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Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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The ec op is picking up on the likelihood of the Atlantic trough digging for a day which would drive a day’s springlike temps the further se you are

thereafter the wedges and amplification take over imo - the 06z gfs op would have been of great interest later week 2  if shortwaves around Greenland had been a bit different. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The ec op is picking up on the likelihood of the Atlantic trough digging for a day which would drive a day’s springlike temps the further se you are

thereafter the wedges and amplification take over imo - the 06z gfs op would have been of great interest later week 2  if shortwaves around Greenland had been a bit different. 

Yes remove those shortwaves and we could be back to tv reporters stuck on a hill with all manner of winter wear on! :D

Of course expectations have to be lowered , we’re not going to see anything like the depth of cold and dramatic scenes of the last week even if the models go towards the colder solutions.

But still a chance for some snow , although the ECM ensembles are less bullish about that and we’ll see over the next few days whether there’s any more interest showing up.

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The Gfs 6z op, as with the 00z raises hopes of further cold snowy weather, especially further north with the far north never really into the milder air at all but the Ecm 00z ens mean shows a gradual transition to less cold / milder conditions from the s / sw which is already underway further south, even the far north eventually turns milder...so, there are still hopes that wintry weather hasn't finished with us but there are stronger signs that the week ahead will see a return to more average conditions across most if not all of the uk with northern scotland the last place to see the change!:)

Edited by Frosty.

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33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes remove those shortwaves and we could be back to tv reporters stuck on a hill with all manner of winter wear on! :D

Of course expectations have to be lowered , we’re not going to see anything like the depth of cold and dramatic scenes of the last week even if the models go towards the colder solutions.

But still a chance for some snow , although the ECM ensembles are less bullish about that and we’ll see over the next few days whether there’s any more interest showing up.

Some interesting clusters in the extended 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Some interesting clusters in the extended 

Don’t be shy spill the beans ! :D

 

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Re Singularitys post it’s a very messy picture .

Little wedges of heights all over the place , and the jet tracking south .

Its complicated by phasing, a shortwave running ne is going to run into low pressure to the sw of the UK forming one system.

This then will track into the UK, lots of warm injection into the system so track is crucial .

On the southern side down here into the 20s c .

But some cold air on its northern flank, ingredients with those clashes of temps to develop some heavy precip.

If this evolution verifies then it could be a case of lots of rain and mild or lots of rain on the southern flank with some snow on the northern flank.

All dependent on the track but uncertainties even with a favourable track of how much cold air there will be to engage the system from the north .

PS looking at the updated UKMO further outlook, looks like MOGREPS has some support for the low into the UK and snow on the northern flank .

Edited by nick sussex

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, it's more of a north / south split with the minus 5 T850's line generally straddled across central scotland northwards throughout with just a bit of n / s adjustment..so, rather cold across most of scotland with an ongoing risk of sleet and snow, especially on higher ground, mostly ☔rain at low levels and overnight frosts / ice whereas further south it becomes less cold but not really mild  with more emphasis on rain but still with a risk of overnight frosts and icy patches at times..there doesn't look to be much in the way of fine weather during the next few weeks, indeed it looks trough dominated in one form or another.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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The current set up now the beast has moved through has left the UK as the battle ground between the colder air to the north and the milder air to the south ,currently the models want to keep it that way all week with above average rainfall  for most and still wintryness for northern half of the UK 

It only take a slight change in the runs in the coming days and the cold to the north will sink further south than what's being shown 

The next 24 hours hopefully will see some positive changes l

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Are there any more scandi highs appearing in the odd model run, could be a trend :unsure2:

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Yes, now the thaw is coming (south) let's look for dry warm weather! shame no chance this will move NW

ukmaxtemp.png

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6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Are there any more scandi highs appearing in the odd model run, could be a trend :unsure2:

Hello, is it me your looking for....

 

879A4FED-A82E-422E-964E-90C6409DBBF6.png

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10 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hello, is it me your looking for....

 

879A4FED-A82E-422E-964E-90C6409DBBF6.png

Those scandi high weather patterns do have a habit of repeating themselves

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Don’t be shy spill the beans ! :D

 

Each suite has growing evidence of high anomolys to our north/northwest 

4C1308D4-2C02-498B-9813-54716D7957A7.thumb.jpeg.98631f15a01e807befceb840d1b61b94.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hello, is it me your looking for....

 

879A4FED-A82E-422E-964E-90C6409DBBF6.png

Yeah nice song that..shame Exeter are going for milder w / sw winds in that timeframe but there is still hope of colder incursions, at least across the north during the next 10-15 days or so..still some interest from the Gfs / Gefs for winter to make a comeback following a less cold spell across most of the uk.:D

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17 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hello, is it me your looking for....

 

879A4FED-A82E-422E-964E-90C6409DBBF6.png

but wouldn't say no to that either! just feel my location is in for crappy temps just below 10 degrees for foreseeable future, in March you either want warm Spring weather, or proper cold/snow, not in the middle

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What a messy synoptic picture we have over the next few days...

My worry is that if some milder air gets caught up within these areas of low pressure, this could lead to some high rainfall totals and some nasty flooding. We want a gradual thaw with little rainfall rather then a quick one with lots of it.

The models suggest that for most of next week there shouldn't be any really mild air getting caught up in the slack cyclonic pattern, though rainfall I suspect will still be above average. 

I've noticed that a lot of the output keeps the cold air over Scandinavia with low pressure over the UK. Don't be surprised if this leads to a return of some cold weather later as these examples show.

NOAA_1_2009122718_1.png lead to NOAA_1_2009123118_1.png December 2009

NOAA_1_2013031718_1.png lead to NOAA_1_2013032518_1.png March 2013

NOAA_1_2006030818_1.png lead to NOAA_1_2006031618_1.png March 2006

Cold air over Scandinavia often leads to rises in pressure over that region so it will be interesting to see if that is also the case this time around.

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Looking at the overall ens 500hPa heights for the next 10 days we see plenty of wedges(+ve heights) lurking further north,signs maybe that having taken a late hit from the recent dramatic warming the vortex may not now fully recover.

A look at the ecm mean anomalies for days 5 and 10

EDH101-120.GIF?03-12EDH101-240.GIF?03-12

It seems that we may be stuck in a rather cool cyclonic setup but within that any stronger development of heights to our north could just see some or all of us on the cold side of any approaching low off the Atlantic.If we see for example the day 7 mean 850 line

EDM0-144.GIF?03-12

showing the -4/5c uppers over Scotland so cold air never far away with the jet running well south.

After the excitement and almost novel feeling of seeing a classic bitter easterly after what seems like an age we are now back to more normal model viewing.

Still the coming weeks are not without interest as March can be such a changeable month.With still cold Arctic air just lurking to our north and the sub-tropical warmth expanding to our south we often see some large ranges in temperature across the UK creating some interesting scenarios as the 2 clash.

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My gut feeling is that there will be another disruptive snowfall in England before the end of the month though it will be the marginal heavy wet type. 

There is so much cold air up to our north and northeast that it could pounce at anytime with a meandering and weak jet. 

I hope I am wrong as I am now looking forward to some spring warmth and the first occasion to get the shorts out !

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8 minutes ago, kev238 said:

My gut feeling is that there will be another disruptive snowfall in England before the end of the month though it will be the marginal heavy wet type. 

There is so much cold air up to our north and northeast that it could pounce at anytime with a meandering and weak jet. 

I hope I am wrong as I am now looking forward to some spring warmth and the first occasion to get the shorts out !

I hope you are right and the cold makes a comeback. The 12z ICON brings the cold back from Thursday next week which is a notable shift in the earlier output.

A snow event looks possible by Saturday http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&map=0&archive=0 

Edited by karyo

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Going by the ensembles for Norfolk, I'm not holding out for spring to arrive during march, the daffodils are going to be shivering for a while longer.

t850Norfolk (2).png

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I think we have further model watching fever ahead.  Now this LP that arrived isn’t doing what I thought it would of Benelux centre but sits with us....pity.  However, I believe this will become the eventual outcome with HP to our NW.  Very cold air remains over Scandi and I think will intensify, thus remaining within striking distance.  With the jetstream almost heading towards the equator (exaggeration I know) but I won’t be expecting a decent Spring burst for a while yet.

 

BFTP   

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Very complex Gfs 12z with little lows spinning around all over the place but it does show some snow events on the way which is always nice to look at and hope for!:D

Edited by Frosty.

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