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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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After the earlier runs today, I was ready with a WIO (winter is over) post refering to the end of the week.

BUT after the METO and ECM 12z runs it'll still be a WIO post but this time it's Winter Isn't Over ! :laugh:

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks a wee bit calmer and drier

 

ukm2.2018030412.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

If that LP system off the Iberian peninsula made it to the UK mainland like shown there, that would bring a whole different meaning to the word "blizzard"!

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks a wee bit calmer and drier still a few showers around but not as widespread

 

ukm2.2018030412.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

 

Comparing that to the 144hr chart, looks to me as the low pressure over Southern England has gone East rather than North

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s two of the big models disrupting the trough as it approaches. Still uncertain and we want to see this theme continue tomorrow. Wonder if the eps will follow the op as is usual. 

There’s a cluster on the spreads taking low pressure across southern France at T120hrs .

 

 

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Quick look at the ECM ens between today and yesterday 12z

t144 the colder air is a bit further north today that it was yesterday

Today                                                              Yesterday

EDM0-1441.thumb.GIF.4c98d7d635fecd5b36020a1a70993bae.GIFEDM0-168.thumb.GIF.b130a2ee1c437f4a93189de4dcc6a622.GIF

At the end the -4 line is about the same as it was yesterday

Today                                                              Yesterday

EDM0-216.thumb.GIF.8de84f4c69b5ce7e95fea1afa93b5cd2.GIFEDM0-240.thumb.GIF.5afda997370a9d587056cc5d15413339.GIF

 

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12z ECM ens for London shows the Op is at the bottom of the spread at the end

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.c37e2eab09326c97b3ad438f3a8fd343.png

Tomorrow to Wednesday the 850's stay around -15

Thursday to Saturday sees a slow rise to around -1 this persists until around the 5th

At the end we see a drop down to around -4

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ECM ens for London shows the Op is at the bottom of the spread at the end

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.c37e2eab09326c97b3ad438f3a8fd343.png

Tomorrow to Wednesday the 850's stay around -15

Thursday to Saturday sees a slow rise to around -1 this persists until around the 5th

At the end we see a drop down to around -4

And for some balance and where the focus has been it is at the very top for Thursday and amongst the pack on Friday Saturday....

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s a cluster on the spreads taking low pressure across southern France at T120hrs .

 

 

A broadly cyclonic euro cluster develops which brings colder uppers back in from the East in the 7/10 day period but wouldn’t think it’s too big at the moment. Getting the jet back onto a w/e axis is crucial to keeping the whole country in the continental airmass  

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South.thumb.png.41aa99c2930e6dc5f066d5237c1ca655.png

Thomas recent forecast shows exactly how precarious things will be towards the end of the week. Although the ECM maybe showing a slight southward correction the problem will be the fronts moving ahead of the low pressure centre.  if the Warm sector air in any way gets into the rotation over southern england the rain will become at best a wintry mix, where as what we really need is for the low to move 75 further east and an occlusion to be lying SW/NE across Kent with North easterlies blowing. I guess tomorrows fax will give a more precise insight as to where the fronts will align..

 

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25 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO extended looks great to elongate the cold.  Think Benelux....= ENE or E flow.....anticipated and confidence is HIGH

 

BFTP

Stop talking so much Benelux all the time ?....on a serious note where the hell is this place?

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Good Evening All ,hope you had a great weekend! Well, ,what a long Winter, it started early and now we face Spring ,Winter still has a big bite and how I long for Spring, Whilst this cold spell does not show record lows , the much touted Easterly will bring very high wind chills , and snow. By Thursday ,we see milder weather trying to push northwards so potential for a rare southern Blizzard , both ecm and gfs show that before it gets briefly mild in the south before it turns colder again...The Devil will be in the detail , but some very interesting weather coming up....Watch this space.....:cold: 

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Just a fairly little summary: It looks as though it’s going to get even colder within the next few days as the models show the blocking Scandinavian and Arctic High Pressure system nudging its way further West with Low Pressure systems out West in the Atlantic getting pushed to the South-West and South of the U.K. This unleashing some very cold and wintry conditions from the East. Some wintry flurries and snow showers look to steadily move in from the East from tonight and into tomorrow onwards, with these becoming more organised and invasive on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the winds from the East, the most frequent and powerful snow showers would be over Eastern UK where, locally, some large snow accumulations could arise. Longer spells of wintry weather are likely on those days, too, as the likes of the GFS etc show some disturbances and kinks in the isobars:

(examples from the 12Z GFS)

21B0E57F-58B7-4734-A7AD-7F7D7A12C7DB.thumb.png.946747b9ef4ee65e1b991ee4cc82a268.png

60CB562D-13D6-409F-97E1-8493C57C9500.thumb.png.658e6107e373e30991805568fb9b68cd.png

A chance of some of this wintry weather making its way over Western UK too, although those to the West of hilly and mountainous areas would probably see the best of the brightest, driest conditions in the next few days sheltered from the Easterly winds.

Later on into the week, the models show the possibility of some heavy rain, sleet and snow poking up from the South (via Low Pressure from the Azores area) over the U.K. But, as others have addressed, there is uncertainty on the track the Low Pressure system could take. This could affect which areas see the most disruptive snowfall and also how much might fall as rain (depending how much milder air gets into the mix. Also, simce the Low would engage with very cold air at the surface, I’d imagine it would, at least, start as snow anywhere). Very possible, however, that the snow might not even reach the U.K at all and may just hang about over the Channel, Southwards. The likes of the  ECMWF and UKMO are examples of the Low Pressure system just getting forced through the Channel maintaining the cold South-Easterly or Easterly flow over the whole of the U.K. The sort of scenario that can help prevent milder air trying to creep Northwards over us. Something to keep an eye on as it could certainly cause carnage for the U.K, especially Southern parts.

With 850 hPa temperatures like these (again examples used from the GFS 12Z for this week):

C8371CB2-6EBA-4B0A-9EEB-EBDA1F855BA9.thumb.png.bdb00ff253161adbe5c46568d05a40b0.png

3021ABEA-B0BD-4285-97C3-84F9E8AD14C4.thumb.png.eed518d18c3cecff1a9706a8276dadac.png

conditions over night will feel as though you’ve just stepped into a freezer - icy with sharp frosts at times. Very possible to see temperatures dropping to as low as -10*C and colder in places. Especially more so when the skies are clear and with slack winds. Accumulated snow would help with the bitter nights too. I think it would certainly bring the coldest weather we’ve seen in a good while anyway. Definitely wouldn’t recommend anyone going out in just t-shirts and shorts, and it would be slippy in places!

After what the various weather fans have been through in the last few weeks or so, it’s fair to say that the Beast is on its way!

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