SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

[snowspotter]

1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

I'm with you on this one. Models were pointing to a set up that would deliver. They had to go with what the models were telling them. An upper warm front certainly preventing things from panning out as forecast but I don't recall any models showing that in the lead up.

To the west of London, the amber warning was closer to the mark and Heathrow flights would have been cancelled in advance. Far better for airlines to plan ahead rather than have their operations in a total mess and taking days to recover.

These setups are notoriously hard to forecast; maybe amber warning should have been cancelled earlier to the east, but really all preparations were in place well ahead so it would have made little difference.

I don't get this cancel flights in advance bit . surely they plan with de-icer . Flights would never leave Scandinavia and most of central europe all winter! .Just a case of de-icing surely? 

 

Just now, WhiteFox said:

The models got it wrong, not the individual forecasters! It's a little like blaming the models when an easterly fails; sometimes the weather catches us all out!

Maybe its just me but surely a massive met office can get something within 12 hours correct? Anyway they never take down warnings when its clearly obvious they are not going to happen so that needs to change

[Katrine Basso]

Last night it seemed to be snowing heavier in the front garden facing the street than in my back garden. Later on in the night the snow stopped falling in my back garden but was continuing in the front garden. This morning I found that I have snow in my front garden than my back garden.

[WhiteFox]

1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

I don't get this cancel flights in advance bit . surely they plan with de-icer . Flights would never leave Scandinavia and most of central europe all winter! .Just a case of de-icing surely? 

 

Maybe its just me but surely a massive met office can get something within 12 hours correct? Anyway they never take down warnings when its clearly obvious they are not going to happen so that needs to change

Heathrow operates at capacity. De-icing planes takes time and delays departures, especially as I suspect they do not have a large amount of equipment! This isn't Scandinavia where snow is common and the airports are much quieter. Airlines much prefer to combine flights where possible so they can have planes in the right place rather than having to catch up operations over a few days.

 

For the warnings, yes, they probably should cancel it earlier, but did anyone on here state that a streamer was not going to form 12 hours ahead? I mean the experienced forecasters in here rather than people who are simply impatient for snow. I've read most of this thread and all were still going for the streamer right up to yesterday evening. Steve M was first to call a fail and that was around 7pm or so I think. 

You can only go with what the models show and they all failed with their forecasts for the SE.

[Laurence Hill]

Yellow warning issued for today 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Katrine Basso said:

Last night it seemed to be snowing heavier in the front garden facing the street than in my back garden. Later on in the night the snow stopped falling in my back garden but was continuing in the front garden. This morning I found that I have snow in my front garden than my back garden.

Perhaps some snow has blown off your roof into your front garden ??

[James Oliver]

Snow moving off the continent into the he channel is moving quite quickly so I'm assuming won't be much more than a dusting 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

Yellow warning issued for today 

For ice in se england 

[Tom Quintavalle]

" Neige Forte", reported at Croix,on the French/Belgian  border, by someone called Tom59 weather, not me honest!! Heading west, towards the south of our region, hope it holds together.

http://www.meteociel.fr/

Regards,

Tom.

[Southender]

16 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Why - because they have messed up massively . They are presumably responsible for the warnings leading to about a 100 cancelled flights from Heathrow for no reason!. I'm sure the holidaymakers are in Nicks court here. I'd be fuming.  60 miles out at 12 hours notice is pathetic and woeful. 

Agree.

As an aside to that, what pee’d me off was the amber warning for Kent/Essex/London etc was based on what blatantly they thought would be a Thames Streamer. The graphics and text clearly hinted at that. What in fact we got in those regions was a sheet of cloud dropping snizzle/light snow for most, with almost zero convection. If it wasn’t for the morning snow of circa 1-3cm, most in the amber warning zone would of had next to nothing. 

Anyhow, we got about 2.5cm in Southend overall so within the expected accumulation zone the METO suggested. But as mentioned 90% of that came early Saturday morning, when in fact the amber warning was not active!

[snowspotter]

Just now, bluearmy said:

For ice in se england 

Blizzards imminent them . Keep eyes peeled on that precipitation over channel. Anyway enjoy what you have outside today.

[Katrine Basso]

I live in a council maisonette flat with and do not get snow falling from the roof due as it is not insulated.  I have very sensitive hearing and would have easily heard snow blow off the roof.  It looked like it was snow heavier in the front garden and lighter in the back garden.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

Blizzards imminent them . Keep eyes peeled on that precipitation over channel. Anyway enjoy what you have outside today.

Yeah - seen it and it needs watching though Exeter don’t think it will make it here 

lots of sublimation here overnight, especially with the wind strength - about 5/6 cms max flat on the grass 

[WhiteFox]

*adopts a Columbo tone* Oh, and one final thing. The met office will have access to far more information than us and undoubtedly some of their ensemble runs will have shown the fail. Buy, they will have based the warning on the balance of probability which will have a threshold. For example, if 60% of the runs showed the streamer they issue the warning. Nothing is set in stone just because of a warning. NWP is all about probability.

Edited March 18, 2018 by WhiteFox

[SMU]

Winters last hurrah today- thin band of snow just exiting france heading WNW

[Kent Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Yellow warning issued for today 

Yellow warning for mud, so when the dusting melts sledges will become stuck halfway downhills 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I live in a council maisonette flat with and do not get snow falling from the roof due as it is not insulated.  I have very sensitive hearing and would have easily heard snow blow off the roof.  It looked like it was snow heavier in the front garden and lighter in the back garden.

Ok - trees ???

[snowblizzard]

7 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

Snow moving off the continent into the he channel is moving quite quickly so I'm assuming won't be much more than a dusting 

Fizzling out!

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

Last night it seemed to be snowing heavier in the front garden facing the street than in my back garden. Later on in the night the snow stopped falling in my back garden but was continuing in the front garden. This morning I found that I have snow in my front garden than my back garden.

Maybe one side is less exposed to the sun or wind ?

[snowblizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Winters last hurrah today- thin band of snow just exiting france heading WNW

White Easter!!?

[WhiteFox]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ok - trees ???

Surely the leeward side of the house? I have a couple of cm more at the front than at the back. Snow oiled up against the garage door as it was blowing almost horizontally at times.

[sunnijim]

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

" Neige Forte", reported at Croix,on the French/Belgian  border, by someone called Tom59 weather, not me honest!! Heading west, towards the south of our region, hope it holds together.

http://www.meteociel.fr/

Regards,

Tom.

Yes,the GFS and met office are calling for some snow over the snow starved parts of Sussex (especially toward the South coast) after 5pm until midnight.

Last chance saloon for snowfall in the South.

The updated fax chart for midnight Monday clearly shows the cold front responible running East to West across Sussex

[yamkin]

#SnowCover #shirley #croydon #GreaterLondon #BeastFromTheEast2 #uksnow

[WhiteFox]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Winters last hurrah today- thin band of snow just exiting france heading WNW

Who knows this year? We all signed off two weeks ago!

[Southender]

Anyway, March has been great overall here in Southend. Mustn’t complain. 6” and a couple of dustings, icles, big drifts, ice days the lot. We have been spoilt compared to the last 6 years! But snow is like a drug to us coldies, we always want more. But taking a step back and reflecting  it has been brilliant here. Roll on next winter and beyond as we approach solar minimum, perhaps more exciting winters to come over the next few years...

[SMU]

6cm here in the end - A fair depth I guess but it could have been so much more if the cold pool had arrived...

Snow angel trashing my garden today