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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

To honest the only charts anyone needs to look at now regarding Thursday/Friday snow event in the south are the Ukmo fax charts and they paint a very interesting picture indeed with front staying in the channel throughout the two days

Agreed, very interesting. Short term upgrade for those below the m4 but away from the coast.

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So the UK MetO app states snow from Thursday through Saturday. I guess that app uses MOGREPS. Woke up happy with that weather warning! ?

The GFS, ECM and UKMO 0Z, plus BBC Meto Group all going for less snow and a warm up. Very depressing! ☹️

i don’t think I have ever seen such a divergence between BBC and UK MetO!

Someone is going to look pretty stupid/silly by the weekend unless we get corrections within the next T24-T48. Which way will it go? ?

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7 minutes ago, Stevie B said:

So the UK MetO app states snow from Thursday through Saturday. I guess that app uses MOGREPS. Woke up happy with that weather warning! ?

The GFS, ECM and UKMO 0Z, plus BBC Meto Group all going for less snow and a warm up. Very depressing! ☹️

i don’t think I have ever seen such a divergence between BBC and UK MetO!

Someone is going to look pretty stupid/silly by the weekend unless we get corrections within the next T24-T48. Which way will it go? ?

You wouldn’t have seen the divergence in the past because Met supplies the Beeb. 

The difference is no surprise considering the complicated weather world the BI are in 

 

In these cases Fax charts are always best

Edited by Banbury
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42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Conflicting messages in here this morning - I can only post what I see, which is that the milder air is making less progress on Friday, but more progress by Sunday, according to latest models combined. So in addition to the snow for today/tomorrow which will be a bit hit and miss, some snow more generally for the south on Thursday, lots of snow for the south and Midlands on Friday, snow for north of the M4 on Saturday and then Sunday it's starting to get pushed further north still - a slow thaw following behind these fronts. Can't see a return to the deep cold next week. GFS/ECM seem pretty much on the same page with all this.

Would like to have seen a fax for T96/108 - to see what they do with the front

awaiting the spreads to see how keen the eps are to take the jet more east than ne at the end of the weekend 

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12 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

A lot of IMBY posts this morning. Huge upgrade for Snow and Blizzards for SW this morning for Thurs/Fri. BBC now fully on board and stating snow to continue into Saturday. Why the negativity?

 

 

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Because the graphics on their website don't match what they are saying then.  I checked for my location this morning and I was underwhelmed by the forecast.

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This may aswell be named the Friday low thread. Great discussion ... back to the regionals then ?

Charts like these on the doorstep... imagine the windchill from that. Plus anywhere that catches the showers, it's going to be blowing like crazy in the strength of that wind 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps Spreads keep the interest going on just how far north any breakdown gets. Maybe won’t get that far past the midlands. (And if that’s right then perhaps not even that far)

Let's hope it's the English Channel :)

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps Spreads keep the interest going on just how far north any breakdown gets. Maybe won’t get that far past the midlands. (And if that’s right then perhaps not even that far)

Yes and looking at the ensembles the op is one of the warmest solutions for quite a lot of the run.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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22 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

This may aswell be named the Friday low thread. Great discussion ... back to the regionals then ?

Charts like these on the doorstep... imagine the windchill from that. Plus anywhere that catches the showers, it's going to be blowing like crazy in the strength of that wind 

 

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It’s model output discussion. The one thing on the fairly near time modelling that still has no real consistency or defined track is the Friday low. Of course it’s going to be discussed. ??‍♀️

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25 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

This may aswell be named the Friday low thread. Great discussion ... back to the regionals then ?

Charts like these on the doorstep... imagine the windchill from that. Plus anywhere that catches the showers, it's going to be blowing like crazy in the strength of that wind 

 

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I imagine this is being discussed in the short term thread by knocker - he loves a deep cold pool !

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After flipping last night the 00z London ECM ens is back to how it was previously with the change to less cold air from the 1st into 2nd as London goes from around -15 to 0 in 24hrs after the mean hovers around -3 before dropping towards -5 at the end

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes and looking at the ensembles the op is one of the warmest solutions for quite a lot of the run.

 

 

Yes, this morning's 0z run shows a noticable dip after friday coinciding with precipitation spikes, suggesting a stalling of the push of milder uppers - hopefully to the snowy benefit of as many folks as possible! Compare the shift below

0z                                                                   18z (yesterday)

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 The trend thereafter is to retain the colder uppers.

BTW - here I am joining in the agonising over the breakdown whilst outside my window in Sussex a few miles from the coast, it's -3C outside an heavily snowing ! Beautiful in the here and now and I intend to get out and enjoy it today :D

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If people like extremes you should move down here .

Last night -6 c today +2 tonight -2 tomorrow morning snow then warmer and Thursday +15 !

Anyway in terms of the low I think we’ll have to wait till within T48 hrs and even then the extent of the northwards push could still be revised 50+ miles either way.

Its great fun watching this develop as a neutral but I can understand the frayed nerves of members in the south .

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Should be noted that the extended eps mean has no interest in bringing back any proper cold - Scotland just about keeps the -5c isotherm out to the 12-13th

there is some indication of an Icelandic wedge but I doubt that will be snowy useful in March unless we keep the flow w-e to our south rather than the increasing. Sw/ne 

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Finally coming to a consensus on the 00z GFS ensembles it appears, with cold air hanging on for another day. Many ensemble members show maximums around freezing on Saturday now, can we also get Sunday to join in with the cold? I'm not getting my hopes up but fingers crossed....

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Should be noted that the extended eps mean has no interest in bringing back any proper cold - Scotland just about keeps the -5c isotherm out to the 12-13th

there is some indication of an Icelandic wedge but I doubt that will be snowy useful in March unless we keep the flow w-e to our south rather than the increasing. Sw/ne 

Was just going to add this!

Looks like by the end of the weekend all of the deep cold is completely mixed out and back well away from the UK. Not turning very mild, just not cold either. Not really sure where we head from here, but i'll be looking for spring-like weather once we are done with this week. Nothing on the horizon in the first week of March, and it'll be a bit late for anything substantial after that.

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15 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

It’s model output discussion. The one thing on the fairly near time modelling that still has no real consistency or defined track is the Friday low. Of course it’s going to be discussed. ??‍♀️

Ofcourse it is, there's no doubt about that... but for the past few days, it's practically all that's been spoken about and that'll be the case til the end of the week. Sorry, not wanting to be off topic or pedantic. It's just making for poorer reading for a lot of members when we have such a great set-up and week ahead 

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1 minute ago, Ruzzi said:

Ofcourse it is, there's no doubt about that... but for the past few days, it's practically all that's been spoken about and that'll be the case til the end of the week. Sorry, not wanting to be off topic or pedantic. It's just making for poorer reading for a lot of members when we have such a great set-up and week ahead 

With the complexity and uncertainty of Fridays low it is pretty much still in the realms of long range even if only a couple of days away, if we cannot get past the outcome of that low all else beyond for now becomes a bit meaningless. Unusual yes, but it is how it is for now.

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