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Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Still coming down here. I'm so happy i've finally got to see decent snow after 3 years of living  here. I know you all think we get tonnes of snow in the north but in wakefield where i used to live, snow is about as rare as it is here. You don't get those awsome MCS's in the summer up there either! Saying that my rent was more than half it is here though lol

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Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

Sadly despite Accuweather saying we have had 2hrs of snow, not a flake here in Charlwood. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Sussex
  • Location: Mid Sussex

Just very light (non landing) snow in mid Sussex after none all day............but absolutely bitterly cold out. Almost froze my face walking home from the station - complete contrast to this morning when it was evry cold but still. 

Loving the football on telly....as mentioned above they’ll need the orange ball soon ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
1 hour ago, rubble79 said:

Happy Birthday for next week. 40 is the new 30...

I can vouch for that!  I'm 41 later this year ?

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

From Boxley & Medway I've pretty much watched most of it pass through to my North today but I can't he greedy and pleased more have now hot in on the action :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
7 minutes ago, magicpatch said:

Seems to have stopped here :( Nice covering so far but would like a tad more!

 

we're under another blob now.. should start snowing again

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
17 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Do you think it will arrive earlier than planned, looks like it’s cstching the euro star

Yep thats me :)

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
2 minutes ago, Sainsbo said:

18z HIRLAM looks to have corrected westwards again, still somewhat better for the home counties than the WRF but a downgrade in terms of snow potential for sure.

18z HIRLAM hasn't updated yet on Meteciel. Can you post a link, please? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Just now, snowbob said:

Well Surrey did get its turn

at last

Been a long wait hasn't it!

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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL

The light blues are being replaced with darker blues on the radar.

This is good news!

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

we're under another blob now.. should start snowing again

As it’s blowing about it’s hard to tell how much has fallen. Fingers crossed we get a few more hours of this 

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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
2 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Woohoo we have got heavy snow :)

Where are you?

I was in Amberley, near Arundel today. Beautiful, but snow free, apart from a few shady spots

Edited by Mark
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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
11 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Well I’m surprised how close to the north French coast it already is, so we may be seeing it sooner than modelled.

Many surprises to come tonight methinks.

What kind of surprises 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The icon has us under snow for Sunday as well:smile:

icon-10-84.png?28-18

Edited by D.V.R
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
2 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Been a long wait hasn't it!

Yeah been frustrating

but we have a streamer at last

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

So here's what the various models were predicting for 9pm across France:

9-574.GIF?28-12arpege-1-10-0.png?28-16aromehd-1-9-0.png?28-16nmm-1-9-0.png?28-17P1_GZ_D5_PN_012_0000.gif18022821_2_2812.gifus_model-en-999-0_modez_2018022812_9_15_84.thumb.png.236e2aadc08cefd95caf1931cb9d5fa4.pnghirlam-1-9-0.png?28-16

As stated by Chris Fawkes earlier, HIRLAM definitely the closest fit to the current radar image:

5a971c8f3f414_ScreenShot2018-02-28at21_17_37.thumb.png.49f0a496b5275c8775b6fdb58508d67f.png

It's difficult to tell in terms of intensity how good a match it is but the main thing is almost all of the modelling is too far South-West right now. Now if we follow the sequence through even for the HIRLAM, you'll notice the precipitation runs Westwards along the front, so ultimately even though the system is a little further North-East of where most models forecast it to be, it may not make a huge amount of difference. But it's a good starting to point to try and bring as much of the region in to play as possible:

hirlam-1-12-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-14-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-15-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-16-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-17-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-18-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-20-0.png?28-16

So it will be very interesting to see where we find ourselves in the morning. The giveaway should be if by 7am we already have snow pushing into the South coast and it stretches all the way across to Dover

The other thing to note on the HIRLAM is that it keeps the feed coming in from the estuary for most of the night and then this kind of merges in to the band of snow as it heads North - remember Chris mentioned on Twitter earlier about frictional convection blowing through the Thames....

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Quick question. I noticed this  year all of the grit used is white. What happened to the brown stuff?

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