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Paul

Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re welcome thanks. :)

It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

Astonishing turnaround ! :)

 

cheers Nick, a good spot by you, but yes indeed, secondary LP born out of disruption....Serves the parent LP right, mess the models around and you get disruptive kids! :crazy:

Edited by ajpoolshark

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re welcome thanks. :)

It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

Astonishing turnaround ! :)

 

A 'shortwave spoiler' for the mildies? Who'd a thunk it!:yahoo:

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43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensembles from this morning show there’s still a cluster with more trough disruption.

We’re not looking for big changes , small incremental changes between runs will do fine .

The mission is cold extension and snow retention ! :)

And then to increase chances for further snow , but crucial to get that trough disruption.

Whatever happens for some parts of the UK this cold spell has been exceptional perhaps not in terms of duration but  the depth of cold in terms of uppers might never be seen again this late in the season for many years to come.

Well, well, well what do you think of ECM 12z then Nick? Seems like the model was eavesdropping on you LOL! :laugh:

image.thumb.png.127f3b0306dd94887855899453d21031.pngimage.thumb.png.cd48e5793ca099139e8bcfa13d93fa73.pngimage.thumb.png.552d7e741d5bbfbd50eeae9534e330f8.png

image.thumb.png.b05397592bbee0d58633d536935aae97.png

Bring it on !:yahoo:

 

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ECM goes and asks what warm up remaining cold into following week. :) 

 

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Could someone explain in layman's terms what the shortwave would mean? Cheers

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Okay calm down folks including me! :D

Just one ECM run and the others don’t have this sort of upgrade .

Given the timeframes we won’t have long to wait to find out, the differences start very early .

 

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It is just a shame ECM has been so erratic of late and all the other output goes against this Op run, it will need to be repeated tomorrow before I even blink.:unsure2:

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Just now, Mucka said:

It is just a shame ECM has been so erratic of late and all the other output goes against this Op run, it will need to be repeated tomorrow before I even blink.:unsure2:

I cannot remember the last time the ECM picked up on a trend first TBH...which is a shame because this is a great run...keeps it cold right out to Wednesday next week so far

ECM0-168.GIF?28-0

-10 uppers straddled across central UK

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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO fax for T72 hrs doesn’t show that shortwave though .

Its crucial that clears east or east ne if the others go the same way .

OMG the T120hrs ECM

Nae bother...They just haven't seen it yet?:santa-emoji:

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ECM is a Massive difference to last Run ! Look at the difference In Snow cover on Monday! 

 

7AEB34C7-0DED-4D45-A219-4FAB02149133.png

2A7E08FB-C374-4034-8A36-2292C479B2EB.png

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WTF . Thought I'd just have a quick check of the ecm for the potential snow Friday and OMG can't believe it . Please be right . 😮

IMG_1845.PNG

IMG_1846.PNG

IMG_1847.PNG

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Has the ECM been on the sauce? I say that because it's about to try and disrupt the AO once again

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

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Interesting enough when you read the MO outlooks it does hint at the ECM with staying cold in northern and central areas with more snow and in the extended  still goes for the easterly.  Does not surprise me and us northerners may not miss out yet but does look to be better for people further south.

Edited by tvh3382

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17 minutes ago, Purga said:

-10 850's incoming

image.thumb.png.e95651f9705920f569f051144c751614.pngimage.thumb.png.ead1a01e05c0b7ebfde44e1d430c172c.png

Welcome back we were gonna miss you ! :laugh:

Totally mate, to be honest the wife is starting to do my head in looking through the window every five mins, If it gets any worse ill have to let her in!!

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Everyone seems surprised. Which is strange because ultimately what the ECM is showing is plausible given the background signals. 

Northern areas are really going to be getting it hard this first half of March. 

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Still cold next thursday :yahoo:

:DAND friday

image.thumb.png.8eb355f30b898bbdc4878abfa4b70774.png

 

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Has the ECM been on the sauce? I say that because it's about to try and disrupt the AO once again

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

Be interesting to see the ENS later . They flipped from a cold outlook to a milder outlook last week . Can they flip back to a cold outlook ?? 🙂

Edited by ICE COLD

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