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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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Hirlam sends the first low on Thursday more North, other models have wanted to move it NW as it enters the channel, giving SW England/Wales etc into Ireland. Hirlam has other ideas and pushes it Northwards. Gem has been showing this reguarly but can we trust its progressive push? Fascinating oncemore this situation. 

hitrl.thumb.png.02fa86693bbf6c116c32e044af7db758.png 5a95d98b8c287_hirlam2.thumb.png.d89b478174c155164c95f6d4e0bafe7e.png  hirlam....thumb.png.c8e9dc4819bdc83a4a4e75aba71d55b1.png

Edited by Mark N
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5 minutes ago, Lee Jones said:

Keeping the cold but not as cold . A very slow, cloudy warm up by a degree or so every day until Monday (approx 5 degrees) when it will be too warm for any precipitation to be snow. Disaster !

Unless the trend continues.....

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 18z says no to the rash-mild inflow.

And lets quickly remind ourselves how well this suite (18z) has been modeling of late.

The spell has just gone up another notch!!!

To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?    

Edited by Youcan'tbecirrus
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Oddly enough a good few of the GEM ensembles were quite bullish on it staying cold earlier. Although GFS is better than GEM I sometimes think the GEMs ensemble suite are a bit better tbh. Could be wrong but I think I recall that they are actually run at quite a good resolution.

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2 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?    

That will certainly aid. @entrenched cold.

However-the track and form of emma(portuguese met)...

Can/is/will be modeled on different scales...and minor gradiants will have massive impacts...

Great one to watch...

And thats without mention of the potential dumping of snow in between!!!!

 

Lets have a [email protected] ens/supports!?.

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24 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Hirlam sends the first low on Thursday more North, other models have wanted to move it NW as it enters the channel, giving SW England/Wales etc into Ireland. Hirlam has other ideas and pushes it Northwards. Gem has been showing this reguarly but can we trust its progressive push? Fascinating oncemore this situation. 

hitrl.thumb.png.02fa86693bbf6c116c32e044af7db758.png 5a95d98b8c287_hirlam2.thumb.png.d89b478174c155164c95f6d4e0bafe7e.png  hirlam....thumb.png.c8e9dc4819bdc83a4a4e75aba71d55b1.png

I’d expect the amber warning to spread further East on thurs looking at that..

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5 minutes ago, Lee Jones said:

Hmm, BBC still going for the SW hit on Thursday with moving as far north as Yorkshire 15:00 on Friday. 

Tomorrow the wording of track and change likely mentioned @LPS 

east/west/north-exactions....

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If hat low carries on further east into the core of Iberia within the next 18-24 hours, we could be looking at a very different picture as to where it tracks, which could mean more of the UK continuing the resumption of cold and snow, as it will elongate more. A massive trend towards that even on the GFS, which for a few days has wanted to shunt the cold north. Notoriously hard to forecast indeed. 

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