Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

Recommended Posts

For me in Sunbury, this has to go down as a remarkable weekend considering the time of year. Yes, admittedly we are not buried  in snow but it’s the biggest fall of snow I can remember here for a March day. The snow last night was impressive especially as it ended up coming from the south and not the east.

What’s more, I was impressed how it barely melted today. There was then the surprise of a further six hours of snow tonight which has covered everything white again and filled in footprints. 

The first beast wasn’t terrible by any means but this ones been quite something for 18th and 19th March.

Well done winter 2018 and thanks to everyone in here for their informative posts, great forum!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  

 minutes ago, James Gold said:

That looks about it - radar not looking too exciting anymore

Yes fellow, Bromleyite,

Streamer hasn't materialised, so perhaps kudos finally, to the METO. Didn't realise the 850s, were only -8c, that only gives a temp differential, between upper air and sea/estuary surface, of around 14c, you need around 20c, to see lake-affect, type convection, a la Jan 1987 and Feb 2009.

A temperature difference of 13 °C (23 °F) (or as past researchers have estimated: between 15 °C and 25 °C) between the lake temperature and the height in the atmosphere (~1,500 meters or 4,921 feet at which barometric pressure measures 850 millibars (85 kilopascals)) provides for absolute instability and allows vigorous heat and moisture transportation vertically. Atmospheric lapse rate and convective depth are directly affected by both the mesoscale lake environment and the synoptic environment; a deeper convective depth with increasingly steep lapse rates and a suitable moisture level will allow for thicker, taller lake effect precipitation clouds and naturally a much greater precipitation rate.[

Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent.

Have a builder, coming early tomorrow morning. to start adapting bathroom, to a wet room and move toilet and sink around, to utilise, lack of space, more and make it easier, for this old f..t, to shower and shave, more safely. Will take around 2 weeks. So will have to use commode  ( Sorry TMI ) downstairs again, just as I did, in Feb , after coming out of hospital, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke.

So going to retire to bed now. Watch it start snowing now, just as it did last night and this afternoon, when I went to bed!!

Must say, it's been a hoot and a great end to Winter and the snow season.

Night all.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is my two penneth on the mini beast which has bitten. Firstly for me this has been spectacular. I am utterly amazed at the strength of the easterly. At times it felt as cold as the first one. 

To go from 15 degrees to 0 is something that really hasnt been spoken about since the 60's. The snow was great and on top of the table to read 4cm here in welling gob smacking for this late in the season. I wander where we go from here and this is a question i will pose in the mod thread later this week after 2 ssw does the climate automatically revert then to typical fair?

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, John Ronane said:

you are just looking for excuses. we have had snow from a northerly before in April. its very rare,but so is an easterly twice in March.Now get that damn bra on your head and starting doing the funky chicken dance aka snow dance  hehe. there is a guide online on how to do it. 

dance done, bra still on head, , bucket shiny, prepare for more snow:rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, John Ronane said:

Do you think we will get any snow out of the northerly at Easter?. i know we are in the least favoured position for a northerly,but if it was potent enough would the showers, if they got here, be of snow?

Well there are no guarantees of a northerly at Easter, even though GFS has been persistently showing one around or just before the Easter Weekend, if it does come off, then it may not be cold enough for snow. Though we have seen potent northerlies in the past bring snow to the SE in early April, an example was 6th April 2008 saw 5-10cm across the SE from snow that swept south in a cold northerly:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2008/april

D4A0A7F1-93B6-4A67-8C79-1D19AA8B81F1.thumb.gif.e975283cca6b16eadb076da9300fe55d.gif

so it’s certainly possible ...

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snowed from 4.30pm until 7.30pm then a gap before another burst until 9.30pm. Did start to cover the roads again. Amounted to about 2cm to add to the 5cm from yesterday. Quite a bonus watching the band of snow develop as it moved west from the Kent and S. Essex coast. Max temperature in Hemel Hempstead (149m) today was - 1.5 C!!. Might yet be a little more to come looking at the radar towards the east.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

To add to that ^ in the Rockies we used to get a cold front dropping temps 15/20oC in hours. This weekend reminded me of that. Quite remarkable for any month but mid March. And to get two ice days. Amazing. And there’s talk that Easter could produce some cold snowy weather. If this is because of SSW then I hope there’s a repeat next winter in january. That’d be scary! Thanks for your input everyone. It’s been a great end to the season. I hope we’re back in a few weeks saying ‘I’ve got an inch on my bin lid’ oo er missus lol. Take care of yourselves and see you next winter (or Easter 😜) 

Edited by c00ps
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Bob Lee said:

So much for at 1500 the SE Will get pasted. Light flakes here in North Kent if I learnt anything it's never trust anyone on line who promises they have all the answers. Want Spring now 

The PPN starts off light as it moves inland from the east, then gets heavier and heavier the other side of London as it moves west, strange but true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still snowing here, nearly 5 hours of snowfall of varying intensity that has topped up 2cm of fresh accumulation. That was a very nice surprise and to get an ice day in addition on 18 March is pretty awesome. More snow here than the proper beast from the east a couple of weeks ago and this is the third instance of accumulating snow since 10 December. Quite impressive!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well there are no guarantees of a northerly at Easter, even though GFS has been persistently showing one around or just before the Easter Weekend, if it does come off, then it may not be cold enough for snow. Though we have seen potent northerlies in the past bring snow to the SE in early April, an example was 6th April 2008 saw 5-10cm across the SE from snow that swept south in a cold northerly:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2008/april

D4A0A7F1-93B6-4A67-8C79-1D19AA8B81F1.thumb.gif.e975283cca6b16eadb076da9300fe55d.gif

so it’s certainly possible ...

I remember it well! I was heavily pregnant waddling in the snow and exactly a month later my waters broke when it was baking hot day and stayed that way!x

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

  

Yes fellow, Bromleyite,

Streamer hasn't materialised, so perhaps kudos finally, to the METO. Didn't realise the 850s, were only -8c, that only gives a temp differential, between upper air and sea/estuary surface, of around 14c, you need around 20c, to see lake-affect, type convection, a la Jan 1987 and Feb 2009.

A temperature difference of 13 °C (23 °F) (or as past researchers have estimated: between 15 °C and 25 °C) between the lake temperature and the height in the atmosphere (~1,500 meters or 4,921 feet at which barometric pressure measures 850 millibars (85 kilopascals)) provides for absolute instability and allows vigorous heat and moisture transportation vertically. Atmospheric lapse rate and convective depth are directly affected by both the mesoscale lake environment and the synoptic environment; a deeper convective depth with increasingly steep lapse rates and a suitable moisture level will allow for thicker, taller lake effect precipitation clouds and naturally a much greater precipitation rate.[

Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent.

Have a builder, coming early tomorrow morning. to start adapting bathroom, to a wet room and move toilet and sink around, to utilise, lack of space, more and make it easier, for this old f..t, to shower and shave, more safely. Will take around 2 weeks. So will have to use commode  ( Sorry TMI ) downstairs again, just as I did, in Feb , after coming out of hospital, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke.

So going to retire to bed now. Watch it start snowing now, just as it did last night and this afternoon, when I went to bed!!

Must say, it's been a hoot and a great end to Winter and the snow season.

Night all.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

It’s interesting overnight into morning things are more favourable for convection charts below 0700. Some deeper cold to work with and winds more ENE estuary can still do its thing. Goodnight T. :) 

D772BAF6-F693-49CE-B694-4D4612B0D025.thumb.gif.910c96b4fb2156483e69b63a98c11481.gif91E43498-6509-4645-9663-5D25560E72A8.thumb.gif.673bae5c6c3ef83f3038c40f89c5edc1.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least another couple of cm here in Reading. I cleared the car of snow earlier and it's completely covered again. Lovely walk with the dog in probably the last falling and settling snow for the season.

IMG_20180318_215705.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Here is my two penneth on the mini beast which has bitten. Firstly for me this has been spectacular. I am utterly amazed at the strength of the easterly. At times it felt as cold as the first one. 

To go from 15 degrees to 0 is something that really hasnt been spoken about since the 60's. The snow was great and on top of the table to read 4cm here in welling gob smacking for this late in the season. I wander where we go from here and this is a question i will pose in the mod thread later this week after 2 ssw does the climate automatically revert then to typical fair?

Indeed the temperature drop was somewhat remarkable for our shores! Such changes happen frequently in the US but for us I can't remember a drop in the last 30yrs from 14c on friday to 0c on Saturday with snow basically all day long.

It may have happened of course but if i did I can't recall it :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Had an additional 2cm since late afternoon. Its all but stopped now, although further flurries over the next couple of hours seem likely. Total on the top of the bin is 6cm. Paths and road are covered, however  a slow thaw is evident (ground temp as opposed to air). Shouldn't be much of a thaw elsewhere until tomorrow, although i suspect out of the sun snow will stick around until Tuesday. 

29339877_2022324178022422_8119467585247903744_o.jpg

Edited by Mark Bayley
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

I remember it well! I was heavily pregnant waddling in the snow and exactly a month later my waters broke when it was baking hot day and stayed that way!x

I was living in Tunbridge Wells at the time and recorded 8cm from the snowfall that moved south on the 6th, don’t recall so much snow so late in Spring and I imagine there are some hoping but also not hoping something similar may occur this year, certainly better chance than normal of snow again next few weeks, as the SSW effects on the troposphere pattern tend to last a few months!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been an additional 2.5cm since 6.30 and it still coming down very lightly. Second ice day in a row with a maximum of -0.5 today. Fell to -2.5 at 8pm but has risen slightly since then. A total of about 12cm in this cold spell so far. March 2013 was colder but whatever happens between now and the end of the month, March 2018 will go down as the best ever for me. Much more snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

  

Yes fellow, Bromleyite,

Streamer hasn't materialised, so perhaps kudos finally, to the METO. Didn't realise the 850s, were only -8c, that only gives a temp differential, between upper air and sea/estuary surface, of around 14c, you need around 20c, to see lake-affect, type convection, a la Jan 1987 and Feb 2009.

A temperature difference of 13 °C (23 °F) (or as past researchers have estimated: between 15 °C and 25 °C) between the lake temperature and the height in the atmosphere (~1,500 meters or 4,921 feet at which barometric pressure measures 850 millibars (85 kilopascals)) provides for absolute instability and allows vigorous heat and moisture transportation vertically. Atmospheric lapse rate and convective depth are directly affected by both the mesoscale lake environment and the synoptic environment; a deeper convective depth with increasingly steep lapse rates and a suitable moisture level will allow for thicker, taller lake effect precipitation clouds and naturally a much greater precipitation rate.[

Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent.

Have a builder, coming early tomorrow morning. to start adapting bathroom, to a wet room and move toilet and sink around, to utilise, lack of space, more and make it easier, for this old f..t, to shower and shave, more safely. Will take around 2 weeks. So will have to use commode  ( Sorry TMI ) downstairs again, just as I did, in Feb , after coming out of hospital, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke.

So going to retire to bed now. Watch it start snowing now, just as it did last night and this afternoon, when I went to bed!!

Must say, it's been a hoot and a great end to Winter and the snow season.

Night all.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Best wishes Tom.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well there are no guarantees of a northerly at Easter, even though GFS has been persistently showing one around or just before the Easter Weekend, if it does come off, then it may not be cold enough for snow. Though we have seen potent northerlies in the past bring snow to the SE in early April, an example was 6th April 2008 saw 5-10cm across the SE from snow that swept south in a cold northerly:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2008/april

D4A0A7F1-93B6-4A67-8C79-1D19AA8B81F1.thumb.gif.e975283cca6b16eadb076da9300fe55d.gif

so it’s certainly possible ...

Remember that well

Thick snow covering Eastbourne beach in April!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ENE now in Thames Estuary can a sudden miracle happen? I have my doubts we’ll see.

86BD06B6-EBF6-4549-9B43-6123A80D3A56.thumb.png.66c7396db1b2ddad9b46cb1ddd5e6b0d.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The temp has gradually risen here in Locksbottom since 8.30pm(-0.4) and now upto 0.4.The light flurries stopped about 9pm here and although there could be a few more during the night this is the beginning of the end of this cold snap.I know it was only 2 days(although tomorrow will be very cold) so call it 3 but i still can't believe it was nearly 14 on Friday and Springlike and yet about 15hrs later it was down to 1 degree and starting to snow!!-That is a very rare event having such a massive temperature differential in the UK like that and will stay in my memory for a long time.

I would like to thank everyone on this forum for helping me learn,give me a few laughs ,show me the magical scenes snow makes in the form of all the pictures sent in and to also make me realise that although that we all love the snow and all that it brings,sometimes there are more important things in life if you know what i mean.

Anyway,it is still possible we could all be here again in late March if GFS is to be believed and although a long shot for the South at least it is still possible to get snow lying for a day or two in late March/early April.

Thanks again guys and girls and if we dont all meet again later this month here is hoping to an early start to winter 2018/19 say late November.I am hoping that this winter has bucked the trend of last 4 winters that have been mild and could be the start of a trend of colder than average winters(and snowier!!)

Cheers and Bonsoir

:friends:

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say - it’s doing that thing that happened last time - forecast says it’ll die off and over time it’s doing just that.

Remember last time with Beast pt 1 - the big blob moving up from France over the channel - kept petering out at it hit the south coast uk? Well I think there’s something at play - maybe dry air - that’s creating a ‘block’ and killing off all the ppn we’re seeing drifting in from the east.

I sincerely hope not - but some realism has to be accepted - this isn’t anything more than gentle showers now for the SE...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Final one from me for this evening.

It’s been an awesome few weeks, ever since the build up to Beast 1 started in mid Feb. I say that even though IMBY snow totals were less than I hoped. Best thing was marginality never became an issue for any of us, which considering where we are and the time of year is incredible.

Thanks everyone for the “weather stuff” and, more importantly, the laughs.

See you in November for next winters snow hunt, unless, of course, Beast No 3 puts in an appearance for Easter!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the charts and trend, I’ll be back again in 2 weeks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×