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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM op on the mild side of the ensembles. -3c uppers with cold at the surface helped by snow cover = continued risk of snow for all next week.

    in the short term it’s a forecasters nightmare placing the precip. Take tomorrow afternoon for example ; Euro 4, which is usually v accurate is very different to many of the other high res models : 

     

    36ED7919-BFEA-4EC8-909F-27BEB20A009A.gif

    036842F5-26ED-4FC5-B437-4776D2D65802.png

    9D67D8B4-2A3C-40FB-A3D9-288286077A6A.gif

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    Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

    First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

    See you next Saturday then, Steve?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Very true Tim, a forecasters nightmare, I can imagine the scenes in the main forecast room at Exeter. Still they can take heart, if they still do the 12 hour day then they only have 10 more hours of it! There were times when it seemed like forever. Not in the then centre at Bracknell but Manchester airport which was at the time the main forecast centre from Birmingham north especially for any airfields. Happy times.

    It will get milder eventually but cold blocks do not like being moved and it can take ages. In the meantime putting egg on many faces trying to predict it!

    My best estimate is some entries back re the usual 500 mb charts

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM op on the mild side of the ensembles. -3c uppers with cold at the surface helped by snow cover = continued risk of snow for all next week.

    in the short term it’s a forecasters nightmare placing the precip. Take tomorrow afternoon for example ; Euro 4, which is usually v accurate is very different to many of the other high res models : 

     

    36ED7919-BFEA-4EC8-909F-27BEB20A009A.gif

    036842F5-26ED-4FC5-B437-4776D2D65802.png

    9D67D8B4-2A3C-40FB-A3D9-288286077A6A.gif

    Certainly for us in South East County Down it has been causing us and continues to cause us a headache now. I still have no idea whether I will get heavy snow or nothing in 24 hours time.

    You mention the Euro 4 being accurate, but this time yesterday it had no accumulating snowfall for anywhere in Northern Ireland yet areas have seen nearly a foot and more.

     

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS 06 hrs run is  now developing that Channel shortwave , this will delay the push north of less cold air into the UK.

    It doesn’t however manage to separate this from remaining attached to the main upstream low.

    To extend the cold further you need that to separate cleanly and work towards the Low Countries. Alternatively work back nw with enough energy splitting from it eastwards.

    I think for the timebeing it’s best to remain dubious of a quick return to less cold conditions for most of the UK.

    The main jet is still heading towards Africa and there’s very little momentum from the sw.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.6ac29c9545fafd986a777dbe1bc9f1f1.png

    Ah stubborn GFS, still not bringing the cold in, no change yet... as Nick mentioned its all about sending shortwave energy east to keep the easterly flow going. Ensemble members may not handle such fine details so well.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Well we may be in for a 'less cold' week after the weekend but beyond that the outlook according to the GFS 06z Op run is anything but!

    Typically we go from this next Friday

    image.thumb.png.178478b0878202bc15eb6bc03e5bda9f.pngimage.thumb.png.cdc408ec7870de7c32b6866ab590f76d.png

    To this

    image.thumb.png.dca29da1686dfdfb41ea168bd5001979.pngimage.thumb.png.5b7a3d053a62e237456301583cb91e41.png

    Ending with this

    image.thumb.png.d3f6c1f95c9f2416bd61eade670b503c.pngimage.thumb.png.d70429dcdbf6cfc6afd76e6bc4364d86.png

    The 06z ENS show a lot of spread but even after Mon / Tues next week there are a good few very cold members

    image.thumb.png.68f0d95102bc049d5d7502a0413831bc.png

    All in FI of course but little wonder that METO text updates for the extended period are remaining so wintry!

    :)

    image.png

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Short ens for London on the 06z showing good support for less cold air at least in the south next week

    graphe_ens3_ftz2.thumb.gif.f86e35ec2226276cd5aac3976b3c698d.gif

    Should see temps get up to around 7c instead of at or below zero :)

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Anyway whilst most are in the regional threads enjoying the wintry conditions.

    I myself am wondering which model or models are closer to the facts.

    And also bit confused about the snow warnings for the south of England I know Southampton have had a fair bit but we in Portsmouth have a dusting.

    I also await the ECM tonight and tomorrow because I think the storm Emma has shifted more to our southwest than first thought.

    Considering I have 5 children all coming home at 1,15 I think is rather dramatic even to the point that one of my children is ment to be sitting an exam.

    Now this must prove that in these situations the models are clueless,

    But of course human input from the UK met shows difference's from the raw output.

    But my question is are the models correct for southerners and has the milder southeasterly flow moved in quicker than expected.

    Currently -1.3c so an ice day but also freezing rain.

    Also nice seeing the ECM wants to try another shot at cold coming back.

    Unbelievable how erratic weather can be.

    I just can't believe all these children sent home for a none starter especially here in the south.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Short ens for London on the 06z showing good support for less cold air at least in the south next week

    graphe_ens3_ftz2.thumb.gif.f86e35ec2226276cd5aac3976b3c698d.gif

    Should see temps get up to around 7c instead of at or below zero :)

    What about for you location? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    23 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.6ac29c9545fafd986a777dbe1bc9f1f1.png

    Ah stubborn GFS, still not bringing the cold in, no change yet... as Nick mentioned its all about sending shortwave energy east to keep the easterly flow going. Ensemble members may not handle such fine details so well.

    Yeah we could do with the blue and orange lines increase to say 18Z Tuesday levels but last nights ECM was encouraging if prolonged cold is your thing.I really think that with the deep snow cover and entrenched cold along with with a jet stream way south into N Africa and this very cold spell may have a bit to run yet,if not for the South,certainly for Northern England and Scotland

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Short ens for London on the 06z showing good support for less cold air at least in the south next week

    graphe_ens3_ftz2.thumb.gif.f86e35ec2226276cd5aac3976b3c698d.gif

    Should see temps get up to around 7c instead of at or below zero :)

    Indeed, if we are taking the 6z GFS as gospel - then that rise in temperatures won't be around for long. As above, the further north you go, the colder the graphs too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    What about for you location? 

    Up to around 5c instead of 'highs' of around -1c

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Sorry wrong thread

    Edited by Number 23
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z ICON shows the less cold air starting to move a bit further north by the end of Sunday

    icon-1-78.thumb.png.d4c902b3635f46c4dace5e380a1626db.png

    -8 850s by this stage are over the north and Scotland

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z ICON shows the less cold air starting to move a bit further north by the end of Sunday

    icon-1-78.thumb.png.d4c902b3635f46c4dace5e380a1626db.png

    -8 850s by this stage are over the north and Scotland

     

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    12z ICON shows the less cold air starting to move a bit further north by the end of Sunday

    icon-1-78.thumb.png.d4c902b3635f46c4dace5e380a1626db.png

    -8 850s by this stage are over the north and Scotland

     

    But the all important 850 0C line is still over France

    As it is on the GFS 

     gfs-1-102.png?12

    But the UKMO has the low further north

    UW120-21.GIF?01-16
     

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: Truro
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    But the all important 850 0C line is still over France

    As it is on the GFS 

     gfs-1-102.png?12

    Which is a lot different to what was predicted only 24 hours ago :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 12z has the -8 850's north of mainland Scotland by Monday with temps slowly begging to rise in the south still below the average but higher than of late

    gfs-1-96.thumb.png.9751b6c0657a472584418a92d40284ea.pnggfs-9-96.thumb.png.c9771678e862d67bf2a56ca53b1aa5c8.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.a200f8de6d3e217401ec6cbf08f3d262.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    GFS 12z has the -8 850's north of mainland Scotland by Monday with temps slowly begging to rise in the south still below the average but higher than of late

    gfs-1-96.thumb.png.9751b6c0657a472584418a92d40284ea.pnggfs-9-96.thumb.png.c9771678e862d67bf2a56ca53b1aa5c8.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.a200f8de6d3e217401ec6cbf08f3d262.png

     

    It's almost as if the surface cold has held on longer than anticipated...... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO 850's take the coldest air away by Monday and Tuesday

    UW96-7.thumb.GIF.9bdcd42ac7787fff4106a7a1ac915cb3.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.baa5e1a4ee2fb95bf2b12212df8ec660.GIF

    Midweek sees some slightly colder air pushing again but the 850's will be around -4 as opposed to -15's of this week

    UW144-7.thumb.GIF.b4e6563edb42c243120ebf74533203b4.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ICON 12z showing temps high enough for a thaw to kick in for the far south during Sunday and Monday not so further north

    12_75_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.e8b003c641dcc61b40bb5bd54073ce40.png12_99_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.db30c6659486a6001bf453d9da66f64d.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z London mean staying between around 0 and -5 from tomorrow through to the 17th with the snow row no higher than 20%

    graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres_zxm1.thumb.gif.4fb38d4b770d241ca96b3f7bb96d9c5f.gif

    Fair play to GFS though it picked up this rapid change last Saturday on the London ens between the 1st and 2nd and has stuck with it since

    MT8_London_ens.png.4bf497119c7b4e4c7720037a66155c5e.thumb.png.eeafcc14aa16c3866a199189f85e07a7.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Hope @Summer Sun is not looking at the ECM because here be having kittens again ?. Colder air coming back south ?

    IMG_1865.PNG

    Edited by ICE COLD
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