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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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Wind howling round the house! Temp -5c, dew point -9c

Used to tracking French blobs on the radar but it’s usually summer and in the 20’s, not sub-zero and winter!

Edited by lottiekent

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14 minutes ago, stubbys said:

 Skitch.thumb.png.4f0c03eae22978b714e27c4395a49b14.png

 

Is it me or are those the wind directions at the moment? Because that is how the animation plays out, UK ENE winds and France SW winds, almost a split right along the channel 🤤

The bands of precipitation are moving approx north east wards, but the winds will generally be east or south easterlies, at least in northern france. Looking at the sky an hour ago in West Sussex, the highish clouds were moving approx in an easterly direction, against an easterly wind,  indicating the movement of approaching weather systems from an approx westerly direction.

Edited by Come rain snow or shine
typo

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I cant do another early morning snow/radar watch lol,so im off to bed,fingers crossed that we all get a decent splodge over the next 48 hrs,been very hit and miss sadly,night guy's

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3 minutes ago, stubbys said:

 Skitch.thumb.png.4f0c03eae22978b714e27c4395a49b14.png

 

Is it me or are those the wind directions at the moment? Because that is how the animation plays out, UK ENE winds and France SW winds, almost a split right along the channel 🤤

hi stubbys the French band gives impression of winds going NE but is illusion. the low is moving up in a north easterly direction from bay Biscay, the band of snow on its front is actually being blown in WNW direction as below, but on radar we see the north east edge of low coming up towards us each frame which gives the ilustion of showers going in north easterly direction. ETA for band to hit south coast 3:30am heavy stuff to arrive 7am ish.

hirlam-8-6-0.png?28-22

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16 minutes ago, stubbys said:

 Skitch.thumb.png.4f0c03eae22978b714e27c4395a49b14.png

 

Is it me or are those the wind directions at the moment? Because that is how the animation plays out, UK ENE winds and France SW winds, almost a split right along the channel 🤤

That doesn't make sense unless there's a low in the channel right now.

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7 minutes ago, pages said:

hi stubbys the French band gives impression of winds going NE but is illusion. the low is moving up in a north easterly direction from bay Biscay, the band of snow on its front is actually being blown in WNW direction as below, but on radar we see the north east edge of low coming up towards us each frame which gives the ilustion of showers going in north easterly direction. ETA for band to hit south coast 3:30am heavy stuff to arrive 7am ish.

hirlam-8-6-0.png?28-22

Ah ok, thank you, so it' actually the low that is moving in a NE direction and not the precipitation? Thus giving the false illusion on the radar?

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3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Is the ppn on the heavy or light side do we know

Don't know but not long to wait to find out

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Going straight to the wire this whatever happens it’s going to very exciting. Judging by radar sequence the fact that some parts of SE are not even yellow, I’m seriously iffy on.

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@pages on a side note, that chart you posted looks more like one of those paintings I would do at dreamland years back. Paper placed on some spinning thing and then you squirt on different colours of paint. You end up with some sort of marbeled psychedelic picture 😊 Thats how shallow my knowledge is at the moment on chart reading

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8 minutes ago, stubbys said:

Ah ok, thank you, so it' actually the low that is moving in a NE direction and not the precipitation? Thus giving the false illusion on the radar?

 

And/or it's rotating its fronts north eastwards

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1 minute ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

 

And/or it's rotating its fronts north eastwards

Ok cheers

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3 minutes ago, stubbys said:

Ah ok, thank you, so it' actually the low that is moving in a NE direction and not the precipitation? Thus giving the false illusion on the radar?

yep correct the low is moving up in north east direction the precipitation flows around the low. centre of low is still miles out to west of Spain but moves up towards Biscay for tomorrow pushing the front on its north east edge up towards us.

 

 

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Very light snow here now for the last hour. is this associated with the low or is it just weak showers coming in off the north sea?

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10 minutes ago, stubbys said:

@pages on a side note, that chart you posted looks more like one of those paintings I would do at dreamland years back. Paper placed on some spinning thing and then you squirt on different colours of paint. You end up with some sort of marbeled psychedelic picture 😊 Thats how shallow my knowledge is at the moment on chart reading

@stubbys the colours  are the upper level winds speeds in KPH, these winds steer the clouds and of the precipitation. the lines with the arrows show which direction.

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4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Very light snow here now for the last hour. is this associated with the low or is it just weak showers coming in off the north sea?

Have you noticed it’s been around for many hours? Just convective clump of showers..

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12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Very light snow here now for the last hour. is this associated with the low or is it just weak showers coming in off the north sea?

 @Bricriu the remains of the streamers early on still giving light showers across London. 1am radar update looking good low and associated precip now around 50 miles north east of HIRlam modelling at this time. looking really could for all in south tomorrow. believe it or not central London currently looking the sweet spot that will have the Met office worried when they wake up!! 

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5 minutes ago, pages said:

 @Bricriu the remains of the streamers early on still giving light showers across London. 1am radar update looking good low and associated precip now around 50 miles north east of HIRlam modelling at this time. looking really could for all in south tomorrow. believe it or not central London currently looking the sweet spot that will have the Met office worried when they wake up!! 

Can't believe they don't have night people that could issue warnings haha


Would be nice if central London could for once be the sweet spot and not be on the periphery of snow areas. 

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I think I made a good assumption with Emma! This could really caught people out.

0EC86316-41C1-4B85-BEFE-E519B59E3DBD.thumb.png.2a3f02e09a9caff1f00e370067409b75.png

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41 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think I made a good assumption with Emma! This could really caught people out.

0EC86316-41C1-4B85-BEFE-E519B59E3DBD.thumb.png.2a3f02e09a9caff1f00e370067409b75.png
 

It's a watch the radar and see type of game.......the low has still yet to truly bump into the very cold air mass....it might weaken as its slowed in movement

Edited by Bryn Webster

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13 minutes ago, Bryn Webster said:

It's a watch the radar and see type of game.......the low has still yet to truly bump into the very cold air mass....it might weaken as its slowed in movement

It’s well ahead of where GFS had it.

edit: grammar 

Edited by Daniel*

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s well ahead of what GFS had it.

 

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s well ahead of what GFS had it.

That's what I mean in a way...it is exciting that we do not truly know....I have no clue :p

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It's moved across the channel really fast, looks almost at my location already. I might have to get out of a very warm bed and check for snowfall in a minute.

 

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Is it supposed to stall over the South of Britain? It's moving up so fast it looks like it'll be past London by 6am!

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