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Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards


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Officially signing off from my Perch by the window. Have a great year -  Enjoy it with your Families- Current pic - 4.5 inches    my favourite pic - Cheers All

So this is it, the end of winter. Time to look forward to Spring..... Wait, what's this?        Apparently not. So for the time being, we will remain as one for this cold spell. Ple

Just popped in to wish my southeast friends lots of snow, the radar looks very active so you should do well and that includes the coming days!..you deserve this

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5 minutes ago, Southender said:

Have you got an iPhone FC?

If you have take the picture, then screenshot that picture, that seems to make it small enough to upload from a phone.

Looking beautiful out there, hoping for a cloudy day to preserve the snow pack.

image.thumb.png.1383bdac6f148854378be62caff59402.png  terrible picture...   

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17 minutes ago, Bob Lee said:

What had thawed in Herne Bay was replaced overnight by hours and hours on off moderate to heavy falls the UKMO put Amber alert up as it was coming so it caught them off guard 

Made a Change ..... a welcome one at that but it won't stop them idiots driving like idiots or venturing out when there's no need to

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Very bright cold, frosty morning, no snow still but trying to be hopeful for Thursday/Friday 

is it looking hopeful for us Western people?

Temp -4.8 (Farnham, Surrey) 

dp - 5.8 

webt down to -11.4 last night! 

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11 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Nothing at all showing on MET for rest of day or tomorrow now. I can’t beleive that from models...

Most forecasts point towards a quiet but cold day today, the met office says heavy snow for us in rye tomorrow and Friday but bbc saying dry tomorrow, I agree models are all saying different then bbc for tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The APERGE looks interesting for tomorrow

APERGE.thumb.jpg.8913b10982852ddffb3c57c3495debdf.jpg

Friday not so much

Fri.thumb.jpg.1651fd094897e8f60faf287bc86cff6d.jpg

That’s different from what all forecast suggest and even what the mad thread suggests snow all day Friday pods early sat

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Just now, paget said:

Very bright cold, frosty morning, no snow still but trying to be hopeful for Thursday/Friday 

is it looking hopeful for us Western people?

Temp -4.8 (Farnham, Surrey) 

dp - 5.8 

webt down to -11.4 last night! 

Could go either way with regards to tomorrow snow but there is a fair chance it will snow especially for those in the west of the section. With that being said the models are uncertain of the amounts of snow the ecm is far better for us, gfs much less so and it would only give us a couple centimetres probably

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Well fortunately my wifes'  cab, turned up on time. She's arrived safely and no doubt Chislehurst has more than Lee, being 50 mts, higher. Just estimated, we have between 1 and 2 inches, on our driveway. Must have come down really heavy, as there was nothing on the ground, when I went to bed at 9.30.

Certainly seems that my "option 2" occurred but a few hours earlier, than the models predicted.

The models suggested a nuanced, incremental, veering of the flow, beginning last night, through, to later today. From NE, all stations to> ENE > E > ESE and finally SE. ( All change!:D)

The radar grabs overnight. tell the story.
1. The late evening, dying away, of the NE, shower train.

2. The push westward of snow showers. on an ENE, flow, up the Thames Corridor. ( Now ending )

3. The flow, turning to the E and our area, losing convection ( Happening now )

4. Flow turning ESE and eventually SE. ( Our region, should become mostly dry, as flow will now have long land track, over NE France/Belgium. ) Snow threat, transferring, further up the East coast, to our north. Just depicted now, on Carol "Humdinger" Kirkwoods', weather chart.

I wouldn't rule out, some light snow showers/snow grains, pecking away, at our regions', south coast.

Perhaps, more so , West Sussex/Hants way, with a slightly longer sea track, than further east along the coast, as the English Channel stirs, in response, to those bitterly cold 850s, certainly no guarantee, though.

After being caught out, by my snowfall last night, have decided, not to give up the day job :), not that I can work yet, anyway, after my CVA, in Sept.2015

I have such a debt of gratitude, to this site, for teaching me so much and furthering my interest, in Meteorology!

I  clearly remember, a few years ago, sitting at my computer and watching radar returns, after severe weather warnings were issued, for many parts of our region, when a strong NE/ENE flow, developed. But the southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary, just didn't fire up. :nonono:Why? A warm front stalled, over NE France/Belgium and the overhang of cloud from it, stopped convection, from initiating. A lesson sorely, learnt!!

I've been rather perplexed, by some members comments, about this cold spell, For a start, the models, IMO, superbly identified the S.S.W., coming. Then quickly identified the signal, for northern blocking, to take hold.

How on earth, they expect a model to nail, an exact flow, 4/5 days hence, is beyond me!! Such a micro scale feature, sometimes, just comes down, to radar watching. E.g, the overnight subtle shift, in flow. Literally , 22.5 degrees, on the compass, in terms of the weather, a mere drop in the ocean!!

Some members, have continually bemoaned their luck, re.their lack of snowfall . It simply, isn't luck, it's a case of geography!! I'm old and long in the tooth and have seen many of these, Winter, convective streamer- type set-ups and think I have a fairly good handle, how the weather, takes shape, in our region, during these spells. It simply not possible for all our region, to experience, equal distribution of snowfall. 

IMO, counties of Essex, Kent, Sussex, Surrey ( some parts ) and the eastern half of London, will always benefit more from convective, streamer type set-ups, due to their closeness, to a source of moisture, i.e, Southern N.Sea/ Thames Estuary/English Channel,

So please before you get too excited : CHECK THE DIRECTION OF FLOW, FIRST (sorry to shout )

It really does help and saves  disappointment.

Anyway, that's enough of my ramblings. All eyes on Thurs/Fri, now.

Then there's March, to come!!:diablo: Rob McElwee eyebrow movement! :D

Hope you all have an enjoyable day.

Regards,

Tom.:hi:

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I have to admit, even though it doesn't compare to historical events (2010, 1991, 1987, etc), this has been quite a good cold spell IMO! plenty of fluffy snow over here, very cold overnight lows, and there is still potential tomorrow!

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3 minutes ago, A Wintry Mix said:
9 minutes ago, Ellozee said:

IMG_20180228_081245.thumb.jpg.5442f94e2931c25e998800dae8ba23f3.jpg

Anyone want to send me anything? Deal microclimate..

Wow,

Got a quiet a bit in Thanet and we really aren't far away from you.

Guess that's the way the cookie crumbles.. I'm an adult I can handle the disappointment. 

 

Snooooooooooooooo ???

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16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

As Daniel says simply stunning out there - Been for a walk temp -6c and if your driving your not going anywhere fast

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Rayleigh Road coping well then Paul :rofl:

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