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Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Very GOOD ICON RUN! 

I shouldn't post a snow chart but hey we have a right to be excited. 

 

ICON Friday.PNG

Is that ICON 12z?

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12z ICON keeps it all snow until 1pm on Friday for virtually all of the south and south-west

iconeu-1-120-0.thumb.png.453a9c232a9d1ad946bd14858928f951.pngiconeu-2-120-0.thumb.png.b038ea35bc027c4e8639f61d9d9198e3.png

Could be a major event this would significant snow and blizzards possible

Edited by Summer Sun
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Is that ICON 12z?

Yep :yahoo:. Sorry poor cropping of image on my part haha. 

Edited by MattTarrant
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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Why the scepticism? In Dec 10 the temp rose here from -7c under endless blocked and cold conditions to +10c in less than a day. With a NNE trajectory the cold could be brushed aside very rapidly. That being said still plenty to play for. 

It's just against the grain at the moment with other models now preferring the low to stall to the SW before being pushed east. NMM doesn't follow that script.

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ICON keeps it all snow until 1pm on Friday for virtually all of the south and south-west

iconeu-1-120-0.thumb.png.453a9c232a9d1ad946bd14858928f951.pngiconeu-2-120-0.thumb.png.b038ea35bc027c4e8639f61d9d9198e3.png

Could be a major event this would significant snow and blizzards possible

Yup ICON shows a very complex evolution and I would agree that it would all fall as snow upto 1pm Friday, surface cold is pushed northwards so would perhaps turn to sleet or freezing rain in the far south, but staying as snow elsewhere with a weakening weather front as the uppers mix out.

Would be quite the event for many if that came off.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Ukmo t96. Block  north west looks stronger I think but I might just be willing it:D

IMG_0624.PNG

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Midweek is looking very pleasant on the Gfs 12z!..sub 505 dam anyone?:shok::D:cold-emoji:

12_72_ukthickness.png

12_72_mslp850.png

12_72_uk2mtmp.png

12_72_preciptype.png

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

No definitive answer provided by ICON - still absolutely touch and go. Best case scenario IMBY remains snow showers on Tues/Weds and then blizzard on Thurs/Fri with cold air hanging on. Worst case remains dry through Tues/Weds and then rain on Thursday night into Friday. Many scenarios in between.

You'll forgive me if I declare that if the dry to rain scenario comes to pass I am likely to shut down for the winter and retire until November such will be the disappointment. A background scenario like this that fails to deliver, after years of waiting, will be the end of me even given the potential chance for more snow down the line this month. Never ever contemplate a move to lowland SW England if you like opportunities for frost and snow.

Fingers crossed for a decent evolution this week and that I'll still be online come Saturday. :-)

I feel your pain Catacol, But I think there will be plenty of chances this coming week.

We have this tomorrow

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

This Tuesday

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

 

 

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First of the 12z's complete ICON is bitterly cold until the end of the week with a significant snow event for the south and south-west still very possible late Thursday and into Friday

Less cold air then arrives through the weekend and into the 1st full week of March but ground temps still on the chilly side

tempresult_ndn7.gif

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UKMO looks quite a bit further south with the low at T96

UW96-21.GIF?25-16

Edited by Mike Poole
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Well no matter what , we have seen unprecedented things in the past two weeks and that’s not just these stellar Synoptics for this week , a @Tamara ramp of a GFS 12z , posters basically hacksawing the country in half North/South causing a netweather independence referendum and now @Catacol’toy throwing’ even though our nation won yesterday for the first time since 1962/63 ( see what I did there)

anyway the beast was nailed by the models and now I’m facing 5 weather warnings including an amber ! 

Stay safe guys !

Mother Nature sharpens her teeth this week 

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The speed of retrogression lots slower around Greenland and it's baby steps to the MOGREPS solution I spoke about yesterday. Things are getting there people.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO looks quit a bit further south with the low at T96

UW96-21.GIF?25-16

Agreed, Greenland high is beefing up a little and closing the gate a bit

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Yes Steve, things getting very interesting again were seeing a slow shift towards what was expected 3 days ago

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On a more enjoyable note this weather event has improved my health... 😱 

I now get at up at 6am every morning before I was very lazy so just shows how enjoyable weather can be and how much excitement has came with this beast! 

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Remember the MOGREPS solution of a low skating along the channel. Look at the UKMO 144. We're nearly there. The MET have called this very well so far

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Steve, please explain why there would be no rain anywhere. Genuine question.

IMG_0625.PNG

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Look at the 850hPa...

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