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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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It’s always known gfs is useless with these sort of set ups just stick with the Euros in these rare Synoptics we are seeing being played out,still think it’s the SW that’s going to be hit hard from this then possibly out zSouthern counties before the bitter air pushes the low S again.

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

What is it with people's obsession with that temperature profile? It's been said so many times before that we shouldn't rely too much on those temperatures for predicting snowfall. 

It would not be snow for the south under those uppers, that's all I'm saying. Especially with winds directly off the sea

Edited by Weathizard
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Just now, Weathizard said:

It would not be snow for the south under those uppers, that's all I'm saying.

Even with ‘mild air’ sliding over a very cold surface temperature and favorable dew points ? Hmmm ? 

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2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

MOGREPS mate. The next low filled behind and keeps us in Easterlies hence the text updates

Inghams are you having an affair with one of the cleaners at Metoffice Head Office? All this inside information you are providing is fascinating - keep it coming!  :rofl:

@Ayrshire weather I’m the opposite from you - model fatigue has set in! Feels like we have all been counting down this Beast from the East for months! :D So good to see it incoming at last - once again incredible looking charts from the latest UKMO and GFS right up until Friday for all the UK and Ireland. (keeps going in the North after this) 

:santa-emoji::cold-emoji::cold:

 

 

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GFS really deepens that low. The GFS has a habit of wrongly doing that, so it gives hope that it's modelling it wrong.

UKMO so much better. Thank goodness. Otherwise I think many people would have lost hope altogether on the cold continuing in the south.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It would not be snow for the south under those uppers, that's all I'm saying. Especially with winds directly off the sea

The surface wind is due East here on ukmo 120, very short sea track.

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7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Something doesn't look right about that chart. Clearly, with those uppers its 'wet wet wet' rather than 'snow patrol' in the South :D, but looking at the 500 chart I'm really surprised to see the milder air that far north!! 

It’s only a short journey to bring them up from Europe via the low pressure circulation. 96h shows them ready to pounce.

UW96-7_ptd2.GIF

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Inghams are you having an affair with one of the cleaners at Metoffice Head Office? All this inside information you are providing is fascinating - keep it coming!  :rofl:

@Ayrshire weather I’m the opposite from you - model fatigue has set in! Feels like we have all been counting down this Beast from the East for months! :D So good to see it incoming at last - once again incredible looking charts from the latest UKMO and GFS right up until Friday for all the UK and Ireland. (keeps going in the North after this) 

:santa-emoji::cold-emoji::cold:

 

 

???? can't say mate I'm afraid but yeah this is a fluid situation!

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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

Even with ‘mild air’ sliding over a very cold surface temperature and favorable dew points ? Hmmm ? 

In fairness to weatherwizard, on the Meto 120 anything shaded green is likely to be rain / sleet (or freezing rain!!). Its the sort of set up where 850s of Zero or less and its snow, but once they go over zero its surely not snow at that point!

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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I doubt it would be snow with +ve 850's........ but it wouldn't much of a shove south either to regain -ve 850's

I'd need to see the temps lower down in the boundary layer; in these setups it can be colder the lower down you go. Hence those few very heavy snow events in the past with 850s a tad above zero.

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The saga of the low pressure has further to run yet. A nightmare scenario for forecasters as some areas could get buried in snowfall yet a small shift would lead the same areas into a wet rather than white scenario! 

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No matter what the models are showing for thur fri sat etc....it’s not a done deal and won’t be until later in the week. Why are people looking at it like it’s over and all that? It hasn’t even bloody started yet and we are obsessing about the end of the week possible breakdown or not. There’s loads of time for changes big or small

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UKMO 144h 850s, the milder, rainier stuff in the south may turn out to be a 12/24 hour one, this time maintaining excellent 850s north of the M4 at least with the potential to have them dragged down southwards later.

UW144-7_iar0.GIF

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At day 5, it isn't out the realms of probability that thoose 850s could simply drop back the other side of 0C, that isn't a particularly strong pulse of milder air heading NW into the UK with a very weak ridge being sheered from both the east and west.

UW120-21.GIF?25-17   UW120-7.GIF?25-17

So we see that low undercutting that shallow pulse of warm air advection so the mild air would be mixed out pretty quickly. At the surface for the south, very unsure as surface temperatures would be very cold still so freezing rain but snow would not be out of the question if the temperature was below freezing to a reasonable height in the atmosphere.

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