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East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward


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Hope it's ok to share some pictures I took whilst out around our little village this morning   I won't bore you with them all, but here's a few of my favourites  

Late Feb sun is strong, but i didn't think it was strong enough to melt roads

The thaw not very far away now. An'interesting winter indeed...and coming now to conclusion. Its been emotional and at times frustrating. Over and out. See ya-all november...ish.

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40 minutes ago, saint said:

Snow still falling here and looks like it will for a little while yet based on the radar. Tonight's been a real surprise! 

Wonder if we'll have a few more surprises in the next couple of days?! 

I think the next "surprise" is just appearing in Northern France on the latest NW radar: 

Screen Shot Radar.png

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17 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

I think the next "surprise" is just appearing in Northern France on the latest NW radar: 

Screen Shot Radar.png

:D 

This has sneaked up!

8F606044-FA28-42E3-AC91-B77B88FB73ED.thumb.png.89a8eebdfd5e37e4728ed3590a91b211.png

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So far, by the way the ppn has travelled so far, it seems to have taken a more Eastward track than forecast at this point, even by Hirlam, so I wouldn't be surprised if the MetOffice move their Amber warning for tomorrow slightly further East to include parts of East Sussex and Surrey, maybe Kent too. Worth keeping a close eye on.

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14 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

So far, by the way the ppn has travelled so far, it seems to have taken a more Eastward track than forecast at this point, even by Hirlam, so I wouldn't be surprised if the MetOffice move their Amber warning for tomorrow slightly further East to include parts of East Sussex and Surrey, maybe Kent too. Worth keeping a close eye on.

 

Missed out on London town. ;)

Edited by Daniel*
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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

Missed out on London town. ;)

I was trying my best to be unbiased! :D

But the ppn moving up from France seems to have added some intensity to the ppn over London and the Home Counties, where is the convergence zone for this? That could really get hit hard if the energy from the North Sea peps it up.

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19 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

I was trying my best to be unbiased! :D

But the ppn moving up from France seems to have added some intensity to the ppn over London and the Home Counties, where is the convergence zone for this? That could really get hit hard if the energy from the North Sea peps it up.

Yep more moisture coming up it’s got heavier here! 3/10 from tonight we must have seen a wee top up. :) 

Edited by Daniel*
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5 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

I think we will get a tad more than a wee top-up.  :D

Yep I’m talking about current mess over us I won’t be forgetting this in a hurry. :D 

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Getting Very Windy out there we won't get a level top up with Blizzards but can imagine drifting but is that possible in London suburbs and central london could that be possible? 

Edited by Swave Snow
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23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep I’m talking about current mess over us I won’t be forgetting this in a hurry. :D 

It has been an excellent show so far here. Places that have remained in the shade have at least 6-7" (15-18cm) of level snow, which is more than I have seen for years here!

Meanwhile, the band of ppn moving up from France is beginning to spark ppn in some parts of West Sussex and the Kent/Surrey/East Sussex area, which is enhancing the light ppn that has been lingering over the London area.

It now means I have to now stay up for a few more runs to see how it evolves! :D 

19 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

Getting Very Windy out there we won't get a level top up with Blizzards but can imagine drifting but is that possible in London suburbs and central london could that be possible? 

I already have had some minor drifting here, but where I live is prone to that with an Easterly because I have tall houses to my North so the wind funnels through.

EDIT: @Swave Snow it really has got windy in the past few mins. The ppn from France is making headway fast.

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17 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

It has been an excellent show so far here. Places that have remained in the shade have at least 6-7" (15-18cm) of level snow, which is more than I have seen for years here!

Meanwhile, the band of ppn moving up from France is beginning to spark ppn in some parts of West Sussex and the Kent/Surrey/East Sussex area, which is enhancing the light ppn that has been lingering over the London area.

It now means I have to now stay up for a few more runs to see how it evolves! :D 

I already have had some minor drifting here, but where I live is prone to that with an Easterly because I have tall houses to my North so the wind funnels through.

EDIT: @Swave Snow it really has got windy in the past few mins. The ppn from France is making headway fast.

Is this already different to what the BBC are showing as they imply that the blizzards will be in Wales and the West 

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Just now, Swave Snow said:

Is this already different to what the BBC are showing as they imply that the blizzards will be in Wales and the West 

It all depends on the track of the low pressure (Storm Emma). If it moves slightly more Eastwards, the SE'ly shouldl invigorate the convection in the North Sea and then enhance the ppn over the SE. It is a case of nowcasting, but compared to the 18z GFS, the ppn has arrived faster and has a more Easterly aspect to it than forecast. It is impossible to nail down, but I do think that the MetOffice will extend their Amber warning very slightly East soon.

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http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

The storm itself is still out in the Atlantic, but the first of the spiralling fronts are just beginning to hit the South coast of England.

Latest radar shows some fairly strong radar echoes in the ppn heading into the SE:

 

Screen Shot .png

EDIT: That ppn is continuing to build fast. None of the forecast models had any moderate ppn reaching the SE during this timeframe did they?

Edited by Sno' problem
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5 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

I checked and it looks to me as if tiffthe two low pressures are almost side by side and it looks like they are quite a lot further east than the BBC shows this is potentially  confirmed by the precipitation if it pushes up into the South east as as pointed out it was supposed to stall over the south. To be fair to the BBC they say that the Channel islands will get the heavy snow 1st then spread into the South West and Wales. Are we waiting up to see if this front being pushed up by that system in front of Emma stalls now? Or as the sattelite shows the cloud associated with the front is already into the South east and the precipitation is across the south coast so may be it actually has moved to our advantage maybe I'm dreamcasting lol

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This band of ppn moving up is an unexpected bonus by all accounts. I have been going through different models and none of them seem to have anywhere near the amount of ppn that is currently showing on the radar. It will probably start spreading as it gets closer to our region, but there is a convergence zone where it will hit the Easterly wind currently over us and that is where it could get interesting.

I am still waiting to see if the MetOffice upgrade their warnings... If not, then I am mistaken, but the radar shows a very different scene to any of the forecast models.

EDIT: That's enough for me, it's been a ridiculously long day. I reckon there will be another few forum members who will wake up surprised in the morning. Night all

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I have a go kart by comparison. Am not going anywhere!

BBC website now saying an amber warning for London and South east although met office hasn't updated. Do you think they are assuming met office will issue warning soon?

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7 minutes ago, stormmanic said:

I have a go kart by comparison. Am not going anywhere!

BBC website now saying an amber warning for London and South east although met office hasn't updated. Do you think they are assuming met office will issue warning soon?

Where are you seeing the amber warning? I still have Yellow for over London

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6 minutes ago, stormmanic said:

If you click into the main news article it says on there. They updated in the last hour or so. I wondered if they were jumping the gun expecting met office to update.

'A further amber warning for snow and ice will be in place for London and the south east, south-west England, Wales and the West Midlands from midday until 08:00 on Friday'

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