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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Euro 4 now more like other high res models. Looking good for 10cm+ tomorrow  late afternoon & overnight 

929EB352-77C5-4B2B-A734-F18FBFC9AB1D.gif

Yes - I put in the MOD thread that the models had really slowed down that front- almost to a stall

Euro 4 goes for 10cm across London... by sat 6am- PPN front starting friday Eve ( slightly later than usual )

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Going to be near T Wells again from today, so watching the more marginal band tomorrow apprehensively. Suggestions of rain on the South coast make that one more nervy. Just hoping the 18 or so miles from the coast plus 150m of elevation (plus inches of lying snow) will keep us on the right side of the equation.

Reminds me how nice it's been up to this point not having to worry about marginality though!

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After the heavy snow this morning, the dense cloud is releasing very light snow grains around some of our regions.

Storm Emma's PPN outer band to the East is moving further East towards the SE. I expect snow from this storm in a few hours time.

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40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

once again for people asking

The forecast is for storm Emma to track up up the SW of britain

The large clump of PPN that everyone can see on the radar is going to push up with it

Some models take the eastern side of the PPN up through the shires, some further west- However we are not really looking at that YET 

We should be looking along to the east of the main band to see if any instability builds in the form of showers 

12-4 pm HERE

F9576E94-C63E-4683-9954-37F9609861F5.thumb.jpeg.1fbe3ab5ea17e8f0e9f38b0d7bd30040.jpeg

Seriously Steve??? You expect that outcome? Thanks 

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5 minutes ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

Absolutely. And there's free dead wood in the woods if required. BUT we have been cut off by both snow and floods in the past eight years, and gritters don't touch country lanes.

IGNORE.THE.APPS!!!!!

Edit: Quoted wrong post. B**dy phone! But the message remains lol.

Edited by seb
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Sky weather just now showed the whole of the south under snow at 12pm tomorrow

Thanet -2.3c

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Yep tomorrow looking interesting for whole region. Still sizeable disagreement s but timing is slowly narrowing down. Should be slow to lift up, indeed still a risk it doesn't make it past the coast given depth of cold. However I think there is real cause to be optimistic in this section of the country!

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3 minutes ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

Absolutely. And there's free dead wood in the woods if required. BUT we have been cut off by both snow and floods in the past eight years, and gritters don't touch country lanes.

Well floods are dreadful but fortunately we're not affected by them. And I actually appreciate the lack of gritting around our lanes. Hate the wet slushy roads during snowy spells - and like to be snowed in once in a while...

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3 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

Seriously Steve??? You expect that outcome? Thanks 

I think he's just noting that this is the area to watch... Showers COULD develop. Some stretching already seems to be occurring, and will be interesting to see how far this goes.

Watch the radar / look outside - anything is possible.

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New showers developing off of southend? Very windy and constant light snow blowing in here now.

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8 minutes ago, echodelta21 said:

See Rao has thrown his hat into the ring with some usual, conservative forecasting.

I apologise in advance for dirtying this thread with a Daily Express link....

 https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/925413/UK-snow-weather-snow-storm-Emma-forecast-Thursday-Friday-latest

there is a typo, should say 2cm of snow across the southeast, honestly think that apart from the highlighted areas most of us won' see.much at all, Although very happy to be proved wrong of course!

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It's either fine drizzle or dandruff that's just unexpectedly started falling 

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3 minutes ago, yamkin said:
After the heavy snow this morning, the dense cloud is releasing very light snow grains around some of our regions.

Storm Emma's PPN outer band to the East is moving further East towards the SE. I expect snow from this storm in a few hours time.

Do you think it'll make it this far East of the region that soon? It looks to me that it's following what the HIRLAM has proposed which means if it follows it's current track it won't be over to us till the evening, and even then how far East it makes is still debatable.

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25 minutes ago, Mason2 said:

Since 2010 I’ve been chasing the snow like many here, where I live in Bearsted we’ve had a good 8 to 10 inches. 

This morning while driving to the office me and snow had one hell of a falling out, but I’m home now and are friends again lol

from 7 this morning until a farmer pulled me out 4 hours. 

When I was driving along the road there was a small layer of snow, car stared spinning the wind and then snow falling created drifts over 1m all within an hour between 7 and 8

1C038B20-2370-4826-A6F7-0A690AA2F068.jpeg

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CFBE7742-127C-4840-8FD0-510C5147A689.jpeg

Wow! I live near Bearsted. It wasn't near there though was it? We had a bit this morning but nothing that would give a drift like that. Unless you were on the downs? 

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This is very exciting waiting to see if the bug blob reaches us!! 

Thanks to everyone for their excellent knowledge I think I'm slowly learning a little bit and mainly ignoring the app forecasts!! 

No snow here but still very cold and grey here! (Farnham, Surrey)   

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8 minutes ago, seb said:

IGNORE.THE.APPS!!!!!

Edit: Quoted wrong post. B**dy phone! But the message remains lol.

 lol and i don't use "any" apps for anything - apart from whatsapp. But i'm on a computer all day and beyond, and when i go out i tend to ignore my phone, to get away from tech.

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3 minutes ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

 lol and i don't use "any" apps for anything - apart from whatsapp. But i'm on a computer all day and beyond, and when i go out i tend to ignore my phone, to get away from tech.

Fair enough but clearly what you said earlier implies that you are looking at the automated forecasts (hourly symbols) - they are the same as the apps. Raw model data from usually one model only.

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9 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Do you think it'll make it this far East of the region that soon? It looks to me that it's following what the HIRLAM has proposed which means if it follows it's current track it won't be over to us till the evening, and even then how far East it makes is still debatable.

Are we talking about evening today?

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4 hours ago, seb said:

Seems to be backfilling over the channel of you look at the last two radar grabs.

 

Screenshot 2018-03-01 08.37.47.png

Screenshot 2018-03-01 08.37.55.png

It seems like aprt from Brighton everywhere snows, I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

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BBC have it down as missing us by a fair bit which seems to be in line with what the radar is showing - sad times.

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4 minutes ago, seb said:

Fair enough but clearly what you said earlier implies that you are looking at the automated forecasts (hourly symbols) - they are the same as the apps. Raw model data from usually one model only.

No, i just look at radar and try to work things out after years of DIY forecasting and observation. I also have a look at meto office forecasts, and one or two others, and posts on here - and synoptic charts.

Edited by Come rain snow or shine

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Just been out for a bracing walk and have to say the wind when it gusts, cuts right through you.

for those interested in how the country's power supply is doing i've attached the usual link below. it's been in amber the last few days but touched red a couple of times. if the gas supply goes then as you will see there isn't much spare capacity to call on.

 

 

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

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Just now, Uxbridge90 said:

BBC have it down as missing us by a fair bit which seems to be in line with what the radar is showing - sad times.

MetO video forecast begs to differ, so does HIRLAM and to an extent Aperge. Either way - more and more agreement on snow tomorrow and according to latest MetO warning a bit more Saturday morning which is more than we had ever forecast.

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