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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM 12z rolling, and here's the state of play at T72:

    ECM1-72.GIF?27-0

    ECM0-72.GIF

    Firming up on the snow event for the south.  Still interested in the Met Office warning regarding freezing rain, but we just don't get enough data on ECM output to assess this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Silsden
  • Location: Silsden

    Keep hearing on forecasts that the next 48 hours will be the lowest temperatures with an increase in wind.Will this help the cold dig in and if so when will the models show a reaction?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM 12z rolling, and here's the state of play at T72:

    ECM1-72.GIF?27-0

    ECM0-72.GIF

    Firming up on the snow event for the south.  Still interested in the Met Office warning regarding freezing rain, but we just don't get enough data on ECM output to assess this.

    There's a ton of frozen rain on this one, central southern England!!

    Not looking forward to it at all.

    ECM looks like game over for cold at T120 - low pressure stuck to the SW

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    ec n France?

    Yes - the ec op over n France 

    anyway, the similarity ends there with the run bringing higher uppers and dp’s across the uk as per the previous run later on sat and into sun 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    18 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    We're still colder than the southern tip of Greenland then. LOL. Would be interested to see the 850's between T+48 and T+72. They 0ºC iso 850 must cross into the southern counties for a short period

    I may still get to use some more of my salt!

    image.thumb.png.28668441cbd72769b856f7f9bec62a7d.png  T54

    image.thumb.png.60e7c983ebc5fdc3556320a21f1389da.png t60

    image.thumb.png.6f53d0a7513ae720f226e0f17800d2f0.png T66

    I think these are the right times.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-850hpa/20180302-1500z.html

    Anyway throughout Thursday and Friday temperatures are at or just below freezing and dew points are below zero here in Southampton so it would still all be snow, even if the T850s do climb a little above zero for a time :)

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    We're still colder than the southern tip of Greenland then. LOL. Would be interested to see the 850's between T+48 and T+72. They 0ºC iso 850 must cross into the southern counties for a short period

    I may still get to use some more of my salt!

    So much ECM data on this site! 

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/temperature-850hpa/20180302-0000z.html

    0c 850 isotherm just north of the M4 at northernmost extent, resulting in freezing rain early Friday morning in the west country and Hampshire, before several hours of snow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    ECM 12z snow depth by Friday evening. I know some are not convinced by the totals but its the closest we as public get to seeing! 

     

    60D6D751-35D6-4485-9EFD-5C0B0732ECB2.png

    Edited by Mark N
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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    4 minutes ago, Mark N said:

    ECM 12z snow depth by Friday evening. I know some are not convinced by the totals but its the closest we as public get to seeing! 

     

    60D6D751-35D6-4485-9EFD-5C0B0732ECB2.png

    If only we lived on the east cost of Ireland :rofl::cold:boom:bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
    7 minutes ago, snowice said:

    If only we lived on the east cost of Ireland :rofl::cold:boom:bomb:

    Indeed. Icon has been very bullish on each run with parts of Ireland and Wales having the most too.

    GEM has much of England under snow Thurs and Fri but its low resolution for precipitation for our parts? ( Obviously we all want to believe the GEM ;) !

    17D7BE61-CE26-47CC-96C1-AA115E75EE39.png

    Edited by Mark N
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    re this comment

    Some fair points there. GFS trumped the lot including the great MOGREPS!! And it didn't overblow the low at all - it was spot on (I got that one wrong)

    I don't think we actually see MOGREPS do we?

    Of not then how it performed is how some have interpreted how Exeter have worded their forecasts I suspect. They 'may' not have followed what that model said, do we know for sure?

    There were a series of comments/tweets on MOGREPS over the past week - could have been "fake" of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    Genuinely surprised by the lack of any true HLB in the northern hemisphere so soon after a record SSW event ??

    CB63E93A-99C8-4950-8362-FC5F8A06C65C.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    7 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

    Is there a Scotland regionl thread? 

    Yes

    its in the regional area

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    I still think, although small and not the form horse, that we could see something aking to the GEM. Stays cold right to the end with more snow for many. 

    Bluearmy said about ECM being similar to GEM earlier on. Obviously it then diverges but clearly some uncertainty still. I’d say we’re still in with a fighting chance of something better than currently shown across the board. Let’s see what ENS show.

    hopefully GEM is on to something.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Once the cold air moves north during the weekend ECM shows a north-south split with colder air trying to push south at times & slightly milder air trying to push north 

    ECMOPEU12_96_2.thumb.png.359b10c6872cab2115912fa847ec642c.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.919b842203880b50b02b0af828fbca91.png

    ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.fc4c02d64d1dc7768cfa76df0c0b68e9.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.77a202b26af67daceedeb907f2e4551c.png

    Probably a continued risk of snow at times for higher ground in northern England and to lower levels in Scotland

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    5 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

    I still think, although small and not the form horse, that we could see something aking to the GEM. Stays cold right to the end with more snow for many. 

    Bluearmy said about ECM being similar to GEM earlier on. Obviously it then diverges but clearly some uncertainty still. I’d say we’re still in with a fighting chance of something better than currently shown across the board. Let’s see what ENS show.

    hopefully GEM is on to something.

     

    The GEM ensembles are interesting as well. A good few prolong things. 

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    54 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.28668441cbd72769b856f7f9bec62a7d.png  T54

    image.thumb.png.60e7c983ebc5fdc3556320a21f1389da.png t60

    image.thumb.png.6f53d0a7513ae720f226e0f17800d2f0.png T66

    I think these are the right times.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-850hpa/20180302-1500z.html

    Anyway throughout Thursday and Friday temperatures are at or just below freezing and dew points are below zero here in Southampton so it would still all be snow, even if the T850s do climb a little above zero for a time :)

    Just saw BBC forecast for Thursday. The band of rain/snow seems to be shunting westwards from France.Much of Sussex seems to escape now. I wonder if this westward trend will continue ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Low pressure dominates UKMO extended probably a mix of rain, sleet and snow the best of any drier weather looks to be in the south

    ukm2.2018030612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3b72c7e91a982fa318ddf3b978a32805.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
    Model moans, ramps and banter
    Regional discussions

    For more focused short-range model discussion:
    Short-range Model Discussion

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