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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Isnt that minus 3 with the minus hidden by the minus 4 above it....Cant be 3 degrees?

Is -3C, but was referring to the BBC forecast max temp in London, not the current obs that I posted - which won't warm up much from those values recently given cloud cover.

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So is that it for West Kent as the met office says ? This weather front that's gonna hit the South West won't come near us will it ?

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The snow clearing through now is it for today -

the big clump of snow pushing up from france will hit the SW this eve but then overnight the energy will pivot & spread back SE down the channel & up into our area tomorrow morning as snow - ( maybe im the extreme south coast rain )

The GFS wants to push the front through but other models like the UKMO / hirlam want to slow it down over london / SE

Thankyou Steve. I can stop radar watching for a while.

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2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Hilram and Arpege paint a great picture for this afternoon and evening and again for tomorrow morning 

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Let’s hope it’s on to something, as that puts you and I well and truly in the ‘win zone’

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13 minutes ago, mrkipling said:

just keep an eye on the radar and track the snow pushing up from northwest France

That doesn't explain the current MetO forecast for today as that area of snow won't reach us until tonight (if it does reach us)

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Just a few more, this time in Stoke, also on the Hoo Peninsula. Those drifts are crazy! 

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2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Let’s hope it’s on to something, as that puts you and I well and truly in the ‘win zone’

I think as it spreads north it will gain some traction and intensifie 

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1 minute ago, Sarah Anne said:

Steve murr when you say thats it for today

Do you mean the whole region of this thread 

As @kold weather mentions the further south & west you are the more chance you have of getting in on the action from the low over france -

Just looking at the models above ^^ they look a bit to far east to be !

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Just picked the daughter up from school, Minster- Westgate, some drifting, but the standard of driving is woeful, people crawling along at 10mph with their chins on the steering wheel

snow easing now Thanet -3.5c

Edited by A Wintry Mix

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3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Let’s hope it’s on to something, as that puts you and I well and truly in the ‘win zone’

Looks like it develops the southern end of the front. There are showers in that area which I'm assuming the models are keying in and developing and strengthening nicely.

You and me are both far enough west to at least have a chance later this afternoon, but its 50-50 at best. 

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Very fine stuff falling from the sky again, but sky looks very imposing and white!

As I'm in the West of the region I'm hoping to catch some of their precipitation later or tomorrow, whenever it appears.

Forecast is saying no snow for us tomorrow, hoping that really changes!

(Farnham, Surrey)

 

Quote

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Oaks said:

So is that it for West Kent as the met office says ? This weather front that's gonna hit the South West won't come near us will it ?

Would also like to know this as I haven't seen my boyfriend for 2 weeks as he's been away on business and he can' come if the trains are bad:(

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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think as it spreads north it will gain some traction and intensifie 

Seems to be some spread north east from Brest through the Channel Islands. This is the area I’m watching for eastward development.

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Tomorrow morning last hurrah for my region (Gatwick) and then that’s game over for this spell. Hoping the snow can stay grounded long enough in favoured areas for me locally to get the kids onto the sledges Saturday before we put them away until 2023 😂

Had I not been ‘fortunate’ enough to be a working nomad this week, I’d have seen pretty much sweet FA. Cold and bits of powder snow have been impressive however, a real throwback. Cracking drive out to Balcombe on Tuesday and a brilliant two hours at London Bridge yesterday, that memory will endure as that was hen’s-teeth rare in the heart of the capital.

Topographically in an unfavouraed spot in Horley but seeing a colliding front come up from the channel and then all the decent precipitation bugger off yet again to Kent and Essex (not all of Kent and Essex, I know), as well as bunny hopping over the north Downs to places like Thorpe, has been hard to stomach last night and this morning. 

What has been an almost reassuring relief for me this week is to see that in the age of (albeit debated) climate change and AGW, Britain can still ‘do it’ when it comes to unusual and deep cold. If the synoptics are favourable, the cold is there.

So, that’s me done with regard to winter posts unless tomorrow early doors springs a local surprise (experience tells me no and that favoured locations for this spell will remain favoured). Adore the snow but if ain’t going to really snow I’ll be turning my less-avid attention to the first long-fetch southerly of the spring and that first amazing day of the year - as good as any snow day - when the thermometer teases 20c in a sheltered garden with the sun on my face.

Sadly, that looks a way off and more of that vile cold rain (see below) looks to be a feature for the reasonably foreseeable. 

As winter’s go, I’ll mark this down in my locale as the epic winter of cold rain (7 unbelievably close and absolutely hideous near misses) and the year that winter rediscovered its growl in the UK, which gives me renewed hope for when this all kicks off again in eight months time!

Great forum, this. Thanks for your company.

Toodles. 

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My big mistake was buying a new sledge for our daughter on Sunday...

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As @kold weather mentions the further south & west you are the more chance you have of getting in on the action from the low over france -

Just looking at the models above ^^ they look a bit to far east to be !

Having ran 06z HIRLAM over and over in the last hour it looks about right for where it is placing precip, the main snow shield comes up, A3 then due north from there probably the boundary but could go a little east or west from there. The high resolution models then develop another area on the back end of the front, probably from the area of showers.

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6 minutes ago, Oaks said:

So is that it for West Kent as the met office says ? This weather front that's gonna hit the South West won't come near us will it ?

Looks that way for us in Kent and Hirlam dont seem so bullish about tomorrows snow either(really need an Eastward movement of 25-30 miles for us to get in the proper action tomorrow.I think the Orpington,Locksbottom Bromley area has been unlucky in last 2 days as we have literally been on the edge of everything.Have only 4cms here which is pretty poor and very unlikey to have any more today and tomorrow looks dodgy now.Rant over and good luck to those West of me who may still have less than this bit of NW Kent and hope you get significant totals over next 48 hours.Really feel this could be good for Surrey and Hampshire this time:good:

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Have just had to pick both kids up from school.

To be fair it seems to be letting up but roads are now becoming a problem & i suppose they worried about buses later.

Temp still -4.2.

 

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Just slightly miffed that i looked forward to all this and it wasn't even close to happening

Screenshot_2018-03-01-10-31-41.png

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1 minute ago, WeatherMoose said:

Just slightly miffed that i looked forward to all this and it wasn't even close to happening

Screenshot_2018-03-01-10-31-41.png

Same

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46 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Shirley not...

That one has been rinsed out 

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1 minute ago, WeatherMoose said:

Just slightly miffed that i looked forward to all this and it wasn't even close to happening

Screenshot_2018-03-01-10-31-41.png

Same. Really thought things were turning last night for a bullseye but it’s all just gone west! 

I shouldn’t really care but I am sulking today. It’s like the 90’s all over again lol

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