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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

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22 minutes ago, scrat said:

I thought there would be more people on here?!  For once, I'm hoping for no snow (never thought I would say that), well at least not enough snow to cause travel disruptions as taking my girls to Disney World Monday morning! It's about time for some warmth and sunshine....roll on next winter :-) 

I'm going to a football 6-aside tournament w/ my school, so I hope the snow falls during the weekend, and eases Monday Morning, so I can get there without any issues. (It's in Burgess Hill). I'm really looking forward to it! 

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The window is shorter than last time. Cover tended to even itself out over four or five days back then. This will be two days max. Plenty will be disappointed but the lucky ones will be really chuffed with the amounts they get! 

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Looking like the same areas as last time will do best, north and west Kent and down into Sussex? Still, whoever gets snow this weekend, certainly a memorable month!

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The window is shorter than last time. Cover tended to even itself out over four or five days back then. This will be two days max. Plenty will be disappointed but the lucky ones will be really chuffed with the amounts they get! 

I don’t know whether plenty will be disappointed the synoptic on Sunday looks pretty darn good to deliver quite widely in our region looks very good convectively. 

9586EB47-AA0B-44DE-BD91-D4FCAD63BE4D.thumb.png.ad4335dba0892797fcf23155973a06d1.png

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We did unexpectedly well here during the last event, but I’m not expecting too much snow here in east Berkshire this weekend. 

Edited by CK1981

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Well I might be being greedy but does anyone know how sheppey/North kent will do this time we got about 5 inches here the last time a lot more than i thought we was going to get so this is a extra bonus. :D

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I think best idea would beto just take this as a bonus, regardless of what we get. Locally we could quite easily see 6-9 inches in favoured spots,if anything forms from the upper low crossing near/over us, then obviously those totals will become much more widespread in nature. 

The fact we are talking about another potent easterly in mid-march is somewhat mind-blowing to me though it has to be said!

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24 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I think it might start out more NE but veer more E bringimg London into play. That’s the beauty and the frustration of this set up. Fingers crossed 🤞 

GFS 18z also showing a big gap between Kent and the Wash streamer, there always seems to be too much of a NEly element in the upper winds of these easterlies. Anyway I think that snowfall will be a lot more widespread, more like the ICON.

90-574UK.gif

96-574UK.gif

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What I have been amazed about is that this set-up is not rare at all, and I really thought it would be for the time of year. Have found at least 5 matches to the synoptic charts on offer and even one for March 29th 1952 when 30cm fell in the South East with 6ft Drifts in places.

The Famous 1952 Oxford v Cambridge Boat race was completed in a full on blizzard.

 

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In all fairness though Paul that was a classic channel low typeset-up, this one is more in the classic mould. More typical easterly than the Late Feb/Early March we had which had almost a double blow to it. 

As I've said, watch for little lows to form close to the upper low once it reaches its western limits, somewhat close perhaps with Early December 2010?

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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The window is shorter than last time. Cover tended to even itself out over four or five days back then. This will be two days max. Plenty will be disappointed but the lucky ones will be really chuffed with the amounts they get! 

Yes a post full of wisdom that, things did indeed even out over the 4/5 days last time, this is going to be 2 days, maybe 3 days max so more of a shorter sharp shock. I'm thinking very much in line with Feb 09. 

Must say its the more organised band of heavy snow in Kent on Sunday that I will be keeping my eye on, may get a far as London if we are lucky.:rolleyes:

Edited by snowray

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Some places will hit the Jackpot, dont doubt it but not expecting this to hang around too long. The suns strength today was something else with those 14c temps in London, my rule of thumb for decent spells are 5-6 days of dry easterlies before the event first cooling things off to even give the snow a chance to settle, going into it with temps so warm over the last few days and then a rapid drop off never bodes too well. Even with 1-2 hours of sun with intermittant cloud is going to have a massive effect on this, the only way snow can last is if a decent amount falls and then winds whip it into drifts.

Still amazing to see another shot at winters last throws though

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I'm really looking forward to this as it is hitting at the weekend for once, where i am in haywards heath does not do well in snow, only had 3cm last time round.

as it is the weekend when snow is due i will be able to take the kids out in the 4x4 hilux and go to find the snow with our sledges in the back :)

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30 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

We did unexpectedly well here during the last event, but I’m not expecting too much snow here in east Berkshire this weekend. 

You said that last time too though, and you did ok in the end. Good omen?:laugh:

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32 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

What I have been amazed about is that this set-up is not rare at all, and I really thought it would be for the time of year. Have found at least 5 matches to the synoptic charts on offer and even one for March 29th 1952 when 30cm fell in the South East with 6ft Drifts in places.

The Famous 1952 Oxford v Cambridge Boat race was completed in a full on blizzard.

 

What an incredible video, and piece of history there, thanks for posting that Paul.:)

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i just watched the bbc weather, two day cold slap then back to 12c by tuesday:cc_confused: i won't even have 1cm to brag about come sunday:cc_confused:

Edited by lassie23

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23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i just watched the bbc weather, two day cold slap then back to 12c by tuesday:cc_confused: i won't even have 1cm to brag about come sunday:cc_confused:

Well I know its only little but I should hope that you get to keep your 1cm for a little longer Lass. 

If I was you I would get the bucket out, the goat and the sausage and do your old voodoo magic!:laugh: 

 

71zmZ3J0I5L._AC_SL1024_.jpg

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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t know whether plenty will be disappointed the synoptic on Sunday looks pretty darn good to deliver quite widely in our region looks very good convectively. 

9586EB47-AA0B-44DE-BD91-D4FCAD63BE4D.thumb.png.ad4335dba0892797fcf23155973a06d1.png

Seems to me in the sort term (next 4 days esp Sunday into Monday looks pretty dam perfect for East anglia and the southeast and at this stage I don't buy that high shifting southwest as quickly on Monday like the models are suggesting, so I predict this coming event extending a bit in the coming 48 hour runs ,just look at the latest fax chart from Sunday to Monday and how the high shrinks so quickly, maybe over Greenland not over Scandinavia 

As for beyond Tuesday again I don't buy what the main models are showing, just watch them change by Saturday for the good

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9 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Some places will hit the Jackpot, dont doubt it but not expecting this to hang around too long. The suns strength today was something else with those 14c temps in London, my rule of thumb for decent spells are 5-6 days of dry easterlies before the event first cooling things off to even give the snow a chance to settle, going into it with temps so warm over the last few days and then a rapid drop off never bodes too well. Even with 1-2 hours of sun with intermittant cloud is going to have a massive effect on this, the only way snow can last is if a decent amount falls and then winds whip it into drifts.

Still amazing to see another shot at winters last throws though

We had laying snow for around a week late March 2013. Cloud cover was the key then. 

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 It looks like the 850 temps are less intense this morning and the Arpege is showing sleet for the SE now instead of snow for Saturday..

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7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

 It looks like the 850 temps are less intense this morning and the Arpege is showing sleet for the SE now instead of snow for Saturday..

Having watched the aperge in the run up to the last easterly it was woeful-

Its 00z run is at the extreme Northern end of the envelope - 

This is the ECM mean @72 - perfect for pretty much everyone bar central scotland..

A365B8A7-9947-458D-90F7-075C4A2886EE.thumb.png.86c04eed65f61a3cc0fc4369b2ba8222.png

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Having watched the aperge in the run up to the last easterly it was woeful-

Its 00z run is at the extreme Northern end of the envelope - 

This is the ECM mean @72 - perfect for pretty much everyone bar central scotland..

A365B8A7-9947-458D-90F7-075C4A2886EE.thumb.png.86c04eed65f61a3cc0fc4369b2ba8222.png

Ok, that's good.. It does look better later on though for prolonging the cold, so I'm hoping it's right in that aspect.

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8 hours ago, snowray said:

Well I know its only little but I should hope that you get to keep your 1cm for a little longer Lass. 

If I was you I would get the bucket out, the goat and the sausage and do your old voodoo magic!:laugh: 

 

71zmZ3J0I5L._AC_SL1024_.jpg

goat simulator:shok: damp and miserable this morning, so is the weather:blink2:

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13 hours ago, E17boy said:

Just had a quick peep I don't think it's the possibilities of snow falling that has shifted north.

A few of the models today push the actual high pressure further north, which maybe might extend the cold spell, as before that high was predicted to move South lot faster and shunt the coldest of the air out. 

So snow wise nothing has shifted north it's only the length of the cold spell that could possibly change. 

Regards 😊😊

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense to me now

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Cold Weather Alert level 3

image.thumb.png.4f98f1764208cb52b4136ad656e68c29.png

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