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Model output discussion - the beast arrives

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re welcome thanks. :)

It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

Astonishing turnaround ! :)


A 'shortwave spoiler' for the mildies? Who'd a thunk it!:yahoo:

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensembles from this morning show there’s still a cluster with more trough disruption.

We’re not looking for big changes , small incremental changes between runs will do fine .

The mission is cold extension and snow retention ! :)

And then to increase chances for further snow , but crucial to get that trough disruption.

Whatever happens for some parts of the UK this cold spell has been exceptional perhaps not in terms of duration but  the depth of cold in terms of uppers might never be seen again this late in the season for many years to come.

Well, well, well what do you think of ECM 12z then Nick? Seems like the model was eavesdropping on you LOL! :laugh:



Bring it on !:yahoo:


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Just now, Mucka said:

It is just a shame ECM has been so erratic of late and all the other output goes against this Op run, it will need to be repeated tomorrow before I even blink.:unsure2:

I cannot remember the last time the ECM picked up on a trend first TBH...which is a shame because this is a great run...keeps it cold right out to Wednesday next week so far


-10 uppers straddled across central UK

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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO fax for T72 hrs doesn’t show that shortwave though .

Its crucial that clears east or east ne if the others go the same way .

OMG the T120hrs ECM

Nae bother...They just haven't seen it yet?:santa-emoji:

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Interesting enough when you read the MO outlooks it does hint at the ECM with staying cold in northern and central areas with more snow and in the extended  still goes for the easterly.  Does not surprise me and us northerners may not miss out yet but does look to be better for people further south.

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17 minutes ago, Purga said:

-10 850's incoming


Welcome back we were gonna miss you ! :laugh:

Totally mate, to be honest the wife is starting to do my head in looking through the window every five mins, If it gets any worse ill have to let her in!!

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Has the ECM been on the sauce? I say that because it's about to try and disrupt the AO once again


Be interesting to see the ENS later . They flipped from a cold outlook to a milder outlook last week . Can they flip back to a cold outlook ?? ?

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Incredible performance from the ECM. Expectations should be managed though. As someone said, it would surprise me if the ECM were the first model to pick up on the overwhelming cold retention. Don’t get me wrong I’m excited as much as the next person but more verification is required. I rarely post but the model watching and twist and turns of late has been truly fascinating. 

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