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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

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51 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the UKMO need to admit they messed up.

There was clearly no convergence zone , that implies convection which I think puzzled a few in here yesterday .

Cloud associated with the frontal wave would stop convection. It was clear from the sat pics where the proper convection was and it was nowhere near the se.

Anyway on today still a chance of some snow running west out of the Continent more especially towards Channel facing coastal areas ,the fact that the Met Office haven’t said much is probably a good thing  ! 

Morning nick

Was it a case of the models got the southward movement of the cold front plus the apearance of the upper warm front which kept a constant cloud  cover which stope the convection down south leaving us in light to moderate only ppn?

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That band over Brussels could possibly be heading our way for early afternoon I suggest. 

Folkestone. 

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9 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just going to post up a couple of radar links. Firstly Meteox.

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Shows an area ppn., moving out of Germany, into Belgium, which could clip into our region, later.

Now the Dutch radar site.

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Which shows some areas of light "sneeuw", in the same areas, although dissipating could well reinvigorate , when it crosses the southern N.Sea/Channel.

Regards,

Tom.

Further, to the above and similar to what Yamkin, posted earlier. The HIRLAM model, on the whole has performed well, during these cold spells. Here's their prediction for, early evening. Something to keep an eye on.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=18&mode=1&map=400

Regards,

Tom.

 

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here in ramsgate although it snowed for quite a few hours yesterday, it did not amount to much (approx 1cm) , it was still nice to see and looking outside this morning although we were in the amber zone It doesn't look like we had anymore overnight and the grass is showing through in many places :hi:

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23 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just going to post up a couple of radar links. Firstly Meteox.

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Shows an area ppn., moving out of Germany, into Belgium, which could clip into our region, later.

Now the Dutch radar site.

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Which shows some areas of light "sneeuw", in the same areas, although dissipating could well reinvigorate , when it crosses the southern N.Sea/Channel.

Regards,

Tom.

This seems like a decent radar too:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/radar?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=frfr&CONT=frfr&BIG=0&LOOP=1&LTYP=std&ROAD=0&CITY=&L=0&SLP=0&W=0&LF=0&SUM=0

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Regarding snow potential for later today, like Tom & others have stated its worth keeping an eye on but keep expectations low, more often than not you'll then be rewarded.

It does have potential to catch a few of us out, so if travelling about today always be prepared.

I've stuck the goat (sorry coat) in the boot just in case 

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I think the UKMO need to admit they messed up.

There was clearly no convergence zone , that implies convection which I think puzzled a few in here yesterday .

Cloud associated with the frontal wave would stop convection. It was clear from the sat pics where the proper convection was and it was nowhere near the se.

Anyway on today still a chance of some snow running west out of the Continent more especially towards Channel facing coastal areas ,the fact that the Met Office haven’t said much is probably a good thing  ! 

Nick, I think you're one of the most informed posters on here, but posts like this wind me up. Why would the UKMO admit they messed up? Amber warning Lincolnshire and Yorkshire - they got that right. Amber for the SW - they're getting that right. The amber for London and SE was slightly out but only by 50 / 60 miles, hardly a huge fail on their part. Also, to state the obvious, a warning is merely a prediction, it doesn't guarantee snow. It's like some 'amateur forecasters' on here take pleasure in seeing the pros get it slightly wrong. Bizarre.

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1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Even more snow to come ? 

Maybe, though am not expecting much. I didn’t think there’d be much last night but am very impressed with the amount my area received. Could be a surprise or two yet?

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Just got up and it looks like all of that south stuff missed bromley after all - guess there’s an inch on the grass but that was from the morning - roll on this evening if we get some surprise snow

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2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

Nick, I think you're one of the most informed posters on here, but posts like this wind me up. Why would the UKMO admit they messed up? Amber warning Lincolnshire and Yorkshire - they got that right. Amber for the SW - they're getting that right. The amber for London and SE was slightly out but only by 50 / 60 miles, hardly a huge fail on their part. Also, to state the obvious, a warning is merely a prediction, it doesn't guarantee snow. It's like some 'amateur forecasters' on here take pleasure in seeing the pros get it slightly wrong. Bizarre.

I'm in the amber zone and it snowed for hours and often fairly heavily so I'm not sure they did get it wrong. We have a good covering on grass and most surfaces but it looks much less because the ground temps were so high. Can't recall seeing snow melt in sub zero temps in the way it did yesterday evening! Especially as it was below zero for most of daylight hours.

Ironically if it were to snow today I reckon it would stick more readily. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

Nick, I think you're one of the most informed posters on here, but posts like this wind me up. Why would the UKMO admit they messed up? Amber warning Lincolnshire and Yorkshire - they got that right. Amber for the SW - they're getting that right. The amber for London and SE was slightly out but only by 50 / 60 miles, hardly a huge fail on their part. Also, to state the obvious, a warning is merely a prediction, it doesn't guarantee snow. It's like some 'amateur forecasters' on here take pleasure in seeing the pros get it slightly wrong. Bizarre.

Why - because they have messed up massively . They are presumably responsible for the warnings leading to about a 100 cancelled flights from Heathrow for no reason!. I'm sure the holidaymakers are in Nicks court here. I'd be fuming.  60 miles out at 12 hours notice is pathetic and woeful. 

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13 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

Have I got the track right? 

Screenshot_20180318-100018__01.jpg

I think so. It’s the blob below I’m watching..

77DC4C54-8FA5-40AA-AF1F-5D93E764F16E.jpeg

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Very Poor performance from the models regarding snowfall amounts and the met office,places in the Amber  warning never received anything like the snow amounts mentioned..

All the millions spent with our money to

Very disappointing amounts here and the last Easterly.

probably be waiting 20 years for the next beast from the east again:gathering:

im booking a ride on the trans Siberian express 

 

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Lottie, keep an eye on that light "sneeuw/neige", about to leave the Belgian coast.

Regards,

Tom.

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Just to remind people here is yesterdays forecast. If you think they got that right then you must be a top spin doctor 

IMG_9252.png

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1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:

Lottie, keep an eye on that light "sneeuw/neige", about to leave the Belgian coast.

Regards,

Tom.

Dover-Folkestone coast's name on it? 

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1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

Why - because they have messed up massively . They are presumably responsible for the warnings leading to about a 100 cancelled flights from Heathrow for no reason!. I'm sure the holidaymakers are in Nicks court here. I'd be fuming.  60 miles out at 12 hours notice is pathetic and woeful. 

They did not mess up massively. As I said, two of the three amber warning areas were absolutely spot on, and the other was only slightly out. Furthermore, the HIRLAM model (which for some reason everyone seems to be praising) was showing 10cms+ around the Thames estuary and across London - look how wrong that turned out. 

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11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I'm in the amber zone and it snowed for hours and often fairly heavily so I'm not sure they did get it wrong. We have a good covering on grass and most surfaces but it looks much less because the ground temps were so high. Can't recall seeing snow melt in sub zero temps in the way it did yesterday evening! Especially as it was below zero for most of daylight hours.

Ironically if it were to snow today I reckon it would stick more readily. 

 

Delete

Edited by mulzy

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Just now, Big Snow said:

They did not mess up massively. As I said, two of the three amber warning areas were absolutely spot on, and the other was only slightly out. Furthermore, the HIRLAM model (which for some reason everyone seems to be praising) was showing 10cms+ around the Thames estuary and across London - look how wrong that turned out. 

I'm talking about the South East warning not Lincolnshire. i.e the 1 out of 3 mess up !

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3 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Just to remind people here is yesterdays forecast. If you think they got that right then you must be a top spin doctor 

IMG_9252.png

I'm not saying the got it right. Clearly, that's out by a distance. My point is that, considering that's the only part of their warning which went awry, I think it's fair to cut them some slack. 

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Just now, Big Snow said:

I'm not saying the got it right. Clearly, that's out by a distance. My point is that, considering that's the only part of their warning which went awry, I think it's fair to cut them some slack. 

Not if you live where I do :rofl:

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9 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Why - because they have messed up massively . They are presumably responsible for the warnings leading to about a 100 cancelled flights from Heathrow for no reason!. I'm sure the holidaymakers are in Nicks court here. I'd be fuming.  60 miles out at 12 hours notice is pathetic and woeful. 

No - they got the SE warning completely wrong.  Look at the geographical spread of the warning area - it mirrors streamer like activity. There was no steamer and they got a bit lucky in the western part of the warning area due to the wave disturbance from the south.  All in all, they (and a lot of the NWP) were wrong.

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Latest forecast here is 'turning dry in many places with some brightness by the afternoon ' expect that area of snow over Belgium to hit us this afternoon!

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