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Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards


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Still coming down here. I'm so happy i've finally got to see decent snow after 3 years of living  here. I know you all think we get tonnes of snow in the north but in wakefield where i used to live, snow is about as rare as it is here. You don't get those awsome MCS's in the summer up there either! Saying that my rent was more than half it is here though lol

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Officially signing off from my Perch by the window. Have a great year -  Enjoy it with your Families- Current pic - 4.5 inches    my favourite pic - Cheers All

So this is it, the end of winter. Time to look forward to Spring..... Wait, what's this?        Apparently not. So for the time being, we will remain as one for this cold spell. Ple

Some photos from the last couple of days. Near Bewl Water in East Sussex.

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Just very light (non landing) snow in mid Sussex after none all day............but absolutely bitterly cold out. Almost froze my face walking home from the station - complete contrast to this morning when it was evry cold but still. 

Loving the football on telly....as mentioned above they’ll need the orange ball soon ! 

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18z HIRLAM looks to have corrected westwards, still somewhat better for the home counties than the WRF but a downgrade in terms of snow potential for sure.

Edited by Sainsbo
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7 minutes ago, magicpatch said:

Seems to have stopped here :( Nice covering so far but would like a tad more!

 

we're under another blob now.. should start snowing again

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2 minutes ago, Sainsbo said:

18z HIRLAM looks to have corrected westwards again, still somewhat better for the home counties than the WRF but a downgrade in terms of snow potential for sure.

18z HIRLAM hasn't updated yet on Meteciel. Can you post a link, please? :)

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2 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Woohoo we have got heavy snow :)

Where are you?

I was in Amberley, near Arundel today. Beautiful, but snow free, apart from a few shady spots

Edited by Mark
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2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I wonder if the approaching system is feeding convection across our region ?

Yes 100% aiding in it, absolute classic lake effect snow looks beautiful on radar and the sat is also stunning notice the system moving north through France enhancing the snow over us as it edges closer 

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So here's what the various models were predicting for 9pm across France:

9-574.GIF?28-12arpege-1-10-0.png?28-16aromehd-1-9-0.png?28-16nmm-1-9-0.png?28-17P1_GZ_D5_PN_012_0000.gif18022821_2_2812.gifus_model-en-999-0_modez_2018022812_9_15_84.thumb.png.236e2aadc08cefd95caf1931cb9d5fa4.pnghirlam-1-9-0.png?28-16

As stated by Chris Fawkes earlier, HIRLAM definitely the closest fit to the current radar image:

5a971c8f3f414_ScreenShot2018-02-28at21_17_37.thumb.png.49f0a496b5275c8775b6fdb58508d67f.png

It's difficult to tell in terms of intensity how good a match it is but the main thing is almost all of the modelling is too far South-West right now. Now if we follow the sequence through even for the HIRLAM, you'll notice the precipitation runs Westwards along the front, so ultimately even though the system is a little further North-East of where most models forecast it to be, it may not make a huge amount of difference. But it's a good starting to point to try and bring as much of the region in to play as possible:

hirlam-1-12-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-14-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-15-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-16-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-17-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-18-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-20-0.png?28-16

So it will be very interesting to see where we find ourselves in the morning. The giveaway should be if by 7am we already have snow pushing into the South coast and it stretches all the way across to Dover

The other thing to note on the HIRLAM is that it keeps the feed coming in from the estuary for most of the night and then this kind of merges in to the band of snow as it heads North - remember Chris mentioned on Twitter earlier about frictional convection blowing through the Thames....

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