Model output discussion - the beast arrives

[Timmytour]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol didn't you think it was going to go on for another week?

In my experience Frosty tends to comment on what the models are showing. Not so long ago they were showing it going on for another week at least. I really don't see the problem?

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

In my experience Frosty tends to comment on what the models are showing. Not so long ago they were showing it going on for another week at least. I really don't see the problem?

It's just that i said it will be over soon and got laughed at. I was commenting on what i could see in the models too

Edited March 2, 2018 by lassie23

[bluearmy]

Checking back at the eps clusters from the morning and we are looking at something potentially notable in two weeks time re amplification. We have seen a few gfs ops playing with something around mid month, expect more 

[craigore]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening Guys 

Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground -

have a great year !

Current

 

favourite

 

See you next year

S

Been a blast. 

Take care.

All the best see you 2018/19

[Stuie]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

If the ensembles are similar in pattern that suggests the op has the set up too far west.

So low track would correct further east. 

Next week has some `legs` Nick. Great to have something to focus on in the upcoming `lull` of a few days.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Next week has some `legs` Nick. Great to have something to focus on in the upcoming `lull` of a few days.

Perhaps a northerly toppler towards the end of next week but most of next week looks markedly less cold / milder than currently / recently with some spells of rain pushing north and any sleet or snow becoming restricted to northern hills / mountains..possibly staying rather cold across the far north and then as our trough gets shunted eastwards, colder air from the nw / n spreading south but that could change. 

[cobby]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

In my experience Frosty tends to comment on what the models are showing. Not so long ago they were showing it going on for another week at least. I really don't see the problem?

Models show trends not forecasts and are never 100% accurate or we would only need them once a week.I enjoy seeing all the interpertations.This last week or so has been fun

[bluearmy]

Many parts of the country below 528 dam on the new day 5 fax shows it will remain chilly next week. Away from elevation it’s just meh, given the time of year. With elevation, you could well see more snow falling and the Scots certainly stay in the game though again, lowland areas struggling for any snowfall.

 

[Daniel*]

I’d say winter itself is not quite done with us, we won’t be seeing powder snow certainly not in S having it in the capital for the last five days has been phenomenal and truly strange. Jet stream seems to remain well south not surprising following SSW, it looks fairly cyclonic too meaning there’s going to be a risk of a marginal snow event even in south. As lows engage with cold air at times, tomorrow the cold spell lingers in Scotland and Northern England. A thaw setting in for most areas right now no drip, I’ll truly be sad, to see this go imminent now. People being happy brings out the best in people snow, I’d say people rally together, the pace of life slows down and in London that’s great. I know for many they’ve waited for 5 years like myself, I’m hopeful we won’t need to be waiting that long in winters ahead.

[Rollo]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’d say winter itself is not quite done with us, we won’t be seeing powder snow certainly not in S having it in the capital for the last five days has been phenomenal and truly strange. Jet stream seems to remain well south not surprising following SSW, it looks fairly cyclonic too meaning there’s going to be a risk of a marginal snow event even in south. As lows engage with cold air at times, tomorrow the cold spell lingers in Scotland and Northern England. A thaw setting in for most areas right now no drip, I’ll truly be sad, to see this go imminent now. People being happy brings out the best in people snow, I’d say people rally together, the pace of life slows down and in London that’s great. I know for many they’ve waited for 5 years like myself, I’m hopeful we won’t need to be waiting that long in winters ahead.

Nice post Daniel,snow does indeed bring the best out of people, I certain Bly concur that it has been a long time ng wait even up her in the North East but ell worth waiting for,lets raise a glass for the next freeze!

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Checking back at the eps clusters from the morning and we are looking at something potentially notable in two weeks time re amplification. We have seen a few gfs ops playing with something around mid month, expect more 

Yep been keeping an eye on that low in the Atlantic potentially undercutting in days 9-10. We are due for the 2nd tropspheric pulse of the SSW...

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Yep been keeping an eye on that low in the Atlantic potentially undercutting in days 9-10. We are due for the 2nd tropspheric pulse of the SSW...

Oh no more snowy  I'm done. 

[Daniel*]

41 minutes ago, Rollo said:

Nice post Daniel,snow does indeed bring the best out of people, I certain Bly concur that it has been a long time ng wait even up her in the North East but ell worth waiting for,lets raise a glass for the next freeze!

Yep, worth the long wait!

I had some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen on two occasions complete whiteout and horizontal one from a ‘snow storm’ that passed through heart of London made the papers. It dumped 2” in 10 minutes here, and then a streamer torrential snow which caused chaos on roads fortunate it occurred overnight, they were totally caught out. Interestingly central areas had most snow in London much of it seemed to sublimate, I blame the ridiculously low dew points. Today, a few Cm which filled places which went bare by wind, wintriest it’s been all week so it went out in a high! Compacted snow and ice in the city centre and then fresh top ups every day in London since Monday is really not a thing and for it to be March, wow. 

I note GFS 18Z is interested in a very marginal event, evaporative cooling essential sleet I’d presume for most. However, it has been very cold possibility this may increase chance of precipitation being snow a little. The 0C isotherm never leaves the UK through its entirity 16 days. Therefore snow is always going to be possible somewhere. 

Edited March 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Paul_1978]

Just a random chart from the 18z, but it’s all looking very slack. Hardly any tight isobars to be seen, and no Atlantic domination in the foreseeable whatsoever it would seem. 

[Eastnorthwest]

Morning each, have we enjoyed this week or what?

The beast came it conquered, and now because of the reverse in  wind direction it has moved West and slightly north ,but I have to say  it's been the best cold spell since 09/10 and we have seen the most dramatic scenes since 1991 in regards drifting due to the extreme cold keeping the snow type drift able  for when the high winds hit the UK,

But as always our weather is ever changing and now this morning here the temperature has crept above freezing for the first time in 6 days and we in the south will see according to the models less cold by day conditions for next 4 days as it looks we may slip back to what we had for most of the winter with pressure rising again over the azo res which will keep as very unsettled at times in the coming 2 weeks with no more severe cold or also no spring like weather for long either

The beast came ,conquered  then left us ,and now we have a bit of a mess to clear up 

Stay safe on the roads over the weekend 

[tinybill]

1 hour ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Morning each, have we enjoyed this week or what?

The beast came it conquered, and now because of the reverse in  wind direction it has moved West and slightly north ,but I have to say  it's been the best cold spell since 09/10 and we have seen the most dramatic scenes since 1991 in regards drifting due to the extreme cold keeping the snow type drift able  for when the high winds hit the UK,

But as always our weather is ever changing and now this morning here the temperature has crept above freezing for the first time in 6 days and we in the south will see according to the models less cold by day conditions for next 4 days as it looks we may slip back to what we had for most of the winter with pressure rising again over the azo res which will keep as very unsettled at times in the coming 2 weeks with no more severe cold or also no spring like weather for long either

The beast came ,conquered  then left us ,and now we have a bit of a mess to clear up 

Stay safe on the roads over the weekend 

i  know  its a  long way off  in fantasy  land  but  after   312  hr  the gfs is saying dont put the snow gear away  yet

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z is interesting with a return of winter further north and in the mid / longer term further south, the Ecm / Gem on the other hand are Meh...anyway, the beast is dead, it will be turning less cold / milder from the s / sw, even the far north looks like struggling badly to hold on to the minus 5 uppers through next week!

[bluearmy]

As you were into fi with amplification and wedges. Those who can’t bear to give up on winter will have plenty to keep their interest. Dare I say even @Steve Murr ‘s adieu till next winter may turn out to be a bit previous!  but to stress again, ‘it won’t be like the past week has been away from elevation or the midlands north’  - perspective needed into mid March. 

[karlos1983]

Well after a truly epic 48 hours and what had been massive and overdue reward for the past few months constant model watching, not to mention the years of  snow drought for the south west, where do we go now?

looks at the moment we will be stuck in a bit of a “meh cold” pattern. Not cold enough for low level snow, with no real sign of spring at all. 

Pretty good agreement at D6 from the big 3. 

Hints in low res that we might see something colder further down the line and the ecm ens probably reflect that with some members going cold again.

Not expecting anything like what we’ve had over the past week though, it’s been quite exceptional! I’ve had almost 20cm of snow, hours of ice which encased my car, house windows and anything else it touched, never seen anything quite like it!! I know we will be talking about it in my regional thread for years to come.  

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by karlos1983

[winterof79]

I am sure a certain young lady from the METO suggested that they were closely watching the heights to our NE influencing once more.GEFS smelling out something

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended's take on the 10th it has a deep low heading towards Ireland giving plenty of precipitation for all but northern Scotland

[Summer Sun]

The ECM op for London has gone for a brief period of milder air on the 10th for 2 runs in a row now (12z yesterday and this mornings 00z) whilst still on the mild side of the mean the mean has now moved a bit closer to this option

12z yesterday

00z today

Edited March 3, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

Morning all, well that was a fun week for the south, still going in in the north!!

ECM clusters - story for D8-D10 is generally unsettled, bit unsure how cool/mild it would be but a return to deep cold looking unlikely:

[nick sussex]

No don’t do it!

These models trying to keep me from getting on with other things ! 

The GFS 06 hrs run takes low pressure ne in towards the UK. The low is little too deep here and still uncertainties as to how much cold air that could engage on its northern flank.

The trouble some feature is that shortwave hanging around Iceland which stops a better wedge of heights developing to the nw but enough in this run to keep the interest going for coldies.

I’ll give it a few more runs if I must ! 

[bluearmy]

The ec op is picking up on the likelihood of the Atlantic trough digging for a day which would drive a day’s springlike temps the further se you are

thereafter the wedges and amplification take over imo - the 06z gfs op would have been of great interest later week 2  if shortwaves around Greenland had been a bit different.