Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

[Great Plum]

Well, my children’s school have finally succumbed and given them a snow day (despite there being no more snow on the ground than yesterday!)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

To add first signs of things kicking of albiet early.. down in Kent, expect the radar to kind of fill out with PPN as the front moves north 

[James Oliver]

Now in Dover its more like Hail stones, temp falling - 0.1

[soopdragoon]

11 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

Raining in Dover? Temperature is 0.2 degrees? 

I am fully expecting to be still under the green bit by the end of today, just our little bit, made of teflon  I tells ya! 

[Tom Quintavalle]

13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

roads like a ghost town here I have to say today is by far the worst day for driving the ice is un real! And yet the select few want to drive within 1 foot of my back bumper. 

Back onto today and already the snow from last night has filled the foot prints in and made the drifts even bigger couple of the drifts near 7 -8" now!

 

 

Eyes down to the Radar again

Hi Surrey,

Yes, if the ppn is heavy enough, it's likely to be snow, rather than freezing rain. We seemed to have imported, much less cold 850 hPa temps now, which has caused the freezing rain issue. Temps, just above the surface and especially the surface, itself, are still mostly below freezing.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited March 2, 2018 by TomSE12

[James Oliver]

5 minutes ago, soopdragoon said:

I am fully expecting to be still under the green bit by the end of today, just our little bit, made of teflon  I tells ya! 

Is it likely to turn back to snow? 

[lottiekent]

Morning

Wind very noisy around the house all night, nothing accumulated overnight with the flurries I saw falling just after midnight but not surprised given the wind..Maidstone probably have them!

Currently -2.3c (after a high of -0.2c at midnight) and DP -6c.

Edited March 2, 2018 by lottiekent

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Surrey,

Yes, if the ppn is heavy enough, it's likely to be snow, rather than freezing rain. We seemed to have imported, much less cold 850 hPa temps now, which has caused the freezing rain issue. Temps, just above the surface and especially the surface, itself, are still mostly below freezing.

Regards,

Tom. 

All models that can predict freezing rain have it only effecting costal areas which I would agree with inland we are okay. The reason being is now the temps have recovered slightly on shore wind is playing a factor

[shaky]

14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

roads like a ghost town here I have to say today is by far the worst day for driving the ice is un real! And yet the select few want to drive within 1 foot of my back bumper. 

Back onto today and already the snow from last night has filled the foot prints in and made the drifts even bigger couple of the drifts near 7 -8" now!

 

Using the HILRAM there is scope for more snow today and quite a bit! Note aswell wind is still an issue! Big gusts coming through here 

7am Radfar grab vs 7am HILRAM Pretty bloody close if you ask me.. I Would ignore any rain showing on the charts to start with that will be freezing rain or snow. The snow builds from about 8-9am so the next hour or so will be pretty quiet radar wise 

 

Running it through then..

 

 

Even by 9PM it still wants to bring snow in.. Now the ARPEGE

Moves it through slightly quicker but same sort of idea... 

AROME which hasn't been doing that great if I am honest 

   

GFS for fun!

 

Eyes down to the Radar again

Hmmm those charts looks seriously good for the midlands!!especially arpege!!any snow accumulation charts mate?

[James Oliver]

The best chance we had today and its pouring with rain. ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, shaky said:

Hmmm those charts looks seriously good for the midlands!!especially arpege!!any snow accumulation charts mate?

I take them with a massive pinch of salt as it is VERY hard to predict where the heaviest of the PPN is likely to be. For instances not one model has that heavy PPN over Kent right now... 

BUT here they are by end of play today

HIRLAM                                                     ARPEGE                                                      GFS (lost the plot?)

 

[Kent Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

All models that can predict freezing rain have it only effecting costal areas which I would agree with inland we are okay. The reason being is now the temps have recovered slightly on shore wind is playing a factor

I've had the freezing rain since I woke at about 5 ( in Boxley )

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I've had the freezing rain since I woke at about 5 ( in Boxley )

close to the mouth, with that strong Easterly wind that will be why

[<<Ryan>>]

Light snow in Hawkhurst, It's freezing out in the wind!

[SMU]

Morning All

made it safe into work-

Last day today- going out with a band of snow later - then roll on spring

Peak should be 3-6pm just in time for the rush hour

850s mix below 0c at about 1pm - so up till then poss freezing rain, after 3 they drop to -2c so more snow...

stay safe

X

[West is Best]

24 minutes ago, Surrey said:

roads like a ghost town here I have to say today is by far the worst day for driving the ice is un real! And yet the select few want to drive within 1 foot of my back bumper. 

Back onto today and already the snow from last night has filled the foot prints in and made the drifts even bigger couple of the drifts near 7 -8" now!

 

Using the HILRAM there is scope for more snow today and quite a bit! Note aswell wind is still an issue! Big gusts coming through here 

7am Radfar grab vs 7am HILRAM Pretty bloody close if you ask me.. I Would ignore any rain showing on the charts to start with that will be freezing rain or snow. The snow builds from about 8-9am so the next hour or so will be pretty quiet radar wise 

 

Running it through then..

 

 

Even by 9PM it still wants to bring snow in.. Now the ARPEGE

Moves it through slightly quicker but same sort of idea... 

AROME which hasn't been doing that great if I am honest 

   

GFS for fun!

 

Eyes down to the Radar again

Thank you so much for posting this. Better than any of the professional forecasts!

[Coopsy]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

made it safe into work-

Last day today- going out with a band of snow later - then roll on spring

Peak should be 3-6pm just in time for the rush hour

850s mix below 0c at about 1pm - so up till then poss freezing rain, after 3 they drop to -2c so more snow...

stay safe

X

You too mate. Thanks for all your input over this snowy spell 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, West is Best said:

Thank you so much for posting this. Better than any of the professional forecasts!

LOL! Don't say that, I do it because it is my hobby and that I am fascinated by all weather types! I also like to make sure that people learn how to read these charts and understand them a bit better and most importantly that even with all the super computers churning away trying to figure it out, we still get it wrong. 

Im waiting for the met office have to say around 10am if anything 

[anything-but]

Just got a update from my son in Ebbw Vale... I think it snowed there,. 

VID-20180302-WA0002.mp4

[kold weather]

Think the main focus maybe a touch north than today, northern home counties. Probably going to be a decent fall, will be back to wet snow mind you and I'm not totally convinced it will settle that well close to the coast either, inland should be fine.

Probably 3-5cms today, more towards the north of the region.

[West is Best]

 

 

[PurpleButterfly]

We had snow all day here yesterday but didn't amount to very much.

All schools and even my work are closed today.

Is it due to snow again as there isnt much showing on the radar right now!

Met off app hasnt been to good or the radars as we sat under a band of snow yesterday evening/night and it wasnt snowing!

My kids are still asleep but i no they will be asking when its going to start snowing again when they wake up lol 

[Donna3397]

21 minutes ago, <> said:

Light snow in Hawkhurst, It's freezing out in the wind!

Is it still snowing now ???

my local school have decided to open and I have to say I’m not impressed about the whole fact, of course I want my children to be at school but I don’t want to get them there to have to go out and get them in an hour or so

Edited March 2, 2018 by DonnaThw

[snowy weather]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

made it safe into work-

Last day today- going out with a band of snow later - then roll on spring

Peak should be 3-6pm just in time for the rush hour

850s mix below 0c at about 1pm - so up till then poss freezing rain, after 3 they drop to -2c so more snow...

stay safe

X

Hi steve, 

Thanks for your input over the winter and during this cold spell. Really appreciate your insight.

I'm also hoping for spring now. 

 

[paget]

Morning all ?

nothing here overnight except for the strong gusts (Farnham,Surrry) 

the snow very frustratingly petered out before it got here but we did get a few cm yesterday so I won’t moan!

temp -1.4

dp -3.7 

hoping for a little bit today!!?? 

Stay safe!