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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    You’re welcome thanks. :)

    It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

    And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

    Astonishing turnaround ! :)

     

    A 'shortwave spoiler' for the mildies? Who'd a thunk it!:yahoo:

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    Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

    First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

    See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM ensembles from this morning show there’s still a cluster with more trough disruption.

    We’re not looking for big changes , small incremental changes between runs will do fine .

    The mission is cold extension and snow retention ! :)

    And then to increase chances for further snow , but crucial to get that trough disruption.

    Whatever happens for some parts of the UK this cold spell has been exceptional perhaps not in terms of duration but  the depth of cold in terms of uppers might never be seen again this late in the season for many years to come.

    Well, well, well what do you think of ECM 12z then Nick? Seems like the model was eavesdropping on you LOL! :laugh:

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    Bring it on !:yahoo:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Okay calm down folks including me! :D

    Just one ECM run and the others don’t have this sort of upgrade .

    Given the timeframes we won’t have long to wait to find out, the differences start very early .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    It is just a shame ECM has been so erratic of late and all the other output goes against this Op run, it will need to be repeated tomorrow before I even blink.:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Mucka said:

    It is just a shame ECM has been so erratic of late and all the other output goes against this Op run, it will need to be repeated tomorrow before I even blink.:unsure2:

    I cannot remember the last time the ECM picked up on a trend first TBH...which is a shame because this is a great run...keeps it cold right out to Wednesday next week so far

    ECM0-168.GIF?28-0

    -10 uppers straddled across central UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The UKMO fax for T72 hrs doesn’t show that shortwave though .

    Its crucial that clears east or east ne if the others go the same way .

    OMG the T120hrs ECM

    Nae bother...They just haven't seen it yet?:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM is a Massive difference to last Run ! Look at the difference In Snow cover on Monday! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    WTF . Thought I'd just have a quick check of the ecm for the potential snow Friday and OMG can't believe it . Please be right . ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Has the ECM been on the sauce? I say that because it's about to try and disrupt the AO once again

    ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossendale, 212 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/Snow/Storms
  • Location: Rossendale, 212 ASL

    Interesting enough when you read the MO outlooks it does hint at the ECM with staying cold in northern and central areas with more snow and in the extended  still goes for the easterly.  Does not surprise me and us northerners may not miss out yet but does look to be better for people further south.

    Edited by tvh3382
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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    17 minutes ago, Purga said:

    -10 850's incoming

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    Welcome back we were gonna miss you ! :laugh:

    Totally mate, to be honest the wife is starting to do my head in looking through the window every five mins, If it gets any worse ill have to let her in!!

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

    Everyone seems surprised. Which is strange because ultimately what the ECM is showing is plausible given the background signals. 

    Northern areas are really going to be getting it hard this first half of March. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Still cold next thursday :yahoo:

    :DAND friday

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Has the ECM been on the sauce? I say that because it's about to try and disrupt the AO once again

    ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

    Be interesting to see the ENS later . They flipped from a cold outlook to a milder outlook last week . Can they flip back to a cold outlook ?? ?

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: snow, blizzards, thunder snow, thunder and lightning, heat waves, tornadoes
  • Location: Chelmsford

    Incredible performance from the ECM. Expectations should be managed though. As someone said, it would surprise me if the ECM were the first model to pick up on the overwhelming cold retention. Don’t get me wrong I’m excited as much as the next person but more verification is required. I rarely post but the model watching and twist and turns of late has been truly fascinating. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
    Model moans, ramps and banter
    Regional discussions

    For more focused short-range model discussion:
    Short-range Model Discussion

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