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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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Gfs started with the low further south of then the previous run but then does what it always does when it loses the plot and overdeepens the low and sends it into island. 

Edit. 

120ukmo fax looks good with the front occluded all the way out past the southeast corner which means all snow 

Edited by Tom Jarvis
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1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

One too many for the gfs on the pub run I think. It'll probably wake up in the morning and see the 18z out put and think OMG what did I do last night.

I hope this aint a new trend. :unsure2:

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I have to say this is looking like a very strange set up!

On iPad so can’t link to the UKMO fax chart but that takes the low north then nw with some trough disruption to its east which stops the milder air from getting much further than the south coast.

I think we’re seeing the problems modeling this with it not actually moving through on the jet but hanging around and slowly then lifting towards Ireland .

All the main models tonight do send some energy eastwards . The ECM and UKMO cleanly allowing the second runner in the Channel, the GFS thinks about it but doesn’t eject the shortwave energy cleanly.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I have to say this is looking like a very strange set up!

On iPad so can’t link to the UKMO fax chart but that takes the low north then nw with some trough disruption to its east which stops the milder air from getting much further than the south coast.

I think we’re seeing the problems modeling this with it not actually moving through on the jet but hanging around and slowly then lifting towards Ireland .

All the main models tonight do send some energy eastwards . The ECM and UKMO cleanly allowing the second runner in the Channel, the GFS thinks about it but doesn’t eject the shortwave energy cleanly.

 

Ireland says ‘yes’ to having low move north from modelled location as gfs

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Sorry to say folks but don’t expect any answers to the low for a few more runs.

I’ve been on here close to 14 years ! And I really can’t remember this type of set up before.

Perhaps my memories not what it was , perhaps some of the other old timers might remember something similar! :cc_confused:

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Sorry to say folks but don’t expect any answers to the low for a few more runs.

I’ve been on here close to 14 years ! And I really can’t remember this type of set up before.

Perhaps my memories not what it was , perhaps some of the other old timers might remember something similar! :cc_confused:

Totally agree. It's bamboozling me.

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Sorry to say folks but don’t expect any answers to the low for a few more runs.

I’ve been on here close to 14 years ! And I really can’t remember this type of set up before.

Perhaps my memories not what it was , perhaps some of the other old timers might remember something similar! :cc_confused:

As an old timer I am getting more confused than the models. All I know is that it changes every 6 hours.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Sorry to say folks but don’t expect any answers to the low for a few more runs.

I’ve been on here close to 14 years ! And I really can’t remember this type of set up before.

Perhaps my memories not what it was , perhaps some of the other old timers might remember something similar! :cc_confused:

It looks like the low is being pulled from the southern jet heading into Spain and the easterly weaker jet to the north of it. 

I think it will be weaker than projected and further south come the time but it’s a headache that’s for sure.

A5D9458D-D653-4D30-9809-A335EA710498.jpeg

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43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

T120 FAX is ecm rather than ukmo 

Tonight's gfs 18z looks very similar to last night's ecm 12z. However, tonight's ecm does not turn into the shocker of last night's run. Many reasons to stay positive for long term cold tonight. 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s like the attempted breakdown sponsored by the Twilight Zone! :D

No you're quite right Nick. In my 45 years of weather obsession, I've never seen anything like this, though of course there weren't models back then! Obviously this SSW is so unprecedented that it's having some very weird effects. The models are doing what they always do & calculating stuff, whether the normal rules apply at the moment I wouldn't guess. I'm not usually without an opinion, but if I was asked now what the weather might be like on Friday, I would genuinely have to say I don't know!

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For those bamboozled look at the jetstream - It is the returning jet that assists in powering the low - the easterly is a victim of its own success.

GFSOPEU18_87_21.thumb.png.874de513abcf0c30a2a9e54bd5eea070.png

Though from this point the jet is a mess so nothing is sure yet....

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My advice is don't let the Gfs 18z breakdown to less cold spoil your enjoyment of what will be a severe wintry spell..the like of which we haven't seen for a good few years and there is time for next weekend onwards to look much better again, hopefully in the morning!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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