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Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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47 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

borderline FI...?

Nada.. nailed on! :laugh:

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43 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

East wind stretching all the way across the Atlantic towards Nova Scotia!

950E73BE-05B9-4A11-B4B8-71E0E90F724C.png

I could be wrong here, but doesn’t earth.nullschool just use the raw GFS data to produce wind vectors? I usually see it being used on various news channels whenever there are gale force winds, and they often mislead by presenting it as live data. The only live data I know of comes in from a network of monitoring stations.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

looking at the extended modelling aaron, i'd say its definitely the case that the westerlies will struggle and we will see another sig amplification and possible HLB within a couple weeks. clearly that wont mean a repeat of what we're just seeing come to a close but chances of snowfall certainly remain better than average for march.

I noticed last week that the whole of the NH profile was in an easterly at 10hpa which I found incredible. Now there seems to be a recovery of the westerly flow ?

64BF3E90-02F7-4D75-A69E-260B6222CCB5.png

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49 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at the GFS this afternoon and I'm thinking spring doesn't look to be turning up any time soon.

h500slp.png

Spring will be turning up. The raw output for the south on the GFS is pretty average fair. A few ups and a few downs. 

Bound to be a few colder spells, it's still only march. As long as we don't see a repeat of 2013 I'll be happy.

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Can one of our resident SSW folks say whether there was an SSW in Feb-March 1975? The change from ridiculously mild to cold was very abrupt...

Could this Spring be as cold as that one was?:unknw: 

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44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looking at the extended modelling aaron, i'd say its definitely the case that the westerlies will struggle and we will see another sig amplification and possible HLB within a couple weeks. clearly that wont mean a repeat of what we're just seeing come to a close but chances of snowfall certainly remain better than average for march.

Maybe not, maybe yes.

image.thumb.png.086fe672ee31c60d7a4fae3a4f18c093.png

We all love the Beast :wink:

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3 minutes ago, Purga said:

Maybe not, maybe yes.

image.thumb.png.086fe672ee31c60d7a4fae3a4f18c093.png

We all love the Beast :wink:

It would truly elevate this cold spell to an all time great if we had a rinse and repeat! Plus it would really annoy SS! 😉

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8 minutes ago, Purga said:

Maybe not, maybe yes.

image.thumb.png.086fe672ee31c60d7a4fae3a4f18c093.png

We all love the Beast :wink:

Won't come close to verifying. The beast is dying.

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I think the Beast has hijacked the 12z ENS mean from next friday onwards! :bomb:

image.thumb.png.9932a78423eaf0e2b5965c40143e7ce4.png

Seriously though, there is a fair spread including plenty of ongoing cold ones. :)

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening Guys 

Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground -

have a great year !

Current

8A9F3F5F-D72B-4E4F-A8EC-D76E0E5A23AE.thumb.jpeg.9b375d895aeabfb3cc4e5ef440b3b5be.jpeg

 

favourite

CDF2177A-3CFF-4C21-A8C8-A9BF99A0C0B3.thumb.jpeg.c3c0dbfd5afd95a5f4be0c6de7fbfe06.jpeg

 

See you next year

S

See you next Saturday then, Steve?:santa-emoji:

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening Guys 

Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground -

have a great year !

Current

8A9F3F5F-D72B-4E4F-A8EC-D76E0E5A23AE.thumb.jpeg.9b375d895aeabfb3cc4e5ef440b3b5be.jpeg

 

favourite

CDF2177A-3CFF-4C21-A8C8-A9BF99A0C0B3.thumb.jpeg.c3c0dbfd5afd95a5f4be0c6de7fbfe06.jpeg

 

See you next year

S

Well done Steve, your posts are great, knowledge too, easterly finally came, you deserved that snow! 

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Hmmm interesting GEFS! 

The outputs want to dig the jet sw and back ne so much depends on how far east that dig occurs , it’s possible you could end up with lows running ne along that jet into the UK engaging cold air on the northern flank of those lows.

But if the pattern is too far west it will be milder.

Because of the southerly ahead of the digging jet, so it could go either way at this stage .

 

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well done Steve, your posts are great, knowledge too, easterly finally came, you deserved that snow! 

I can’t remember who it was but I do remember someone telling Steve to give up the chase for that easterly as it will never happen! Lol! Well he didn’t and it did! Ha ha! I’m not so sure we are finished just yet tho! One last hurrah?

ps. not that was you Atlantic 252 at all! I was just following your post! 

Edited by Stevie B

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Nasty looking low popping up on ECM next Saturday mild in the south and cold in the north

ECU1-192.GIF.thumb.png.0bb00c75645a42dc2589b052a5e036dc.pngECU0-192.GIF.thumb.png.6cca339f889b9969f4cc0166185043b8.png

The low is still around Sunday but the milder air moves away

ECU1-216.GIF.thumb.png.fbecfd59227227745ac3282bd179bed0.pngECU0-216.GIF.thumb.png.763b6a3929904a46b099a95f6dfc137a.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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I can see another cold spell from the north or northeast this month

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15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I can see another cold spell from the north or northeast this month

What drugs are you on, Lass?:db:

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57 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

See you next year

S

Not expecting much in December?

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It's been a great week, the models have never looked so good in recent days but now the beast is dying, it's been mortally wounded and the models generally show less cold air will be slowly spreading up across the uk from now onwards with scotland slowly becoming less cold too..such a pity it had to end.:nonono::).

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's been a great week, the models have never looked so good in recent days but now the beast is dying, it's been mortally wounded and the models generally show less cold air will be slowly spreading up across the uk from now onwards with scotland slowly becoming less cold too..such a pity it had to end.:nonono::).

It’s always rather sad when you see the snow disappearing. You sort of get used to it and it’s been a great week for most of the UK.

I think the snow cover could hang on for quite a while in the north and colder air is never far away.

 

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47 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

What drugs are you on, Lass?:db:

:unsure2: lol

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Those in the south need not worry about the milder air the London ens shows next weekend ECM 12z op has gone off on one

 

graphe_ens3.php.png

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Those in the south need not worry about the milder air the London ens shows next weekend ECM 12z op has gone off on one

 

graphe_ens3.php.png

If the ensembles are similar in pattern that suggests the op has the set up too far west.

So low track would correct further east. 

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