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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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The models are all over the shop with this low approaching from the south - the GFS has a stronger low than on its 6z run whereas the UKMO shifts the low south when compared to it's 12z run yesterday. We could play "pin the tail on Bertha" again, but I fear emotions would be too high in the winter! Imagine handing out the prize to the person who predicted the low would be over Scotland on Friday!

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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Steve, please explain why there would be no rain anywhere. Genuine question.

IMG_0625.PNG

Looks like starting as snow everywhere then turning to snow for the majority with freezing rain in the far south.

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1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Now this would be interesting

UW120-21.GIF?25-17   UW144-21.GIF?25-17

The low stalls and simply crawls along the English channel, with cold air still in place further  north there could be a lot of snow for the Midlands and southern Engalnd in particular, the north remains very cold and showery.

MOGREPS mate. The next low filled behind and keeps us in Easterlies hence the text updates

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Interesting to see GFS and UKMO having the low drift westwards, that keeps lower uppers over more of England and buries Ireland! With GFS starting that from a more northerly position and the UKMO further south it doesn’t appear to give a particularly different outcome. Because of the way the system interacts with or disengages from the jet?

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UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

The UKMO at T144 shows exactly how I'd like Friday's low to play it, with trough disruption causing it to stall in the channel. Some huge snow amounts from that, being picky though maybe uppers could be a degree or two lower down here. We are in continental air still though the uppers at T120 creep above freezing, threat of freezing rain for us there... before turning back to snow :D

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Steve, please explain why there would be no rain anywhere. Genuine question.

IMG_0625.PNG

Something doesn't look right about that chart. Clearly, with those uppers its 'wet wet wet' rather than 'snow patrol' in the South :D, but looking at the 500 chart I'm really surprised to see the milder air that far north!! 

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