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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Please guys let's keep Met Office /Mogreps,texts talk out of this thread.This is supposed to be about your views on the charts,not the pros!

We should all know by now there are separate threads for those.

Ta.

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Steve am i right in thinking if this ukmo chart was correct, we would continue to see snow showers and convections across the east of the country, even with the main band of snow to the south/south west?

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Well, just my opinion but I don't think the less cold air will get as far north as the Gfs 12z shows!..in any case, the cold air starts pushing south again soon after...but that's all a week or more ahead and will change run to run, the week ahead looks magnificent nationwide in terms of wintry severity!:cold::)

12_207_preciptype.png

12_207_ukthickness850.png

12_207_ukwbt.png

Edited by Frosty.
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UKMO is typically the sensible model GFS is notorious for over deepening. As Exeter releases a quite sobering update UKMO goes and does that, I think there’s potential for height rises to NE.

Things could swing very easily in our favour I’d say for prolonging the cold spell and the snow good later next week. It’s far from a done deal, regardless of what has the most support ATM.

Edited by Daniel*
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5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

At day 5, it isn't out the realms of probability that thoose 850s could simply drop back the other side of 0C, that isn't a particularly strong pulse of milder air heading NW into the UK with a very weak ridge being sheered from both the east and west.

UW120-21.GIF?25-17   UW120-7.GIF?25-17

So we see that low undercutting that shallow pulse of warm air advection so the mild air would be mixed out pretty quickly. At the surface for the south, very unsure as surface temperatures would be very cold still so freezing rain but snow would not be out of the question if the temperature was below freezing to a reasonable height in the atmosphere.

All assuming there is any precipitation at that specific time of course. If the period of higher uppers coincide with no significant precipitation it is all academic.

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Yes signs on the UKMO T144chart that the cold hangs on in there.

UW144-21.GIF?25-17UW144-7.GIF?25-17

Better trough disruption east across the channel area as the low complex grinds to a halt.It looks like we will see slow moving frontal systems somewhere around that area wriggling north and south .Could be several hours of driving snow in bitter easterly winds to the north of that. 

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Encouraging mid-long range on the 12z GFS with the Atlantic as flat as a pancake. If that low didn't take such an awkward path and leave Friday's event as an all snow event, some very cold minima would follow in the days after. Ensembles and ECM to come next :D.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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 Back to basics here:

remember T850 is only the temperature at one specific level in the atmosphere so don’t see why people say  it is so critical that it alone has to be negative. What if say T800 and T900 was still negative? You would   Likely get ice pellets at worst...everyone seems to  forget about them.       Also remember the height (geopotential) of these levels will be much lower  near the low pressure; 850 hPa would be around 400 m lower than in the next few days.

I think the eventual outcome will be freezing rain or ice pellets at worst  in the far south, Snow everywhere else. 

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As many have said so far. The small correction South on the UKMO has considerable significance. If that continues then the likelihood of rain recedes. Am I right in thinking that if the low tracked down the channel its northern edge would be Snow in the cold air? Also it would pick up more moisture as it rotates over the channel? Which increases the snow potential?

 

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16 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

No matter what the models are showing for thur fri sat etc....it’s not a done deal and won’t be until later in the week. Why are people looking at it like it’s over and all that? It hasn’t even bloody started yet and we are obsessing about the end of the week possible breakdown or not. There’s loads of time for changes big or small

It's the thrill of the chase along with the gambling mentality in a lot of people. :) 

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1 hour ago, Interitus said:

There was only one SSW event, it is common for the zonal wind to bumble along afterwards. It is typically only considered a second SSW after a period of 20 days return of westerly winds.

Thankyou - I had read references to a second SSW, and hadn't realised it's counted as all-the-one-event if it's closer in time. 

 

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50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Not in you live in the far western lands of Devon and Cornwall through I do agree elsewhere maybe from a cold point of view maybe better ? 

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While were divided whether the north or south are getting the most snow ireland are looking likely to get hit with a blizzard less than 5 months after getting hit by a hurricane  :wallbash: 

Edited by Weather Wonder
typo
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13 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Steve am i right in thinking if this ukmo chart was correct, we would continue to see snow showers and convections across the east of the country, even with the main band of snow to the south/south west?

Not answering for Steve here, but I’d say yes. There will be a frontal shield ahead of the low pressure where convection will cease, however further north into NE England/E Scotland that SE wind off the North Sea would bring in plenty of snow showers. 

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Further to my very long post (now buried on page 2) just a short one from me for a change.

We can see the deep cold surging into Europe now - some sub -35c temps showing up in NW Russia moving into north-east Europe.

2 M Surface Temps:          GIF 24 hours to 1650 Feb 25th                 Live updating from 1650 Feb 25th                          1650 Feb 24th

                                       tempresult_nnx3.gif    temp_eur2.png   temp_eur2-16.png

Dew points are even more impressive as low as -40c:

Dew Point Temps:              GIF 24 hours to 1650 Feb 25th             Live updating from 1650 Feb 25th                          1650 Feb 24th 

                                       tempresult_cba1.gif   pointrosee_eur2.png   pointrosee_eur2-16.png

The middle charts auto update every 10 minutes - so watch the temps plummet this evening.

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts
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GEFS mean at T90, 12z compared to 6z, 12z first.  

gens-21-1-90.png?12

gens-21-1-96.png?6

Forget the low for a minute, is there a delay in the retrogression of the high towards Greenland?  I think slightly.  This is important because it may put more force on the  low to take a more southerly track.

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The Gfs 12z actually has a wintry low res with arctic air digging south and a great finish with winter still going strong in mid march!..but it's high res we are most focused on and it's going to be insanely cold..and for many, very snowy too for most of, if not all of the week ahead!:)

12_384_preciptype.png

12_384_ukthickness850.png

12_384_ukthickness.png

Edited by Frosty.
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10 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

The met week ahead forecast shows the low traversing the country in the exact same way the GFS 12z just had. 

It heads in a NE direction. And pretty much kisses goodbye to any continuation down south. 

Akin to this. 

 

Screenshot_20180225-170733.thumb.png.a5ced9af960c5de052f40ae5cca17ff2.png 

 

 

 

Its certainly becoming a consistant pattern in the models now, however i think GFS12Z is slightly overdoing the intensity of this low and as a result the western extent, a couple more days before we can start to make an educated guess.

Lots of weather happening before then which is mostly down to nowcasting, dont forget to look outside and not just at the latest outputs :cold:

Edited by Weather Wonder
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1 hour ago, MattTarrant said:

Very GOOD ICON RUN! 

I shouldn't post a snow chart but hey we have a right to be excited. 

 

ICON Friday.PNG

I know it was just for fun, but still annoying how the heaviest snow falls in the Irish Sea!

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