still associated with the upper low 

    However gone are the streamers - The favourable areas have perhaps moves away from North Kent / SE london - more towards West / East Sussex which is closer proximity to the low - 

    The 06z Hirlam does show the PPN clearing by Sunday morning-

    However because we seem to squeeze another full day of cold sunday now ( IKON 06Z 66-78 then the threat of more snow showers moves back in-

    So maybe not those original elevated todays we had first expected - moderated downwards to 2-10cm widespread- maybe a bit deeper in the more favourable spots

    with 24 hours to go theres still 50 or so miles scope for change but not enough to move the upper cold pool directly overhead again...

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Well the amber warning can suck my balls to be quite honest. Got polystyrene balls written all over it again for my zone eh @Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Amber warnings from Met Office issued for SE overnight Saturday Steve!

    Edit: Sorry, Southener got there just before me!

     

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay
  • Location: Herne Bay
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Mixed emotions from me today- 

    Heres the Summary:

    Some people say its hard to forecast a streamer-

    Its not- Its a peice of cake just using the 500 charts & the windflow barbs- hence 36-48 hours ago the upper air cold pool was modelled to hit us direct with boat loads of convective snow fall-

    The difficult bit is actualy getting to the point where the modelling of said streamer actually lands!

    So in the last 24 hours the 'hit' from the upper air cold pool & lowest uppers has moved up towards lincs-

    That will put us in a slightly less favourable position for convection ( Sat into sun ) however what that does is throw higher uncertainty into the forecast because the models are still placing lots of PPN in the SE which are still associated with the upper low 

    However gone are the streamers - The favourable areas have perhaps moves away from North Kent / SE london - more towards West / East Sussex which is closer proximity to the low - 

    The 06z Hirlam does show the PPN clearing by Sunday morning-

    However because we seem to squeeze another full day of cold sunday now ( IKON 06Z 66-78 then the threat of more snow showers moves back in-

    So maybe not those original elevated todays we had first expected - moderated downwards to 2-10cm widespread- maybe a bit deeper in the more favourable spots

    with 24 hours to go theres still 50 or so miles scope for change but not enough to move the upper cold pool directly overhead again...

    Gone are streamers so Metoffice warning jumping the gun? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes that is a pity, that T72 fax chart yesterday was too good to be true.

    Also is the little feature in the channel thats moving up from France slightly further west this morning? If it shifts westward some parts of the east might miss out on the heavier snow.

     

    fax48s-1.gif

    fax60s-1.gif

    The models have indeed moved it a little further west and this means the snowfall isn' tquite as heavy as it was on the globals. The ECM in patricular has REALLY toned it down with just a couple of cms overnight.

    HOWEVER this is a really dynamic situation, if the low starts developing even 3-6hrs earlier that could quite easily change snowfall totals by 5-10cms up. 

    My gut is the LOCATION is RIGHT...but the LP forms a little faster than currently progged, so something between the GFS and HIRLAM looks reasonable to me. HIRLAM is the big daddy solution, your 1ft solution so to speak! Unlikely, but huge impact if it came off.

    PS, this is December 2010, very similar but the low was a little further east:

    CFSR_1_2010120112_1.png                 CFSR_1_2010120200_1.png

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