Model output discussion - the beast arrives

[Purga]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

Look at the latest fax chart showing the front much further south than the earlier one for the same time

Latest                                                            Earlier

Good if you want to prolong the cold!

EDIT: Sorry the second fax had updated when I copied it to Sat. but rest assured the old one did show the fronts more advanced!

 

 

[Rustynailer]

Channel runner, anybody, final call.

The output from by the models, is that similar, I could do a pirouette...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So we close in on Emma, where will she go, how far north, back west, split and slide east.  Well I am very interested in 12 ECM.....far from over...indeed it hasn’t even started yet ?.  ‘Blockbuster’ snow for some to come.

BFTP

Edited February 28, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all. Gfs and ecm differ greatly short to mid term ,agree somewhat at day ten for cold returning to the UK. . Tomorrow's sweetspot  for heavy snow is the southwest of  England and probably southeast Wales  ,Fridays front moving up from the south looks like dying and introducing  somewhat milder weather 

[Summer Sun]

Unsurprisingly the ECM mean isn't as cold as the op

[Skullzrulerz]

So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

Others have hinted and the fact we haven’t reached what is going to happen and the difficulty in ‘deciding’ the outcome.....what’s disappointing?

Have you seen Schafernaker’s forecast last Monday to how it may occur now?   

BFTP  

Edited February 28, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

Not disappointing to me, we are currently in severe wintry weather, some areas are looking at feet of snow and there is an olive branch from the Ecm 12z for very cold weather next week across much of the uk, in particular further north..hope wintry weather continues through to mid march or even further ahead!

[Matthew.]

A lot of nervous people about if the ECM verified. Maybe not a bad thing if it doesnt

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

A bit hard to follow it when they haven’t come out yet!

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Others have hinted and the fact we haven’t reached what is going to happen and the difficulty in ‘deciding’ the outcome.....what’s disappointing?

 

BFTP  

Sorry but what's disappointing is that I have seen this happen before when it's one run of cold like this and the very next it's bye bye sure it has a change of happing but perhaps not as cold ? But unless more models side with this I'm not buying as of yet 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Not disappointing to me, we are currently in severe wintry weather, some areas are looking at feet of snow and there is an olive branch from the Ecm 12z for very cold weather next week across much of the uk, in particular further north..hope wintry weather continues through to mid march or even further ahead!

I’d probably think it a bit concerning if we are still under an amber snow alert in May ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Sorry but what's disappointing is that I have seen this happen before when it's one run of cold like this and the very next it's bye bye sure it has a change of happing but perhaps not as cold ? But unless more models side with this I'm not buying as of yet 

Ahhh...I think don’t buy anything yet

 

BFTP

Edited February 28, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ahhh...I think don’t but anything yet

 

BFTP

I suppose your right since I must admit I am a fan of cold it could but we shall see...

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op at the bottom of the spread thankfully between the 4th and 7th

I'm hoping for a repeat of March 2013!!..anyway, what a spell we are in, wonderful stuff and well modelled from some days out..let it snow ❄❄❄❄❄..fingers crossed spring is put firmly on hold indefinitely if the Ecm 12z op is the trend!

Edited February 28, 2018 by Frosty.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

OMG this is so exciting and I’m not even in the UK. 

Absolutely thrilled to see this ECM upgrade , please verify ! 

It would be fantastic to see folk get to enjoy more snow and more time to enjoy it.

 

Well, well... agree 100%. Longevity would be fabulous... cold patterns once again suggest a dogged determination to hang around. I’m awaiting the first snow in 5 years to hit the SW tomorrow - if it can hang around until Monday I’ll be grinning. ?

Storm track being so far south perhaps aiding in adjusting modelling as it is forced away from northerly bias. The excellent recent post on model setup suggested approximations entered into model algorithms based upon experience and judgement. This setup is probably not one that algorithm writers have often had a chance to adapt to. SSW impacting.

Still not as bitter and snowy in the longer term as looked to be the case a week ago, but a definite step in the right direction.

[JBMWeatherForever]

I personally think the ECM may be where the others follow. Not many days ago all the models forecast prolonged cold due to a renewed wave from the north east. The ECM is just reverting back to the original solution as we now close in on what really happens with the depression to the south. I would not bet against the ECM solution.

 

 

[bluearmy]

Remember when we had that very mobile ecm op when we were expecting the Scandi high to appear ??  Is tonights op the opposite version of that !!!

tbf, we have had plenty of indications that this solution was still feasible though unlikely 

[chionomaniac]

We have been discussing in the southern thread about tomorrow. @kold weather has correctly pointed out that the wind in the SE is more a ENE rather than straight Easterly as suggested -  http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

 

  . Chris Fawkes via twitter thinks that the modeling may be wrong and that the system and precip may be more east tomorrow as suggested by the Hirlam.

 

One to watch

[Snowyowl9]

ECM run tonight looks alien.

[BleakMidwinter]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

OMG this is so exciting and I’m not even in the UK. 

Absolutely thrilled to see this ECM upgrade , please verify ! 

It would be fantastic to see folk get to enjoy more snow and more time to enjoy it.

 

Yet again, can I sneak in a quick THANKYOU to you and everyone else in here who has been so good at explaining what I'\m looking at when you post a chart - it means I've been really able to enjoy the excitement - and still am doing!

I'll remember this cold period for a long time, not just because of the weather but because it is the first time I've had ANY slight understanding of how all these charts and models and so on actually work! 

[Weathizard]

Although it is an outlier (let's be honest here that's a pretty huge one) you simply cannot ignore the ECM op run coming up with an outcome like that.

 

Its a higher resolution to its ensemble suite and although a rank outsider right now, you never know. Put it this way if cold was inbound and the ECM threw a mild outlier in early on I would certainly take notice. Intriguing viewing that's for sure.

[Summer Sun]

12z ECM ens for the central belt of Scotland shows a slower recovery in the 850's

Today they are around -15 by Monday the mean increases to around -7 by the 10th it is around -5

[Summer Sun]

Early stages of ICON 18z and the -8 850's are a bit further south to the 12z

[Weathizard]

Icon following the ECM?