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Paul

Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
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Message added by Paul

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Two basic questions re the models for those with far more weather grey matter than me:

1. is the northerly track of Friday's low simply down to the lack of blocking, especially given the lack of jet energy?
2. given the stunning and comparable synoptics to '87 & '91, what is the big difference/reason between the sudden-ish shift of that block and those from the historic spells?

Have a broad understanding of reading the charts just not enough (yet)...

Thanks

 

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ECM 12z rolling, and here's the state of play at T72:

ECM1-72.GIF?27-0

ECM0-72.GIF

Firming up on the snow event for the south.  Still interested in the Met Office warning regarding freezing rain, but we just don't get enough data on ECM output to assess this.

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The closest match to the ec n France at day 3 is the gem ..........

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The closest match to the ec n France at day 3 is the gem ..........

ec n France?

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Keep hearing on forecasts that the next 48 hours will be the lowest temperatures with an increase in wind.Will this help the cold dig in and if so when will the models show a reaction?

 

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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z rolling, and here's the state of play at T72:

ECM1-72.GIF?27-0

ECM0-72.GIF

Firming up on the snow event for the south.  Still interested in the Met Office warning regarding freezing rain, but we just don't get enough data on ECM output to assess this.

There's a ton of frozen rain on this one, central southern England!!

Not looking forward to it at all.

ECM looks like game over for cold at T120 - low pressure stuck to the SW

Edited by Man With Beard

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9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

ec n France?

Yes - the ec op over n France 

anyway, the similarity ends there with the run bringing higher uppers and dp’s across the uk as per the previous run later on sat and into sun 

 

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18 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

We're still colder than the southern tip of Greenland then. LOL. Would be interested to see the 850's between T+48 and T+72. They 0ºC iso 850 must cross into the southern counties for a short period

I may still get to use some more of my salt!

image.thumb.png.28668441cbd72769b856f7f9bec62a7d.png  T54

image.thumb.png.60e7c983ebc5fdc3556320a21f1389da.png t60

image.thumb.png.6f53d0a7513ae720f226e0f17800d2f0.png T66

I think these are the right times.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-850hpa/20180302-1500z.html

Anyway throughout Thursday and Friday temperatures are at or just below freezing and dew points are below zero here in Southampton so it would still all be snow, even if the T850s do climb a little above zero for a time :)

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

We're still colder than the southern tip of Greenland then. LOL. Would be interested to see the 850's between T+48 and T+72. They 0ºC iso 850 must cross into the southern counties for a short period

I may still get to use some more of my salt!

So much ECM data on this site! 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/temperature-850hpa/20180302-0000z.html

0c 850 isotherm just north of the M4 at northernmost extent, resulting in freezing rain early Friday morning in the west country and Hampshire, before several hours of snow. 

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ECM 12z snow depth by Friday evening. I know some are not convinced by the totals but its the closest we as public get to seeing! 

 

60D6D751-35D6-4485-9EFD-5C0B0732ECB2.png

Edited by Mark N

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4 minutes ago, Mark N said:

ECM 12z snow depth by Friday evening. I know some are not convinced by the totals but its the closest we as public get to seeing! 

 

60D6D751-35D6-4485-9EFD-5C0B0732ECB2.png

If only we lived on the east cost of Ireland :rofl::cold:boom:bomb:

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7 minutes ago, snowice said:

If only we lived on the east cost of Ireland :rofl::cold:boom:bomb:

Indeed. Icon has been very bullish on each run with parts of Ireland and Wales having the most too.

GEM has much of England under snow Thurs and Fri but its low resolution for precipitation for our parts? ( Obviously we all want to believe the GEM ;) !

17D7BE61-CE26-47CC-96C1-AA115E75EE39.png

Edited by Mark N

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

re this comment

Some fair points there. GFS trumped the lot including the great MOGREPS!! And it didn't overblow the low at all - it was spot on (I got that one wrong)

I don't think we actually see MOGREPS do we?

Of not then how it performed is how some have interpreted how Exeter have worded their forecasts I suspect. They 'may' not have followed what that model said, do we know for sure?

There were a series of comments/tweets on MOGREPS over the past week - could have been "fake" of course.

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Genuinely surprised by the lack of any true HLB in the northern hemisphere so soon after a record SSW event ??

CB63E93A-99C8-4950-8362-FC5F8A06C65C.png

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7 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

Is there a Scotland regionl thread? 

Yes

its in the regional area

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I still think, although small and not the form horse, that we could see something aking to the GEM. Stays cold right to the end with more snow for many. 

Bluearmy said about ECM being similar to GEM earlier on. Obviously it then diverges but clearly some uncertainty still. I’d say we’re still in with a fighting chance of something better than currently shown across the board. Let’s see what ENS show.

hopefully GEM is on to something.

 

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Once the cold air moves north during the weekend ECM shows a north-south split with colder air trying to push south at times & slightly milder air trying to push north 

ECMOPEU12_96_2.thumb.png.359b10c6872cab2115912fa847ec642c.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.919b842203880b50b02b0af828fbca91.png

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.fc4c02d64d1dc7768cfa76df0c0b68e9.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.77a202b26af67daceedeb907f2e4551c.png

Probably a continued risk of snow at times for higher ground in northern England and to lower levels in Scotland

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5 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

I still think, although small and not the form horse, that we could see something aking to the GEM. Stays cold right to the end with more snow for many. 

Bluearmy said about ECM being similar to GEM earlier on. Obviously it then diverges but clearly some uncertainty still. I’d say we’re still in with a fighting chance of something better than currently shown across the board. Let’s see what ENS show.

hopefully GEM is on to something.

 

The GEM ensembles are interesting as well. A good few prolong things. 

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54 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.28668441cbd72769b856f7f9bec62a7d.png  T54

image.thumb.png.60e7c983ebc5fdc3556320a21f1389da.png t60

image.thumb.png.6f53d0a7513ae720f226e0f17800d2f0.png T66

I think these are the right times.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-850hpa/20180302-1500z.html

Anyway throughout Thursday and Friday temperatures are at or just below freezing and dew points are below zero here in Southampton so it would still all be snow, even if the T850s do climb a little above zero for a time :)

Just saw BBC forecast for Thursday. The band of rain/snow seems to be shunting westwards from France.Much of Sussex seems to escape now. I wonder if this westward trend will continue ?

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