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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A sign of things to come Baltic Sea snow machine, we have a even better North Sea. Excited.

Cool like that.

My German's a bit rusty but I'll have a go at a translation for a laugh and in case anyone needs on.

Today we have in Gross Sarau lake effect snow from the East Sea help... We currently have reached a snow depth of 23cm. Following pictures and video.

Or words to that effect

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BBC Look East forecast showing a small orange dot over the Thames estuary and a bigger orange area near the Wash. Not really going for anything more than a few snow showers elsewhere and Sat/Sun sleet and rain. 

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3 minutes ago, Retron said:

Wow - jackpot!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

(That's a convergence line, rare as hen's teeth).

Assume it's a nowcast then before we know how wide the shower train might be, think I'm just going to be too far North based on that, unless things get really explosive.

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Just watched the SE weather, rain from Saturday on wards with temps at 10c by Sunday:cc_confused:

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6 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

Are we pushing back the first snow showers? I think 8pm feels a little optimistic 

8PM? I thought there weren't any showers forecast until early tomorrow?

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

good ECM tonight but also crazy !

S

Just a little crazy!

So 12zECM:

Snow earlyon THURSDAY morning, then precip eases off in afternoon. Then FREEZING RAIN early hours when the milder air briefly overuns, then back to heavy snow. Snow pack would be left nicely intact with the freezing rain and make for REALLY dangerous driving conditions. My word!

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1 minute ago, Jayces said:

8PM? I thought there weren't any showers forecast until early tomorrow?

Met Office update this afternoon had the first showers moving in from NE around 8-9pm 

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21 minutes ago, john mac said:

Amazing sunset this evening. Reminds me of Lapland. Amazing colours

Yes indeed, amazing sunsets and the ground here has been frozen all day long, thats a great sign of whats to come, the cold wind and low dew points having the desired effect.

Not long been back from the pier at Erith, Thames estuary looking east was sparkling clear with blue skies. I had expected it to have turned more cloudy by now after seeing cloud coming in first thing this morning, none the less it has turned very cold now with the wind chill its feeling bitter. Will take more pics tomorrow if the snow arrives as expected.20180225_143832.thumb.jpg.3106fd9a017fb55463e3b47a410465ea.jpg

The barrier is shut to the pier, never expected that, so they are expecting a high tide tonight then I guess along this end of the Thames.

Good luck everyone in your quest for the white stuff this evening and tonight....:D:cold:

20180225_143804.jpg

Edited by snowray

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just a little crazy!

So 12zECM:

Snow earlyon THURSDAY morning, then precip eases off in afternoon. Then FREEZING RAIN early hours when the milder air briefly overuns, then back to heavy snow. Snow pack would be left nicely intact with the freezing rain and make for REALLY dangerous driving conditions. My word!

Will be like a bloody ice rink out there!

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4 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

hence the amber :)

Although the line is further south than the warning, so subtle changes as we get closer.

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BBC just forecasting only snow for EA and east coast with everywhere else getting nothing.

They really do seem to have lost the plot with forecasting it seems :/ 

Either that or they are the only people calling it right and every single other service is wrong!

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Just now, throwoff said:

BBC just forecasting only snow for EA and east coast with everywhere else getting nothing.

They really do seem to have lost the plot with forecasting it seems :/ 

Either that or they are the only people calling it right and every single other service is wrong!

They’re wrong!

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14 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Can someone explain dewpoints..

Far from being an expert  (guesser maybe) isn't it the point at which the wet-bulb and dry-bulb temperatures would be equal?:cc_confused:

Damn good question, whatever!:good:

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1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

They’re wrong!

I’m inclined to agree, I just don’t get it. It’s well understood that convection is nearly impossible to forecast but rather than work with it they are just flat ignoring any chance!

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Fantastic on top of Chobham Common 

DSC_0749.thumb.JPG.18e34f4b539f21453432067592783faa.JPG

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Are there any good radars for tracking the showers in the North Sea currently?

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Cambridge -1C  ... here we go :) .. the beginnings (ok so its getting darker which helps :D )

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1 minute ago, throwoff said:

I’m inclined to agree, I just don’t get it. It’s well understood that convection is nearly impossible to forecast but rather than work with it they are just flat ignoring any chance!

I’m finding their forecasts more and more irritating since they ditched the Met Office.

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The METO forecasts on YouTube that I've seen today definitely show the North Sea acting as a convection machine and showers falling just about anywhere. 

Great to see the positivity back in this thread tonight! 

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Well that 12z ECM livens things up a bit for the end of this week - outbreaks of snow pushing North through Thursday, a mixture of snow and freezing rain overnight Thursday before another, heavier front of snow pushes North through Friday, which remains entirely as snow.

A very messy picture so I think it will be wednesday before we have much clue as to where this is heading. Fortunately there's plenty to keep us interested before then!

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This is from the Met Office for  our region tonight:

This Evening and Tonight:

Very cold with a brisk and bitter easterly breeze and temperatures falling quickly below freezing.Scattered snow showers will develop giving slight accumulations by daybreak in the east but more isolated in the west. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

I thought this was suppose to kick off tomorrow night?!

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1 minute ago, saint said:

The METO forecasts on YouTube that I've seen today definitely show the North Sea acting as a convection machine and showers falling just about anywhere. 

Great to see the positivity back in this thread tonight! 

The Met Office has been superb recently. I’ll take their forecasts over any crap from MeteoGroup (BBC).

Edited by CK1981

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Thames streamer possible as early as rush hour tommorow, could cause tricky commutes!! I have to travel from canvey to London and back tommorow, I’m hoping rails will be ok, even for tommorow, Monday night looks even better. Canvey is looking one of the best spots for the next few days, inc Southend/ dartford/ sittingbourne, if this produces 10’s of centimetres it would make up for the lack of snow for many years now! 

299CC381-AE19-4DF6-B6AA-5F51AB2CB7AD.png

834B7D96-6FD2-4212-88D8-885DCAEB4ECA.png

28DEC1C5-5409-442E-AA25-BC20ADA9EB77.png

8B46A1DD-1089-49DC-84B3-48DF10931A4A.png

D892D564-5879-4232-82DE-9F4A153F3960.png

Edited by Justin123

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