Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

[John Stevens]

Up in the Surrey Hills the change in wind direction for the stream coming over Sevenoaks is beginning to look fruity!

[turkishfella]

come on, bring it to daddy

 

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

My Stepsons' g/friend, lives in Gillingham and teaches, at a school in Hoo and the school closed at lunchtime and everyone sent home. She had 6 inches, on the ground earlier and looks to get, another decent top up, tonight.

Off to bed soon, up with the wife, at 5.15, tom.morning, as she's got an early morning shift.

Don't think, we'll get much, if anything, up here tonight, wrong direction of flow, again.. Would like to be in mid-Kent/E.Sussex, who like last night, look to be the sweet spots, yet again.

Night all. Enjoy your radar watching!!

Regards,

Tom.

Patience, it looks much better than last night! Not visible yet...

Edited February 27, 2018 by Daniel*

[kold weather2]

Well I've had to make a new account due to forgetting all my details!

Anyway 12z ECM very intreresting as it give us a decent amount of snow on Friday but the big worry is that we are also on the edge of quite a dangerous section of freezing rain overnight Thursday-Friday.

Most models also do bringup quite a widespread area of light snow during Thursday, the GFS is just about the only model that does not at it puts the LP too far west for it intially. Main risk zone for Thursday is for the west of the area, hence why the amber extends into Hampshire/Surrey and W.Sussex. Not to say there won't be snow east of there, but probably less.

After maybe some freezing rain we move into a band of snow. Some disagreements on timings though strong agreements about the strength and motion of the front so unless something different happens, I'd expect some decent falls of snow on Friday morning into the afternoon,though amounts are still uncertain depending on the northward extent of the front.

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Marie said:

Thanks for the response Bobbydog  , how do I view the radar please ? Sorry for all the questions lol 

here's the link- 

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

[stainesbloke]

31 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The issue is that it ain't an easterly. It is a North Easterly which delivers nothing you London or Surrey. Happy for Kent but getting a bit tired of reading 'best snow ever' etc reports. Bring on summer in all honesty. 

Thing is, if it was a direct E’ly then less sea track and lighter showers. Kent, Sussex and parts of Essex are always hammered in these showery set ups. London and Surrey need a trough in the flow, or a front coming in from the S or SW. So Thursday night and Friday might be good.

[Neilsouth]

Waaaaaa

[Great Plum]

4 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

Up in the Surrey Hills the change in wind direction for the stream coming over Sevenoaks is beginning to look fruity!

It’s getting closer to Reigate...

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Thing is, if it was a direct E’ly then less sea track and lighter showers. Kent, Sussex and parts of Essex are always hammered in these showery set ups. London and Surrey need a trough in the flow, or a front coming in from the S or SW. So Thursday night and Friday might be good.

We got hammered here in both 2009 and 2010. An ENE is perfect for us and still has a 60 mile sea track. 

Friday is largely pointless given it will be puddles by Saturday. 

[snowking]

Hmmm. Need a few more frames through until 9pm but the flow seems to be turning a little quicker than forecast at the moment. The showers quite scattered in the estuary but it might give more the region a chance at least a little earlier than expected

[Azores Hi]

It’s nuts in Ashford right now. Imagine a burst of heavy rain, now turn it into snow, impressive! More to come yet! 

[jodaw84]

3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Waaaaaa

Again!!!!!!!! I'm hoping it might get it's act together in an hour or 2 and come a little more south east or widen?

Edited February 27, 2018 by jodaw84

[kold weather2]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

We got hammered here in both 2009 and 2010. An ENE is perfect for us and still has a 60 mile sea track. 

Friday is largely pointless given it will be puddles by Saturday. 

Probably but I'd rather it goes out with a decent amount of snow then it slowly moderate upwards and the next front that comes through is just rain as the cold has moderated too much.

Totals for Thurs-Fri really hard to gauge, probably a decent shot at widespread 5-10cms, but a *low* possiblity of a lot more (especially so further west you go) if the low pressure ends up a little east of where the GFS thinks at the moment.

[throwoff]

Getting another layer in Gillingham, cars that were cleared are now coated again. Path has turned to sheet ice.

[winterfreak]

Looks like I’m in the firing line in about 1/2 hour ?

[John Stevens]

2 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

It’s getting closer to Reigate...

Seems like it's going to dip past us.... 

[abruzzi spur]

1 minute ago, Great Plum said:

It’s getting closer to Reigate...

Do you think it will largely skirt to the south and east of us though, GP?  Looks like it to me, but as you know I am quite a long way from an expert!  At least today during daylight hours delivered some decent showers here, about 3cm lying out in the garden,which is freezing hard at -5.3c last time I checked about 20 minutes ago.

[Kent Blizzard]

Just now, throwoff said:

Getting another layer in Gillingham, cars that were cleared are now coated again. Path has turned to sheet ice.

I love that all the people that made an effort to clear drives and paths are now watching them fill up again muhahahaha

[Paul Sherman]

19 minutes ago, Southender said:

20:05 radar mouth of the Blackwater lighting up.... @Paul Sherman

Thank god for that

[EWS]

The 3 hour radar here looks promising for SE London / N Kent (who are currently missing out on the Mid-Kent bonanza!)

https://www.buienradar.nl/wereldwijd/europa/zoom/3uurs?lat=58.298&lon=-1.717

 

[Great Plum]

1 minute ago, abruzzi spur said:

Do you think it will largely skirt to the south and east of us though, GP?  Looks like it to me, but as you know I am quite a long way from an expert!  At least today during daylight hours delivered some decent showers here, about 3cm lying out in the garden,which is freezing hard at -5.3c last time I checked about 20 minutes ago.

Horley had better not get it! ?

indeed, I was quite impressed how much snow came from that afternoon shower. Just picked up the mini damson from beavers and the car said it was -5 - the pavements were lethal! Maybe you will need those crampons Martyn!

Edited February 27, 2018 by Great Plum
Spelling!

[Snowpuff]

Proper chucking in down in Margate! nice medium flakes, but lots of them! YAY! Haven't seen anything to this extent in 5 years! My youngest son will get to build his first ever snow man tomorrow!

[SMU]

Brighton close by could well be in the firing line here !!

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like I’m going  to be inbertween both the lines this evening ??

[Dipsy]

2 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Do you think it will largely skirt to the south and east of us though, GP?  Looks like it to me, but as you know I am quite a long way from an expert!  At least today during daylight hours delivered some decent showers here, about 3cm lying out in the garden,which is freezing hard at -5.3c last time I checked about 20 minutes ago.

Walked home from work and the pavements were already very slippy, they'll be really fun by morning. At least the kids were able to sledge a bit in Priory Park this afternoon.  I think if we get anything in Reigate tonight it will be a bonus.