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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Interesting. So do you think we have a chance of snow showers running up from the south into our region later this evening?

It might, it'll be a nowcast radar watching event if it does, very hard to tell this early out,

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1 minute ago, danm said:

Interesting. So do you think we have a chance of snow showers running up from the south into our region later this evening?

Too early to tell, it could just as easily fade away, or it could effectivly merge with the frontal system and provide an eastward extension, too early to tell.

Anyway front is well into the channel, still going to be VERY tight for Hampshire. At the moment I'm literally on the edge. 20 miles will make the difference between minimal snowfall, and 5cms extra!

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I'm throwing my towel.in for anything major now got a feeling my lot was Tuesday 🙂

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Near Gatwick and feeling grumpy. My e-mailbox has more Met Office Weather Warning Alerts pouring in than snowflakes falling outside. And their satellite charts are off line. Nothing is happening here apart from grey skies and cold.

I think they ought to cancel some of their yellow warnings, but they won't. It's misleading people; our son's at home with his college cancelled when he could be in getting on with his projects.

I sure hope your forecasts are right for tonight here.

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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hmm, so the 06z GFS does NOT have a reflection of those showers in the Bay of Biscay running to the south/east of the front and gives the SE nothing. The HIRLAM does and it is this area that the model really develops to give the SE its snow this evening...HIRLAM looks far closer to the mark on them at the moment (plenty of time for change!)

VERY interesting. Its kind of like summer plume watching...except with snow!

I’ll go with HIRLAM. Not just because it shows the better outcome, but because it appears to be modelling everything better than GFS.

Higher resolution models should have a better handle on micro scale impacts I would have thought!

Edited by CK1981

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Just now, kold weather said:

Too early to tell, it could just as easily fade away, or it could effectivly merge with the frontal system and provide an eastward extension, too early to tell.

Anyway front is well into the channel, still going to be VERY tight for Hampshire. At the moment I'm literally on the edge. 20 miles will make the difference between minimal snowfall, and 5cms extra!

Thanks. Let's wait and see.

What are your thoughts on snow in our region tomorrow? That was always meant to be the day where we had chances of heavier snow

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3 minutes ago, seb said:

Not exactly true. HIRLAM shows very light snow over the area which is correct. It has been snowing here lightly since 6am.

However, we are referring to the almost perfect match between radar and model regarding the big areas of precip over France.

HIRLAM then shows snow later this afternoon/evening moving into our area, which I assume are the showers building SE of the main precip area and which are moving NE, right at us.

Hasn’t been here, Crawley, Gatwick or Worthing though and they’re shaded

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agree with the above about Met O warnings, i have had so many over the past 24 hours 

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i havent thrown in the towel. You may be amazed that i was so stupid to venture out in two cms of drifting snow, but I have safely returned from Tescos.

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Snow has been falling more or less continuously since yesterday - anything from mini blizzards to just flying around non-commitally in the air. Cars, pavements and local roads have a light covering, but most people are going about their business and my husband's flight is not cancelled. Under white skies here, the snow is refusing to give up the ghost with very light tiny flakes continuing to come down sufficient to cover the dog's paw prints in the garden from earlier. Many surfaces have quite low snow depths, the garden table is giving the best one of 5cm. Son is insisting we give the local park another try, as we were met by grass and gravel yesterday when we arrived excitedly with our sledge expecting a snow fest.

garden snow 1 March.jpg

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Just now, Croydondazz said:

agree with the above about Met O warnings, i have had so many over the past 24 hours 

I worry it’s a case of crying wolf and when one day we do have something significant and potentially life-threatening ppl will be dismissive because of all the false alarms over the years 😕

ive lost count of the number of dire warnings we’ve been issued since Sunday

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21 minutes ago, clark3r said:

BBC shows the same for Worthing. If Hirlam chart is right we still have a chance of snowfall.

I'm gobsmacked because where we are is only a few miles north of you and we had a snow fest for a while after about 6 am today. The rara showed it should have hit you as well. 

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31 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That one has been rinsed out 

Very fine snow grains from the dense cloud in Shirley/Croydon

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30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is 11z HIRLAM, looks pretty close in terms of position of front:

hirlam-1-4-0.png?01-10

For those in the east of the area, watch the showers to the SE of the main frontal zone, and hope it expands!

So the frontal band won't kill off the shower streamers. You are saying it might do the opposite??

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Just now, Come rain snow or shine said:

I'm gobsmacked because where we are is only a few miles north of you and we had a snow fest for a while after about 6 am today. The rara showed it should have hit you as well. 

You’re not far south of me either but we had a bit of dandruff and that’s it.

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A little more snow up in chipstead and kingswood and the back roads are lethal!

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55 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The snow clearing through now is it for today -

the big clump of snow pushing up from france will hit the SW this eve but then overnight the energy will pivot & spread back SE down the channel & up into our area tomorrow morning as snow - ( maybe in the extreme south coast rain )

The GFS wants to push the front through but other models like the UKMO / hirlam want to slow it down over london / SE

That really would add insult to injury for those of us on the West Sussex coast... roll on summer! :sorry:

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1 minute ago, emf0778 said:

You’re not far south of me either but we had a bit of dandruff and that’s it.

Yes, bizarre that. We're between you and sompting.

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I worry it’s a case of crying wolf and when one day we do have something significant and potentially life-threatening ppl will be dismissive because of all the false alarms over the years 😕

ive lost count of the number of dire warnings we’ve been issued since Sunday

Agreed, warnings were convincing enough for the south that the missus has cut her working week short up in London. 

I understand they have to have the warnings though. 

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33 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is 11z HIRLAM, looks pretty close in terms of position of front:

hirlam-1-4-0.png?01-10

For those in the east of the area, watch the showers to the SE of the main frontal zone, and hope it expands!

What showers! It’s all dry on the radar apart from the main frontal snow

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24 minutes ago, emf0778 said:

yes but that Hirlam refers to 11.00 which was 10 here.  Nothing happening.

Very fine snow grains from the dense cloud in Shirley/Croydon

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1 minute ago, Icebox said:

That really would add insult to injury for those of us on the West Sussex coast... roll on summer! :sorry:

i suggest you'll get some later today/overnight

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The PPN coming over Brest appears to show the met office (professionals) have it spot on. 

Brighton is so close to the heavy stuff. I'm definitely not ruling out getting more snow later. Conditions out there and the uncertainty warrants a yellow warning in my opinion.

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Roads are an absolute nightmare!

Just went to fill the car up/make sure I could get the car out because I'm driving to Birmingham tomorrow, the car was sliding all over the place, great fun! First time I've ever driven in the snow.

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