SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

[Bricriu]

I just woke up from a great dream!- I dreamt London was going to get a second easterly in a matter of weeks this weekend.

 

 

 

I cant wait to walk in the snow on Saturday evening after Ireland have won the Grand Slam.  Well, i think England will beat Ireland , but i'll still be happy in the snow

Edited March 16, 2018 by Bricriu

[SMU]

I will be in here for sat eve

looking very snowy!!

[shaky]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

I will be in here for sat eve

looking very snowy!!

Luky for you guys steve!!midlands might be in the dry zone!!enjoy it though!!!hopefully it pushes further north like the icon and we both get the snowfall lol!!

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

I will be in here for sat eve

looking very snowy!!

Great.

Will give me an excuse not to have to go through the torture of watching Ant and Dec with the Mrs! 

[Southender]

Convergence line removed from the Thames on latest fax which is a shame. But still plenty to look forward to this weekend.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Southender said:

Convergence line removed from the Thames on latest fax which is a shame. But still plenty to look forward to this weekend.

Whilst the low pressure systems moving se into France are changing their orientation, run to run, so will the subtle direction of the flow from the east and these convergence zones will come and go. this mornings runs from some models are less enthusiastic re sat night snow in the se but that could change next run. the pattern and consequential snowfall distribution is not dependant on one specific like the cold pool. 

[Jimmyh]

Morning all. Just fell out of bed with the forecast from met office for welling snow pretty much all day saturday. However here is what made me sitty up and take notice. The double snow flakes are here from 6pm through to midnight and then keeps shiwing snow till 6 am impressive

[snowblizzard]

BBC seem less enthusiastic about snow in SE this weekend!

Edited March 16, 2018 by snowblizzard

[SMU]

reduced totals in the SE on 'some' models due to to many northward corrections ( circa 150 miles )

[snowspotter]

I see that comments are all over the place on snow potential for the South East .  All a bit of a yawn really isn't it?  I even see a comment that a beast from the east will deliver to the west i.e Devon Somerset but actually miss the south east out. How the heck does that work. Bearing in mind I got  sod all here last time I will not be impressed if the models can't even get a grip with 36 hours to go. How can they suddenly shift north at such a short timescale unless they are(lets face it we know ) pretty sodding useless at detai

edited as loads of weird characters appeared presumably a filter for swearing (pretty tame to be honest) odd

Edited March 16, 2018 by snowspotter

[Matty J]

38 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC seem less enthusiastic about snow in SE this weekend!

This is what I don't really get. Avery again last night on the 21:55 forcast showed EA/SE Cloudy with no snow and yet had a persistent shower train of snow coming in around the Hull area and pushing westward. 

The rest of the uk showed nothing at all. Then Sundays event he had Ireland covered in snow, some in the SW and nothing everywhere else.

Either the man is an idiot and can't read charts so something is going on that everyone else is missing?

I'd still rather put my faith in Steve M etc but with a day to go surely the BBC's forecasts would be matching our guys on here!

[Laurence Hill]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

reduced totals in the SE on 'some' models due to to many northward corrections ( circa 150 miles )

Are you being less enthusiastic Steve?

[southbank]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I will be in here for sat eve

looking very snowy!!

yesterday Fax for sunday had the classic convergence line for the Thames for a 12 hour period , sadly ommitted today , but still time for it to make a reappearance

[JennyJane1]

Very gloomy miserable day today, very darkoutside, grey skies, continuous drizzle, everything dripping wet, still warm but slightly colder than yesterday, if we are to have snow by tomorrow morning there would have to be a really dramatic drop in temperature by this evening.

[nick sussex]

It’s likely the convergence zone has gone because the cloud sheet associated with the front in the Channel would stop convection.

There maybe some briefly especially towards the ne of London.

After the front clears there’s another window of opportunity as 850 values are still quite low however there is less instability at that stage so probably not as widespread.

The models still disagree on how much snow will develop off that front in the Channel . So you might lose some convection but still get a decent covering.

Given the timeframes the models do seem to be making a lot of drama over what’s normally deemed the reliable timeframe .

Edited March 16, 2018 by nick sussex

[coram]

The current forecast is for the heavier snow to miss the south east. However, all the major forecasters are emphasising that this is open to change. We will have a much better idea of what we can expect this time tomorrow, by which time the models should be converging on a solution. Tiny changes in the models can result in huge changes in where, when  and how much snow falls. 

[nick sussex]

Essentially what’s happened is an extension to the cold . You can see by the fax chart for Midday Monday and compare that with last nights T96 hrs.

The UKMO raw output still has sub -10 values over most of the region at midnight Sunday and there’s still sub 528 dam covering the region 12 hours later .

The push north in the pattern has taken lower heights further west and nw which stops a quicker sinking of the high.

So its swings and roundabouts really. Probably just a case of nowcasting as there’s a lot going on in the space of 48 hrs.

[Uxbridge90]

HIRLAM still looking good in terms of snow for the weekend, was very reliable during the last spell. 

 

[E17boy]

Morning and happy Friday all ?

Hope everyone is well, I must admit when I looked at some of the above comments today felt a bit of sadness rush in my heart. I really hope we get the snow here on Saturday night it will be such a shame if this turns out to be just a slight dusting event.

We will have to see how the rest of today's output pans out but fingers crossed.

Anyway I am in MK today back to work after my sick leave. Hope you all have a lovely day and stay safe.

take care all kind regards 

??????

[mulzy]

The 6z ICON that's rolling out now is a tad further to the south (cf. the 0z run) upto 18z Sat - but the Thames streamer is much more muted.  All swings and roundabouts as one would expect.

Edited March 16, 2018 by mulzy

[Donna3397]

It’s very quiet this morning. Need advice really. It’s my baby girls 2nd birthday on Sunday.  My husband has told me that he’s invited his perantsbt come down from London for some lunch. I didn’t invite anyone just because I was aware of the weather situation.  He then tells me that he’s invited my mum and dad. I did a food shop on Tuesday and didn’t get “party food”  I was just going through do a little party for the family then something next week.  Question 1: How bad might this be ??? Question 2: all my apps including meto are telling me it’s going to snow from 6am sat morning? Is this a potential??? I was goIng to get food tomorrow morning early??????? HELLLLLLLPPPPPP

[onepingonly]

GFS precipitation type has a lot of our region under snow for 30 hours. Clearly it won't be totally accurate but surely lots to be optimistic about. Our main snow last time came from something that wasn't forecast.

[alexisj9]

Just had a quick look basically nothing has yet been decided, when it comes to where will get the heavy snow. We know the cold is coming, time to start looking at radar from when we wake up tomorrow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

43 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The 6z ICON that's rolling out now is a tad further to the south (cf. the 0z run) upto 18z Sat - but the Thames streamer is much more muted.  All swings and roundabouts as one would expect.

Trying to predict snow let alone a Thames streamer is almost a hour by hour watch, as you say they are notorious for slipping under any model 

[alexisj9]

Just checked radar and looked like the sun is helping to build showers in the south today, let's see what they do later.