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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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The differences between ukmo and gfs at 120 of how they model the low is huge. Still liking the ukmo. At no point does positive 850's get into the uk on the ukmo. Gfs sending the low further nw. This was sending it initially ne, then on later runs north and now north west. 

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Edited by That ECM
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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The differences between ukmo and gfs at 120 of how the model the low is huge. Still liking the ukmo.

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Yep , the elongation of the UKmet too 

Edited by Raythan
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38 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The differences between ukmo and gfs at 120 of how they model the low is huge. Still liking the ukmo. At no point does positive 850's get into the uk on the ukmo. Gfs sending the low further nw. This was sending it initially ne, then on later runs north and now north west. 

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The south coast & Cornwall would have something to say about that;

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UW120-7.thumb.gif.82cb3b7e7f41d3cc2f8a9b797a204e81.gif

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Are we any wiser end of week,gfs looks completely wrong in its track of the low.

UKmo. bit more sensible on how a low would track  when it engages frigid air. in its path

 still favour blizzards in South before it retreats away

 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Thurs and Fri starting to look more like a SW event rather than a south of England one this morning, the low just stops it’s eastwad progression. Hoping that changes today!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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This extract (minus a few changes for the UK) is from my latest post in my blog.

http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/europe-on-long-term-26th-feb.html

"The GWO is currently in a negative trend. There are two options, the FT and MT torques increase, which will stabilise the GWO, like the below chart is starting to show. Or the other option is that the FT and MT torques go back to decreasing in a few days, and send the GWO into the low AAM Phases, which favours a +NAO setup. Many forecasters are favouring the latter option, so is the NWP guidance, but the former option is still a possibility with some torque data showing that to become reality. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.

EPS shows the MJO moving into Phase 2, before weakening into Phase 3. Phase 3 + 10 days equals a +NAO, or a more zonal Atlantic setup. This favours more snowfall for the Northern Alps/more precipitation for the UK, but GEFS shows the MJO weakening before it enters Phase 3.

EC46 like most models, is showing a big -NAO drop around the end of the month, that supports more cold for the UK. This -NAO pattern persists until mid March, and then stays mostly neutral into April. The ec46 AO forecast shows a similar result. CFS in a rare move, agrees with EC46 on both the AO and NAO.

GEFS and CFS longer term, show no signs of strengthening the polar vortex. The recent SSW is currently allowing a -AO/-NAO pattern to take hold until Mid March. The Stratosphere will probably play less influence after that time.

So the next 2-3 weeks will be guided by cold in Europe and the -NAO in the Atlantic. Beyond Mid March, we may see a +NAO setup start to form, under pressure from the AAM if it stays negative, and it may just generally occur also due to background factors like the sea-land gradient and the weakening yet still observable Nina base state."

Here is the referenced chart of the EC46 NAO....

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CFS as stated, looks very similar, which is interesting as it shows long term models agreeing on a forecast, that shows a higher degree of accuracy.

What we long term forecasters are looking to, is not the SSW driven medium term forecast, but the longer term one that is more likely to be centered around the Pacific.

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Very progressive ECm at t96 up to its usual tricks again when it’s struggling to work out how the low will interact once it engages the bitterly cold air .

Dense cold air won’t just get pushed away like that,look at the archives ECM before showing these charts:gathering:

Saveing these charts to compare to the final output

Bin again anyone for this run is my conclusion

 

:gathering: :acute::db:

Edited by SLEETY
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ECM brings in milder upper air by 96hrs compared with the 12z. Bit of a shift towards the GFS but not quite the whole hog. I think we have 24 hours until thurs into friday is resolved. 

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7 minutes ago, MKN said:

ECM brings in milder upper air by 96hrs compared with the 12z. Bit of a shift towards the GFS but not quite the whole hog. I think we have 24 hours until thurs into friday is resolved. 

I would say more like the ukmo Low stopped in its tracks. Ireland would be hit hard if this was to come off. Liking the trend of ukmo and ecm. IF gfs is being a bit keen with low then it could make further moves towards the other two as it has already from previous runs. Yet again ecm increases the strength of the block to the nw.

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Edited by That ECM
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1 hour ago, AWD said:

The south coast & Cornwall would have something to say about that;

UW96-7.thumb.gif.b9187e1a1d5cbe05c90fb9f40c56f161.gif

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Indeed incredibly hard for the southern half to look at the charts this morning.

Clearance of cold is fairly rapid here in the south hopefully we're see something wintry before everything wintry is swept away passed the m4.

Still a potent blast so best for fair few years.

Just disappointed but then it is spring soon so it's to be expected.

But the models have done extremely well modelling this spell.

Anyway it might change for the south if we're lucky.

A northeasterly would be excellent.

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7 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

People have a habit of saying bin if they don't like an output. Never saw bin being said once if it paints a snowy picture. 

I don't think the models are wrong I do think the breakdown for the south has been well advertised by the models for couple of days now.

 

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5 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

People have a habit of saying bin if they don't like an output. Never saw bin being said once if it paints a snowy picture. 

Totally agree....not to mentiin the fact that the GFS ince again picked up and ran with this run after run, whilst the ECM was having none of it.

 

I dont care what the stats apparently show, but the GFS has been head and shoulders above the other models this winter, its no surprise that the GFS is the model that is the "default" model of choice when coming to sites such as this one.

This will be nearly an all rain event in the SE and a snow to rain event in the SW...expect to see the UKMO change thier wording on their 3-5 day outlook today removing the "uncertainty" aspect and mentioning the dreaded rain word...or maybe freezing rain.

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5 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Totally agree....not to mentiin the fact that the GFS ince again picked up and ran with this run after run, whilst the ECM was having none of it.

 

I dont care what the stats apparently show, but the GFS has been head and shoulders above the other models this winter, its no surprise that the GFS is the model that is the "default" model of choice when coming to sites such as this one.

This will be nearly an all rain event in the SE and a snow to rain event in the SW...expect to see the UKMO change thier wording on their 3-5 day outlook today removing the "uncertainty" aspect and mentioning the dreaded rain word...or maybe freezing rain.

Seriously? You think they'll change/remove the word uncertainty? This lot will have increased it not lessened it imo 

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Edited by That ECM
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22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Very progressive ECm at t96 up to its usual tricks again when it’s struggling to work out how the low will interact once it engages the bitterly cold air .

Dense cold air won’t just get pushed away like that,look at the archives ECM before showing these charts:gathering:

Saveing these charts to compare to the final output

Bin again anyone for this run is my conclusion

 

:gathering: :acute::db:

It really can be pushed away like that.... you might not want to see it but it can happen and it has happened before. 

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6 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Totally agree....not to mentiin the fact that the GFS ince again picked up and ran with this run after run, whilst the ECM was having none of it.

 

I dont care what the stats apparently show, but the GFS has been head and shoulders above the other models this winter, its no surprise that the GFS is the model that is the "default" model of choice when coming to sites such as this one.

This will be nearly an all rain event in the SE and a snow to rain event in the SW...expect to see the UKMO change thier wording on their 3-5 day outlook today removing the "uncertainty" aspect and mentioning the dreaded rain word...or maybe freezing rain.

GFS is used by sites such at this due to cost and level of data available, no other reason  

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UKMO disrupts the low and takes the centre through the channel

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this is what we want to see if it's an increased risk of snowfall rather than rain you want to see further south.

EC and GFS both take the low west under the high and the centre ends up over Ireland.

far from decided yet !

 

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ECM 00Z again sends a snow-filled front from south to north on Friday, only the far south coast + south west look marginal. Cold continues for the north (and probably Midlands) thereafter - breakdown only possibly affecting the south.

But will it work out like that? Could still go down to T24.

Edited by Man With Beard
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13 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Totally agree....not to mentiin the fact that the GFS ince again picked up and ran with this run after run, whilst the ECM was having none of it.

 

I dont care what the stats apparently show, but the GFS has been head and shoulders above the other models this winter, its no surprise that the GFS is the model that is the "default" model of choice when coming to sites such as this one.

This will be nearly an all rain event in the SE and a snow to rain event in the SW...expect to see the UKMO change thier wording on their 3-5 day outlook today removing the "uncertainty" aspect and mentioning the dreaded rain word...or maybe freezing rain.

Why are the UKmet going to remove anything based on the op run of the gfs :gathering:

Far as I know they glimpse at the gfs outputs but don’t use them in their forecasts .

Anyway  good luck to your forecast for the end of the week

Huge differences from all the models still this morning t

Always this problem when low pressure engages the bitterly cold air,favoured solution is always that they are too progressive and the final outcome will be the low failing to make it far enough Northwards,with maybe just the Sw getting the blizzards .

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44 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Totally agree....not to mentiin the fact that the GFS ince again picked up and ran with this run after run, whilst the ECM was having none of it.

 

I dont care what the stats apparently show, but the GFS has been head and shoulders above the other models this winter, its no surprise that the GFS is the model that is the "default" model of choice when coming to sites such as this one.

This will be nearly an all rain event in the SE and a snow to rain event in the SW...expect to see the UKMO change thier wording on their 3-5 day outlook today removing the "uncertainty" aspect and mentioning the dreaded rain word...or maybe freezing rain.

If you think the GFS has it naild okay.... but most reasonable people don't think this is a done deal either way. That's probably the most reasonable positon this morning 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It really can be pushed away like that.... you might not want to see it but it can happen and it has happened before. 

Exactly, whether a cold or hot block either can be punted out in a flash. In continental areas yes it’s more difficult to move the seasonal areas of high pressure but not in the uk. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the breakdown accelerated into Thursday and push even further north and west as that is clearly the trend.

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